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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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We will close out the month of August with a 13-game main slate heading our way this evening. Note: the second leg of the MIA @ NYM doubleheader (seven-inning game) will be included within the DraftKings main slate, bringing the total to 14 games over there. A fairly high amount of gas can arms are scheduled to take the mound today so lookout for a few high-scoring affairs. For a slate this size, I’m not a huge fan of the pitching options top to bottom but it’s far from the worst group of SPs to choose from. Let’s try to land on the right plays today and boost the bankroll up just in time for football season. Let’s get it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There is only one notable trouble spot on this main slate (PHI @ WAS) but if you’re looking to play that STL @ CIN single-game slate at 6:40 ET, beware that there is a strong possibility that the contest gets postponed due to being affected by the outer storm bands from Ida.

Best hitting environments: PHI @ WAS, CLE @ KC, OAK @ DET, PIT @ CWS

Best pitching environments: BOS @ TB, COL @ TEX

PHI @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): There will be a pretty notable possibility of rain throughout this game which could start of light but become heavier as the game goes along. At the time of this writing, it’s a little too far out to get a solid read on how things will turn out, so check the outlook here closer to lock. Also remember, when it comes to weather decisions in Washington, they’ve had a very shaky history of making some ‘unexpected’ calls.

OAK @ DET (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing out to right at 10 mph.

PIT @ CWS (8:10 ET, 9 O/U): Winds blowing out to right near 15 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $10.6k | @ SF

The consistency hasn’t been there from Woodruff lately but that has resulted in some lowered DFS salaries, particularly on DK where his $9,400 price tag is his second-lowest since mid-May. He is still posting up some strong strikeout numbers (27.9% kRate L5Gms) and should have a solid expected workload of around 100 pitches. Also, remember that his recent low fantasy score which came against the Cubs was partially due to getting pulled from the game early (after 3.0 IP) due to being struck by a line drive. He was cleared of injury from being hit by that comebacker but struggling in his following start a week later before ultimately bouncing back in a big way in his most recent game (vs. CIN - 6.0 IP, 104 pitches, 4 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 10 K, 34.5 DKFP/58 FDFP). The Giants have posted some poor numbers offensively as of late and in their last 102 PA vs. RHPs at home, they’re hitting for a mere .179 AVG with a .223 wOBA, .095 ISO, 42 wRC+ and 32.4% kRate. The San Fran bats could certainly bounce back at any moment but Woodruff won’t be an easy guy to right the ship against. Woodruff posted a pretty nice outing against the Giants when he last faced them on August 7th, going six innings on 104 pitches while allowing one run (solo HR) on six hits while recording eight strikeouts. I would look for a similar, if not better, performance today.

Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k | vs. PIT

I’d look for Giolito to likely be the highest owned pitcher on this slate but there is plenty to like here. He has faced some pretty stout competition in his last four starts -- @ MIN, vs. NYY, @ TB, @ TOR. However, in those four games (25.0 IP), he has given up only six runs (2.16 ERA) while accounting for a 2.78 xFIP, 0.80 WHIP, .180 opp AVG, .243 opp wOBA, and 31.6% kRate. The Pirates are having a rough time against righties recently and their 57 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last 14 days ranks them dead last in the MLB in that span. They’ve also only accounted for a .104 ISO vs. RHPs during those games as well, which takes some home run concerns out of the picture given the near-15 mph winds scheduled to be blowing out at Guaranteed Rate Field this evening.

