Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🚨 3rd Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC South for the upcoming NFL DFS season! 🚨

🔊 8/30 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Greg Landry

• 3:57 Anibal Sanchez vs. Miami

• 7:51 Wheeler or Nola?

• 10:34 Wade Miley on FD

• 14:37 Twins Stack

• 16:04 White Sox @ Braves

• 19:17 STL Bats

• 22:34 Offense @ Coors

• 26:20 Red Sox @ Angels

• 29:04 Betting Lines & HR Calls

It’s time to saddle up for a 14-game Friday main slate to kick off our Labor Day weekend! I don’t know about you but I feel like I can already predict that things are going to get a bit strange this evening. There are plenty of great pitching options to choose from but absolutely nothing feels ‘safe.’ Coors Field and Globe Life Park are both in play along with several other match-ups that carry double digit totals. To me, this just seems like a “no holds barred” kinda evening. Anything goes. I’ll do my best not to get too long-winded here and just recommend that you go with your gut tonight. There is absolutely no specific right or wrong way to approach this one.

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook ⛅️

CIN @ STL will be the primary game to monitor. There is a pretty reasonable chance of a washout with currently a 50+% chance of storms during the time frame in which this game is to be played. For now I’m considering this one risky enough to where I will avoid mentioning any players from this game. However, there is still a decent possibility that they get this one in, so be sure to check the forecast closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider

Madison Bumgarner (LHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $9.2k | vs. San Diego Padres

Admittedly, when I took a first glance at this slate I didn’t think MadBum would have been the high-salary pitcher that I would ultimately choose to highlight. Sure, Bieber and Nola have the better ceilings, but Bumgarner is undoubtedly worth some consideration as well. He has a 2.95 ERA (3.79 xFIP), 0.93 WHIP, and a 25.7% kRate at home this season where he also averages +54.1% more fantasy points. The Padres may hit lefties considerably better than righties but they’re not generating much power with just a .150 team ISO versus LHPs over the last month (ranks 27th). San Diego also hasn’t eclipsed five runs on offense in their last 13 games so, really, what are the chances that Madison Bumgarner is the pitcher they end up shelling? The Giants are only slight -130 favorites but this game carries a 7.5 O/U -- a low sort of total that you don’t see too often in the MLB these days.

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $7.5k, FD: $8.8k | vs. Chicago White Sox

When it comes to Fried’s match-up tonight, I definitely don’t love the fact that the White Sox are so extremely righty heavy. Still, Fried’s 3.46 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA on the season ranks second among all starting pitchers today, trailing only Shane Bieber. Similar to the Padres, the White Sox are generally more efficient versus southpaws (no surprise considering all of the RHBs they deploy) but they do a poor job at creating power against them with just a .166 team ISO over the last month (ranks 24th). While I don’t expect Fried to have one of his best games in this spot, I’d be surprised if he has anything resembling a poor outing. The Braves are at home and are one of the heavier favorites of the day as well (-210) so Fried has a great chance to position himself for both a win and a quality start.

John Means (LHP) | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.5k | @ Kansas City Royals

Continuing the lefty trend, we have John Means who could represent a strong value. Means certainly hasn’t been as effective as he was prior to the All-Star break when he pitched himself to a 2.50 ERA (6.23 ERA in seven games since) but, in his defense, he’s had to face some pretty tough competition, including the Red Sox as well as the Yankees in back-to-back starts. Fortunately, the Royals have been one of the worst teams against LHPs. In the last month versus lefties, Kansas City has only an 84 wRC+ (ranks 28th) with a .230 AVG (28th), .301 wOBA (27th), and .174 ISO (21st). Rolling out Means is not the safest proposition tonight, especially on the road where he tends to struggle, but for his given prices he possesses a strong ceiling.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field & Globe Life Park Disclaimer: All teams in these hitter-friendly parks are stack-able by default and won’t be highlighted in this section.

