Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

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A walk off....balk? It happened last night in Arizona. Not only was the walk off balk a crazy way to finish the game but it all started because Tim Locastro reached base on a strikeout! Locastro struck out but the ball got past Russell Martin and Locastro managed to reach first base. He stole second and then advanced to third on a single by Adam Jones. Dodgers pitcher Yimi Garcia then balked which sent Locastro home. It was the bottom of the ninth in a tie game. A walk off balk. I was actually surprised to learn it happens more often than I realized. Regardless, Arizona has now won five straight and while it will be a serious uphill battle, they are keeping their names in the playoff conversation at 4.5 games back of the Cubs in the National League Wild Card race.

Today is a nine game slate. The pool of pitchers I would be comfortable using is fairly narrow and it's also a Coors slate, so in large field tournaments you're going to have to get creative figuring how how to differentiate yourself if you want to stack that game.

Here are the match ups and Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook ⛅️

All is quiet from a weather perspective at this point. There are no legitimate threats of rain and no winds that need to be noted in any of the parks today. It will be hot in a few spots including Coors (89 degrees) and Texas (90 degrees) which also happen to be the best hitter's parks in the game. Coors currently carries a 13.5 O/U and Texas does not have a total yet but I would peg it around an 11 O/U which would make these two games stand out above the rest.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray, CIN | DK: $10.8K, FD: $10.7K | RHP | vs. St. Louis Cardinals

Standing out above the rest today is Strasburg in a home match up against the Marlins. Let's not get cute, he's your top pitcher in cash games. It's pivoting off of Strasburg that makes things interesting today. Do we pay up for Kershaw or do we pay down for Gray? While Kershaw's resurgence, now that he appears finally back to full health (knock on wood), has been as impressive as ever, Gray has been equally impressive in his effort to revitalize his career this season. In fact, you could make a real argument that Gray has been the best pitcher in baseball in the second half. In his last five starts he owns a 0.90 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, and 32.8% strikeouts. During that same span, from a fantasy perspective, Gray has gone toe to toe with Kershaw with both pitchers averaging 24.7 fantasy points per game (DraftKings scoring). Yet, Gray is still $1,000 less expensive on both sites. I like Kershaw just fine and if you want to pay up for him I wouldn't talk you out of it. But strictly from a return on investment angle, if we assume Gray can continue to match Kershaw's fantasy production point for point as he's done over the last month, then there's no reason to not take the savings here and invest that money elsewhere in our lineups.

Dallas Keuchel, ATL | DK: $9.6K, FD: $8.4K | LHP | vs. Chicago White Sox

Keuchel is not typically thought of as a high upside pitching option. He's made his money by 1) holding out most of this season and 2) being a reliable, back of the rotation, innings eater who forces a ton of ground balls and limits damage to keep his team in the game. After a less than ideal start to his Braves career, he has more recently not only looked like what the Braves front office was hoping for but has also flashed some consistent ceiling we aren't used to seeing. In his last three starts he's allowed a total of just one earned run but has seven strikeouts in each outing. There's no reason for us to believe he can't keep that going today against one of the most strikeout prone teams in baseball. The White Sox own just a .319 wOBA and .155 ISO while striking out 24% of the time against left-handed pitching. To make matters even worse (or better since we are rostering Keuchel) this game is in Atlanta, a national league park, which means Chicago will lose the DH in place of the pitcher which will just further increase the available strikeouts in this lineup. The price is beginning to get a little out of control on DraftKings as he approaches five figure territory but given how great this match up is, there is still a path to this being a worthy investment. On FanDuel, with a $1200 discount, he makes for a fine pivot, particularly in cash games, off the more expensive Strasburg if you're looking to save some money for Coors bats today.

Brock Burke, TEX | DK: $7.2K, FD: $7.6K | LHP | vs. Seattle Mariners

The cheap pitching tier today is tricky. At one point, I considered making a case for (throws up in mouth) Dylan Bundy against the Royals. Then, I realized I needed to be able to look myself in the mirror and there's just no way I could do that knowing that I tried to make a legitimate argument for rostering him. The only case to be made is the fact that he's facing the Royals but let's not forget that Bundy once gave up seven earned runs and four home runs to Kansas City without ever recording an out in a game last season. He finds away to mess up even the best match ups and, personally, I just can't trust him.

