Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Welcome back for another week of some MLB DFS! I want to throw a quick shout out to the GOAT himself, Roland aka @ZeroInDenver for covering the MLB newsletters for me this past Thursday and Friday while I was out of town. You’re stuck with me once again but I’ll do my best to channel that ZeroInDenver energy!

The MLB is nearing the home stretch with only 34 days remaining in the regular season, so let’s try to cash in before heading into the postseason! Monday’s main slate will feature nine games worth of action. We’ll see some quality balance between pitching and hitting today so this should be a fun slate to navigate. There isn’t a whole lot in the way of weather to worry about as a result of eight games on the main slate being played either in domed ballparks or out on the West Coast where stormy conditions are rarely an issue. Let’s kick the workweek off right and reel in some cash!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As mentioned above in the intro, eight of nine games on this slate will either be played in domes or out on the West Coast so, predictably, there won’t be many weather-related issues to monitor today!

Best hitting environments: PHI @ WAS, BAL @ TOR, NYY @ LAA

Best pitching environments: BOS @ TB, COL @ TEX, SD @ ARI, HOU @ SEA

PHI @ WAS (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): There is at least some possibility of rain all throughout this game with the percentages rising towards the later innings. That may make starting pitchers slightly riskier due to some in-game delay risk, but all expectations point towards them being able to play all nine innings this evening.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Corbin Burnes (RHP), MIL | DK: $10.2k, FD: $11.5k | @ SF

I would view Burnes as a high-end leverage play as heavy ownership should land on Robbie Ray this evening. Burnes is coming off of one of his more lackluster starts of the season and travels to face the Giants who possess the best record in the MLB. However, Burnes will get to play in a pitcher-friendly ballpark and has been aces on the road this year. In 10 road starts (62.2 IP), Burnes has recorded a clean 5-0 record while maintaining a 1.87 ERA, 2.19 xFIP, 0.86 WHIP, 34% kRate, .195 opp AVG, and .222 opp wOBA. The San Fran bats are also quietly struggling lately and have only a .211 AVG, .284 wOBA, and 79 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks -- all figures which place them well inside the bottom 10 offenses in the league in that span. The Giants will also carry a low 3.4 implied run total to the table today.

Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.9k | vs. BAL

Robbie Ray is doing all he can to make a late season push for legitimate AL Cy Young award consideration. He has secured 25 strikeouts over his last two starts which have spanned 15 innings and 220 pitches. Anything can happen in baseball, but it will be hard to imagine him failing against a Baltimore offense that has won only two games in their last 24 outings. Ray will be highly popular today, but I don’t worry much about chalky ownership in MLB particularly when it comes to pitching. It’s fairly easy to just differentiate lineups with your hitters/stacks. Toronto will be absolutely massive favorites today with -340 odds to win.

DK Only: AJ Alexy (RHP), TEX | $4, 700 | vs. COL

Alexy is only available in the DraftKings player pool but he’ll make for an interesting contrarian punt option today as an SP2. This will be Alexy’s MLB debut so he could easily go out there on the big stage and get rocked. That’s always a risk with these guys making their first appearance in The Show. But I do like what I’m seeing out of his minor league numbers, albeit a limited sample size. In 2021, Alexy has 50.1 IP at the Double-A level and 14.2 IP in Triple-A. He has accounted for a 28.8% kRate (AA) and 33.3% kRate (AAA) in that time while acquiring a 1.61/1.84 ERA and holding hitters to a .173/.176 AVG. Colorado is a bottom 10 offense versus RHPs and if the Rangers can squeeze five innings or so out of AJ Alexy, there’s a plausible chance he returns a value with this $4,700 price tag. Risk it for the biscuit!

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

A few of the more obvious offenses to target based off of Vegas totals and match-ups include:

• Toronto Blue Jays

• San Diego Padres

• Los Angeles Dodgers

Secondary Stacks

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

Gray has shown some solid strikeout stuff (27.8% kRate) and has maintained a respectable 3.75 ERA across 36 IP in his rookie season, but he also has the noticeable tendency to give up extra base hits, particularly home runs. His 3.00 HR/9 Rate and 12.6% Barrel% are the highest figures among all starting pitchers today. Gray has allowed a huge .321 ISO to RHBs and .250 ISO to LHBs along with a massive 58.9% Fly Ball Rate. If the Phillies can rock Gray early on, they’ll see some extra at-bats against a Washington bullpen that has posted a league-worst 5.61 xFIP over the last month.

Houston Astros vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Flexen is having a legitimately solid season for the Mariners and is certainly capable of holding just about any offense in check when he’s on top of his game. However, the Astros are not an easy offense to contend with. They’ve been hot in many of their games lately and have posted a 124 wRC+ over the last two weeks which trails only the Tampa Bay Rays (127 wRC+) on the slate. The last time Flexen went up against Houston, which was about a month ago (7/27), he has arguably his worst performance of the season. Across four innings and 75 pitches, Flexen allowed seven earned runs on nine hits while only striking out three. If we see that version of Chris Flexen again, several Houston bats should work out nicely.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs, German Marquez (RHP), COL

Rostering starting pitchers against the Rangers has been a recipe for success for much of the season but that has not been the case all too often lately. Texas has led the Majors with a .288 batting average versus RHPs over the last two weeks alongside a strong 115 wRC+ (ranks 4th) and .338 wOBA (ranks 5th) in that same stretch. Marquez is a really solid pitcher but he has shown some notable struggles as of late and has landed at a 6.04 ERA over his last five starts. You don’t have to go crazy with full five-man Ranger stacks, but getting even two or three of these cheap hitters into a lineup would open up plenty of salary elsewhere. Perhaps the trend will start to go downward, but Texas has been coming through more often than not recently!

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

SS/2B Trea Turner | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

SS Bo Bichette | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

3B Manny Machado | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Wil Myers | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Kyle Tyler (RHP), LAA

2B/3B/SS Yonny Hernandez | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.6k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B Christian Walker | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

OF Jake Meyers | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

I’m predicting Josiah Gray to give up at least two home runs tonight and I’ll look for Harper to get one of ‘em. Gray has allowed a .250 ISO and 2.51 HR/9 Rate to LHBs this season. Meanwhile, Harper is looking dialed in with a .320 AVG, .429 ISO, and .480 wOBA over the last month. He’s homered five times against RHPs in his last 20 games and has created 54.5% Hard Contact vs. RHPs in the last two weeks along with an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph (95th percentile). With a majority of games being played in domes or out on the West Coast, this will also be one of the best home run hitting environments on the slate. Temperatures will hover in the mid-80s with light winds blowing out.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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