Minnesota Twins vs. Edwin Jackson (RHP), Detroit Tigers

Just like Maryland does crab cakes and football, Minnesota does dingers and runs. Their 261 home runs this season, and 1.95 HR/gm, are tops in baseball. Most are probably aware by now that Edwin Jackson, at times, looks like he is more qualified to pitch in the Home Run Derby as opposed to an actual baseball game. His 3.08 HR/9 is easily the worst mark on the slate, along with his 1.87 WHIP and .333 opponent batting average. He’s had pretty terrible reverse splits as of late so if you want to favor the righty Twins bats I wouldn’t argue against it. But really, just about anyone is in play here and outside of the big bats,you can find some cheaper, high-ceiling hitters towards the back of the order with guys like Jake Cave, Jonathan Schoop, and CJ Cron.

New York Yankees vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), Oakland Athletics

Hooray, the Yankees are back home in New York! Now we don’t have to twiddle our thumbs while waiting on their starting lineup to be released. The Yankees may be a more obvious team to target but, given their insane home run upside, you have to run up some NYY stacks if you’re rolling out multiple lineups. Their 72 home runs over the last month is tops in the majors by a significant margin (Twins are second with 55 HRs). Anderson doesn’t often get blown up and he has only allowed 1.08 HR/9 this season with a 1.30 WHIP. But his 12% kRate is one of the lowest strikeout rates among all MLB starters so if that simply leads to more Yankee bats making contact, then I’ll take the chance on them knocking two or three out of the park. DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Mike Ford are the preferred targets for me this evening. I'll take the en fuego Aaron Judge as my home run call of the evening! 💣

Baltimore Orioles vs. Eric Skoglund (LHP), Kansas City Royals

I love the occasional O’s stack because they’re typically never highly owned, especially on large slates, but in the second half of the season they have routinely popped off for those seven and eight run games -- typically featuring multiple home runs. Skoglund only has five MLB innings pitched this season in his one recent start at Cleveland so there isn’t much to go off of there. However, looking at his 2019 numbers in Triple-A, he was clearly struggling. In 11 AAA starts (63.0 IP), Skoglund posted a 2-4 record with a poor 6.14 ERA (6.46 xFIP), 1.52 WHIP, 1.71 HR/9, and an opponent .309 AVG. The Royals bullpen has also been in a downward spiral lately while allowing a 6.17 ERA over the last month with a 1.66 WHIP, 1.72 HR/9, and a .291 AVG. Jonathan Villar, Hanser Alberto, and Trey Mancini are the preferred targets while DJ Stewart stands out as a potential value pick.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

OF JD Martinez ( R ) | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

Wellp, here I am again targeting Martinez with a lefty on the mound. I feel like the last two or three times I’ve written him up as a one off, he has gone about 1-for-12. We’ll see how he shakes out today. His splits versus LHPs are incredibly strong. Against southpaws, he’s batting .397 with a 1.010 wOBA+ISO while creating 46.7% Hard Contact. Jose Suarez is allowing a .352 average to righties alongside a .709 wOBA+ISO on 47.6% Hard Contact. People would have plenty of reasons to predict Martinez going yard tonight.

OF Sam Hilliard ( R ) | DK: $4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dario Agrazal (RHP), PIT

Hilliard has a homer in each of his first two MLB starts so, given the fact that it’s rare to find a Coors Field hitter for this cheap, hopefully the Rockies continue to roll him out in the lineup. Hilliard had 35 HRs in 126 games with a /296 ISO in Triple-A this season, so his quick start isn’t exactly a surprise. Agrazal isn’t much of a threat to slow anyone down and he’s shown poor reverse splits this season, allowing a .305 AVG, .374 wOBA, and .200 ISO to RHBs with just a 9.4% kRate. If Hilliard lands anywhere in the lineup tonight, he’s a play.

3B Abraham Toro (S) | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Trent Thornton (RHP), TOR

Toro has started at third base for six of Houston’s last seven games. After launching his first major league homer last night, I imagine he will find his way in the order once again. This Astros offense is too potent to avoid a guy who is this cheap. Looking at his minor league numbers, Toro doesn’t profile necessarily as a power hitter but in 16 Triple-A games he boasted a .424 AVG with a 178 wRC+. With Toro sandwiched between other highly capable hitters, you would think that he’ll have multiple opportunities to produce some ‘ribbies’ and runs.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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