Everyone else in this range either won't pitch deep enough into the game to pay off their salary or is in a horrible match up and we'll be stacking against them with (maybe) the exception of Brock Burke. The case to be made for Burke is he's been excellent in his first two major league starts with a 0.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. His strikeout rate is below average 18.8% but gets a nice boost today against the Mariners who own a strikeout rate of 25.4% against left-handed pitching (5th most in baseball). The case to be made against Burke is we are basing this on a small sample size and he's likely to experience regression. This game is also in a very hitter friendly ballpark. He's far from safe and the floor is non-existent here, but given the lack of usable options around him, I'm willing to roll the dice in a plus match up (despite the bad ballpark) that he can do enough to pay off his still reasonable price tag today.

Full disclosure: I will have some Burke today but I will be (#hedgelife) rolling out hedge stacks as well to protect myself, as my confidence level isn't enough for me to take a full stand here. I felt like I could make the strongest argument for Burke but there are cases to be made against all the pitchers in this price range tonight.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Disclaimer: All teams in these hitter-friendly parks are "stackable" by default and won’t be highlighted in this section.

Boston Red Sox vs. Dillon Peters (LHP), Los Angeles Angels

Peters has allowed a total of 10 runs (seven earned) in his last two starts. In August he owns a 4.76 ERA (4.60 SIERA) while allowing 43.2% hard contact and six home runs in four starts. The Red Sox need a lot of help at 5.5 games back of the AL Wild Card but they've won three straight and seven of their last ten. They aren't dead yet. The right-handed bats are very interesting here as Peters is allowing a .378 wOBA and .225 ISO in his last 20 starts. That puts Xander, Betts, and Martinez all firmly in play (they are expensive). People may avoid Devers today (also expensive) in a lefty/lefty match up but that would be a mistake as Devers owns a .898 wOBA+ISO against lefties in his last 31 plate appearances. A more affordable option here is Christian Vazquez who owns a .585 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching this season.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), Arizona Diamondbacks

It's one of those rare days where the Dodgers are actually shaping up to be a sneaky stack. We talk about how volatile Ray is in this article often but he's not necessarily a pitcher most people go out of their way to attack. Today, with this Dodgers lineup, it looks like a good day to try and jump on the other side of the volatility and get some bats in the lineup against him. He's actually been pretty good about limiting dingers recently. He hasn't allowed a home run in four straight starts. His issue continues to be walks with an awful 10.8% walk rate. This could get him into a lot of trouble against the Dodgers who are dangerous from top to bottom in this lineup. A couple of free passes and then one swing of the bat and Ray's night is over. Justin Turner is in a great spot today for a reasonable salary. He has a 1.041 wOBA+ISO in his last 29 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Kike Hernandez and Will Smith are both priced in the mid $4K range as well and own a .757 wOBA+ISO and a .614 wOBA+ISO, respectively.

Washington Nationals vs. Pablo Lopez (RHP), Miami Marlins

Unsurprisingly, Lopez did not look sharp in his first game back from the IL. He allowed four earned runs (one home run) and had just three strikeouts in five innings of work. Today, he takes a terrible park shift going away from pitcher friendly Miami to Washington to take on the Nationals who are 8-2 in their last ten games and sit 2.5 games ahead in the National League Wild Card. Juan Soto is one of the top bats on this slate with a ridiculous .520 wOBA, .499 ISO, and 3.36 FP/PA in his last 61 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. You get some affordable options in this lineup as well including Victor Robles (.611 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against right-handed pitching) and Brian Dozier (.645 wOBA+ISO in his last 20 games against right-handed pitching).

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Evan Longoria, SF | 3B | DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.1K | vs. Joey Lucchesi, SD

It's not a great hitters park but there is a lot of value in his salary tonight. Longoria is a career lefty crusher and, while this has obviously been a season (or past couple of seasons) plagued by injuries, he's maintained his ability to hit lefties. Since returning from the IL earlier this month he owns a .496 wOBA and .308 ISO with 3.00 FP/PA against left-handed pitching.

Jorge Soler, KC | OF | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.7K | vs. Dylan Bundy, BAL

What if I told you there was a player who hit his 38th home run of the season last night but only cost $4.3K on DraftKings and $3.7K on FanDuel and was facing Dylan Bundy today - would that interest you? Yea, me too. Soler's absolute dominance this season continued again yesterday with his third straight double-digit fantasy point performance. He has a 46.4% hard contact rate with a 96.8 mph average exit velocity over the past two weeks and he's facing, arguably, the most home run prone pitcher in baseball today.

Matt Joyce, ATL | OF | DK: $4K, FD: $2.4K | vs. Reynaldo Lopez, CWS

His price isn't moving. He's essentially a free square, particularly in cash games, in the middle of this excellent Atlanta Braves order. He put up his second consecutive double-digit fantasy performance last night which was a massive return on his price tag and today he's the same price again. It's an excellent match up against Reynaldo Lopez who fights Dylan Bundy daily for the "most home run prone pitcher in baseball" title.

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