Blake Snell (LHP), SD | DK: $7.7k, FD: $9.4k | @ ARI

Snell is set to check in as the go-to SP2 candidate on DraftKings at his underpriced $7,700 salary. He’s been excellent as of late, accounting for a sharp 2.12 ERA in his previous five starts (105 pitches/gm) alongside a strong 0.98 WHIP and a massive 37.9% kRate. Two of those five starts came against this same Arizona team. The trend with Snell this year has been his noticeably awful road splits (7.01 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, .301 opp AVG in 13 road starts) and his inability to pitch into the fifth inning. However, he is kicking those trends to the curb lately and should be worthy of consideration against an erratic D-backs offense.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Some of the more obvious teams to give stack consideration to based off of appealing match-ups and implied Vegas run totals include:

• Toronto Blue Jays vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

• Chicago White Sox vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

• New York Yankees vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

Secondary Stacks

Minnesota Twins vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

So the Twins lineup top to bottom isn’t necessarily crushing, but they have a handful of guys towards the top of the order who have been delivering their fair share of home runs and other XBHs (Donaldson, Polanco, Sano, Kepler). They also recently got Byron Buxton back in the lineup who, if you recall, was looking like a legit MVP candidate in the very early portion of the season before a couple of injuries derailed his 2021 campaign. Davies has acquired a 7.94 ERA and 4.4 HR/9 Rate across his last five starts and he also hasn’t been particularly effective on the road this season where he has posted a 1.57 WHIP and 5.23 xFIP. If Minnesota can knock Davies around early, they could see some extra at-bats against a Cubs bullpen which has a league-worst 2.24 HR/9 Rate over the last month along with a 7.33 ERA and 1.56 WHIP.

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

The Astros don’t carry a standout team total into this slate (4.2 implied runs) but they could exceed expectations on the road tonight against Yusei Kikuchi. If you run through Kikuchi’s previous nine starts (44.0 IP) dating back to July 7th, he has accounted for a 6.75 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .304 AVG, .405 wOBA, and 2.30 HR/9 Rate. He does have a 4.10 xFIP in that span, so it’s fair to assume he has fallen on the wrong side of things when it comes to the luck factor of baseball. But Houston is a team that has historically had Kikuchi’s number as the current Astros roster is hitting .280 against him with a .384 wOBA and only a 14.1% kRate in 142 plate appearances. Houston has also been strong in general against southpaws and have landed at 134 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last two weeks (ranks 6th) while striking out a league-low 15.7% of the time. They won’t provide Kikuchi with many easy outs tonight.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

This is purely a leverage stack against Snell, who should be fairly popular tonight especially over on DraftKings. If Snell all of a sudden snaps back into being that awful pitcher who struggles in away games (7.01 ERA, 1.96 WHIP, .301 opp AVG in 13 road starts), then you may get some production out of some extremely low owned D-Backs bats. Arizona has been sneaky decent against lefties lately to begin with and have hit .291 with a .357 wOBA, 120 wRC+,and 19.8% kRate vs. LHPs in their last 172 plate appearances.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/3B Vlad Guerrero Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

1B CJ Cron | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

C Sal Perez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Jaime Barria (RHP), LAA

2B/OF Ian Happ | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3k | vs. John Gant (RHP), MIN

OF Luis Robert | DK: $4.2k, FD: $4k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

2B/3B/SS Josh Harrison | DK: $3.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. John Gant (RHP), MIN

2B/3B/SS Yonny Hernandez | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

OF Jake Meyers | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

OF Brandon Marsh | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

Teoscar was white-hot through a home run fueled mid-August stretch but since August 20th he has just four hits in 11 games resulting in a .093 AVG. He did smack a two-RBI double in last night’s game, so let’s see if that gives him a bit of confidence swinging the bat heading into tonight. He should get two or three cracks at lefty Keegan Akin this evening who has given up his fair share of home runs this year. He’s permitted a .199 ISO and 1.80 HR/9 Rate to RHBs on the season and has allowed a 49.3% Fly Ball Rate over the last month. Akin has been awful on the road as well, accounting for an 8.25 ERA, 1.89 WHIP, .340 AVG, .416 wOBA, and 2.25 HR/9 Rate in 36.0 IP. Hernandez has homered off of Akin already this season and has boasted a .368 ISO vs. LHPs in his last 150 games. Bryce Harper got us going with the home run call yesterday, so let’s see if we can start the week 2-for-2!

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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