Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter & LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Shout out to the crowd favorite @ZeroInDenver for covering the MLB newsletter yesterday! Now I feel like I’m back in high school doing a presentation immediately following up the popular kid in class. But you’re stuck with me today, so I’ll do my best to provide some helpful winning DFS info! There is certainly no shortage of information to dig into on this evening’s all-encompassing 15-game MLB slate. We’re loaded up with plenty of quality pitching, viable stack options, and a multitude of enticing one-offs/mini stacks as well. So, let’s get straight to the point and go win ourselves some dinero!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

I’d say we’ve lucked out today with a near-pristine forecast aside from one potential trouble spot out at Coors Field.

Best hitting environments: MIN @ CIN, CHC @ COL

Best pitching environments: NYY @ MIA, SEA @ TB, LAA @ TEX

CHC @ COL (8:40 ET, 11.5 O/U): This is looking like the only spot we need to keep an eye on today but any game in Coors Field is obviously going to carry notable DFS importance along with it. Currently, it appears that they’ll have about a 30% chance of seeing some scattered thunderstorms coming through the Denver area throughout the time frame in which this game is scheduled to be played. That could cause a delay at any point and a postponement scenario can’t 100% be ruled out at this time, but that would seem to be an unlikely outcome.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Zack Wheeler (RHP), PHI | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.7k | @ WAS

Wheeler is likely setting up to be the most popular pitcher on this slate and there’s a lot to like here. With Wheeler, you’re getting a top-level arm who is entrusted with one of the heaviest workloads in baseball. He has averaged 104 pitches/gm across his last five starts and 101 pitches/gm over his last 20, which leads all of today’s SPs. Among qualified MLB starters, Wheeler’s 2.78 xFIP is also tops in the league and he has produced a more-than-serviceable 29.8% kRate on the year. Aside from Juan Soto, there are not really any overly dangerous hitters in this watered down post-trade deadline Nationals lineup.

Dylan Cease (RHP), CWS | DK: $8.4k, FD: $8.3k | vs. KC

Cease has not exactly been dominating lately and he’s only averaged 15 DKFP/28.4 FDFP per game over his last five starts. On the flip side, that has resulted in his DFS prices dropping a bit, particularly on DK. For a mid-$8k pitcher, you’re getting a solidified workload (95 pitches/gm L5Gms) and a strong 29.3% kRate with a slate-best 14.6% Swinging Strike Rate. The Royals bats have been ice cold lately and they’ve accounted for a mere .247 wOBA and 52 wRC+ over the last week while striking out 24.3% of the time. Vegas has Cease and the White Sox pinned as massive -250 favorites today. Cease has also been more effective at home where he boasts a 2.44 ERA, 31.3% kRate, and has scored 34% more fantasy points, on average.

Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF | DK: $7k, FD: $8.1k | @ ARI

I have to be honest; I don’t believe I’ve rostered Johnny Cueto once all season but that may change today. His kRate has been creeping up lately, going from a 19.8% kRate in his last 20 starts, up to a 26.9% kRate over his previous five games and he’s rarely been walking hitters along the way (owns a slate-best 4.9% Walk Rate on the season). Despite not having great performances against Arizona in two previous meetings this year, Cueto has had strong overall success against D-backs hitters. Among the current D-backs roster, Cueto has held them to a low .194 AVG and .231 wOBA across 111 plate appearances. I’d prefer to target Cueto on DK where he should provide a serviceable floor for his $7k salary. The upside is not crazy high, but if you get 20 DKFP out of him, I think you’d take that any day given the unpredictable nature of pitching lately.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

Assuming they avoid getting rained out, the Coors Field match-up between the Chicago Cubs and Colorado Rockies should draw some consideration. I’m not really feeling insanely confident about any other teams to consider them a priority stack.

San Francisco Giants vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

MadBum has pitched fairly well across his last three starts but I’m not personally buying into the possibility that he’s a quality starting pitcher again. First off, running through a three game stretch against the Cubs, Pirates, and Rangers isn’t exactly a difficult set of opponents for a starting pitcher to face. Also, if you check his statcast data from the last month, it’s all pretty bad -- particularly his high 27.3% Line Drive% and low 23.6% Ground Ball Rate. A bad D-Backs bullpen will follow up Bumgarner once his day is done. The Giants have been a productive offense all season and across the last month, they rank 4th in the MLB with a 115 wRC+. They’ve averaged seven runs per game over their last five as well. Despite some injuries sidelining some good hitters, the recent acquisition of the hot-hitting Kris Bryant should continue to pay dividends. He should be targeted in any Giants stack along with guys like Buster Posey, Mike Yastrzemski, Brandon Crawford, and Darin Ruf. If Lamonte Wade Jr. (back) can suit up, he’s a core option as well.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

The Brew Crew gets the pleasure of facing Max Kranick for a second time in a six day span. Last Wednesday, they tagged Kranick up for 10 hits and six earned runs across his five innings. He has some awful statcast numbers over the last month, lowlighted by a 35.3% Line Drive%. Kranick’s 94.4 mph exit velocity allowed in the past 30 days places him in the bottom 5th percentile among pitchers and I just have no faith that he’ll be able to keep Milwaukee in check. Over the course of the season, the Brewers have been a generally underperforming offense and have been carried by an unbelievably strong pitching rotation, but they’ve began to right and have scored six runs or more in seven of their last ten games. I don’t see any reason why they should struggle tonight.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN

Despite being one of the strongest offenses in baseball, especially when they’re at home in Great American ‘Smallpark,’ I doubt many people will look to stack against a quality starting pitcher like Kenta Maeda. Maeda could certainly come away with a productive outing, but it won’t be easy. The main guys he may have trouble dealing with are Joey Votto, Kyle Farmer, Jonathan India, and Jesse Winker -- the first three guys have produced at least a 165 wRC+ over the last month and Winker has been showing incredible consistency at the plate lately as well. Max Schrock was recently recalled from the minors and is capable of some big games, too.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), MIN

3B/OF Kris Bryant | DK: $5k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI

1B/3B Patrick Wisdom | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

2B/3B/SS Jean Segura | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B Kolten Wong | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Robbie Grossman | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Garrett Richards (RHP), BOS

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Max Kranick (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Andrew Vaughn | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Kris Bubic (LHP), KC

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $2.6k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

1B/OF Connor Joe | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Zach Davies (RHP), CHC

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Luis Gil (RHP), NYY

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Hyun Jin Ryu (LHP), TOR

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

I’m going after some low-hanging fruit with my home run call today. Jordan Lyles has a slate-high 1.97 HR/9 Rate going into this evening’s game and Ohtani… well, Ohtani just hits bombs (and pitches pretty well, too). I don’t think I have to go into much statistical detail about how good Shohei Ohtani is. 

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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