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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/3 | Mondays are for Makin’ Money
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/3 | Mondays are for Makin’ Money
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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Note: I’m on a quick family vacation until Thursday so the newsletters will be abbreviated a bit. But I’m still putting in the same amount of research -- just gotta trim things down some in the writing department to save some time and get back to (safely) enjoying the beach and spending time with the fam. Though, Tropical Storm Isaias is kinda killing that vibe today.
Monday brings us a very balanced, mid-sized slate. We have a decent, but not overwhelming, amount of games, with eight on the docket. There are a few mega-talented pitchers to choose from but we also have several offenses in great spots -- most obviously with the Coors Field match-up. So, despite there being only eight games, tonight brings plenty of roster construction flexibility and a wide range of viable approaches. This should be another great night of sports so let’s get into it!
Match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
KC @ CHC: Some slight rain chances are in play but shouldn’t end up being a major threat to the actual game being played. Cool temps in the high 60s and 15 mph winds blowing in from left field will give a reasonably strong boost to the pitchers and downgrade to hitters.
NYM @ ATL: Tropical Storm Isaias shouldn’t end up moving far enough west to affect Atlanta but there are decent chances (15-25%) of some pop-up storms in the area -- which is, of course, pretty typical for Atlanta in the summertime.
PHI @ NYY: This game is probably the one I’d keep my eye on the most as ‘lock’ approached. The game starts off fine but storms are pretty likely to move in 2-3 hours after first pitch. I wouldn’t be incredibly worried about the starting pitchers, but do realize there is a possibility they won’t play all nine innings in this one.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Walker Buehler (RHP) | DK: $10.3k, FD: $10k | @ SD
In cash games, Gerrit Cole (DK: $11k, FD: $11k) is pretty obviously who you’d want to build around and Jacob deGrom (DK: $11.6k, FD: $10.7k) is a top GPP option. But that leads me to Buehler, who I view as a high-leverage target, albeit quite risky. The risk is pitch count restrictions, as he only threw 56 pitches across 3.2 innings in his season debut in Houston. If he can sniff about 80 pitches or so, he has a chance to put up a surprise performance against a Padres team that may be feeling the “Coors hangover” that many offenses succumb to in their first couple games back from playing a series at Coors Field. Also, against the current Padres lineup (40 PA), Buehler has an insane 47.5% kRate and allowed just a 0.196 wOBA. Pretty small sample size but he has certainly toasted the Padres over the last couple seasons.
Alec Mills (RHP) | DK: $8k, FD: $7k | vs. KC
Mills draws some great pitcher’s weather at home tonight with those 15 mph winds blowing in and he looked pretty solid in his season debut against Cincy where the only two runs he allowed across six innings came from a two-run homer from Nick Castellanos. I’d also expect him to throw more than three strikeouts in his second game of the season. The Royals have the 10th highest kRate against RHPs this season (24.7%) and have lost five of their last six games. There’s a pretty good chance Mills has a very respectable outing in this spot.
Frankie Montas (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $7.7k | vs. SEA
Montas has had two very unforgettable outings up to this point, combining for 9 IP, 8 H, 3 ER, and 8 K resulting in 21.9 DKFP and 42 FDFP. He hasn’t been bad by any means but there should be a wide open window for tonight’s game against Seattle to be his best 2020 start yet. Seattle has a 26.2% kRate versus RHPs this season (7th highest) and despite the fact that they’ve been an above average team in run production (112 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 14th), their lineup as a whole simply isn’t very intimidating and is likely due to regress. The A’s are one of the heaviest favored teams on this slate with -185 odds to win. So if Montas can get a solid 6+ innings of work in tonight, I could definitely see 20+ DKFP/35+ FDFP.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Giants, and Yankees will likely be the three highest owned stacks this evening. Certainly worth playing guys on those teams but I usually try to highlight less obvious stacks.
Minnesota Twins vs. Derek Holland (LHP), PIT
Minnesota is in a bit of a slump, scoring just 2.6 runs/game over their last five (but somehow managed to go 4-1 in that stretch) but they have high-caliber heavy-hitters in that lineup who can produce an offensive explosion at any point. Holland may have looked like he pitched well on paper during his season debut against Milwaukee (5.2 IP, 2 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 5 K on 90 pitches) but the Brewers’ .091 BABIP in that game against him should be considered a massive outlier. Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, and Miguel Sano are some of my favorite Twins bats to build stacks around. Keep an eye out for news on Josh Donaldson (calf) who has missed the last two games. Much like Nelson Cruz, he is a lefty crusher.
Update: No Polanco or Donaldson in the lineup tonight. Cruz, Sano, and Mitch Garver would be the main three guys I’d want to stack.
Chicago White Sox vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL
It’s only a 57 plate appearance sample size, but the White Sox have tagged up lefty pitching very, very well in the early goings of this season. Versus LHPs, as a team they’re batting .319 with a .420 wOBA and 176 wRC+ while striking out just 19.3% of the time. This will be Brett Anderson’s first action of the 2020 season but he is coming off of a year where he had a fairly poor 4.79 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, and only struck out 12.1% of batters while allowing a 40.2% Hard Contact Rate. If he only pitches for 3-5 innings, the Brewers bullpen has been giving up the long ball. In 26.2 IP, that bullpen has already allowed seven HRs (2.36 HR/9). Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Jose Abreu, and Yasmani Grandal are the preferred options with Edwin Encarnacion representing a major “boom/bust” target.
The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY
Cole will be the highest-owned pitcher tonight and it’s clearly unwise to stack teams against him 95% of the time. But the current Phillies lineup sneakily has a .333 AVG and .361 wOBA against him while striking out just 18.3% of the time (71 plate appearances). Again, it’s very unlikely to happen, but if Cole gets shelled early and you have the right Philly bats that caused said shelling, you’ve just landed some massive leverage on the field.
One-Off Hitters ☝️
OF Ramon Laureano | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA
Since the start of 2019, against lefties Laureano is batting .288 with a .358 wOBA, .234 ISO, and 128 wRC+. Sheffield didn’t look polished at all in his season debut and if he is forced to retire early, the Mariners bullpen has been quite bad, as they have posted a 5.31 xFIP (3rd worst) and allowed 2.16 HR/9. I’m liking a few of these A’s bats tonight but Laureano would probably be my favorite one in the lineup.
OF Matt Kemp | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF
The 35-year-old Kemp isn’t guaranteed to end up in the Rockies starting lineup tonight but if he is, you have to give him strong consideration as a cheap Coors Field option. He has homered in back-to-back games heading into tonight and has safely reached base on 8-of-16 at-bats (.500 OBP). Cueto isn’t the confirmed Giants pitcher at the time of this writing but I’m on board with Kemp no matter who San Fran throws out on the mound.
SS Kevin Newman | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Lewis Thorpe (LHP), MIN
It’s been a slow start for Newman, who is hitting just .180 in his first 28 ABs this season, but long-term he is a reliable hitter. He has a .307 AVG and .348 wOBA against LHPs over his last 150 games (155 PAs) and always has a premium spot in the lineup. He’ll be batting 2nd tonight and is coming in fresh off of a game where he blasted his first homer of the year. Perhaps something can really start clicking with his bat because we all know the Pirates need whatever help they can get.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
OF Mike Yastrzemski | DK: $5.9k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzales (RHP), COL
I still need to get on the board with the Home Run Call this season so I’ll cheese it up a bit by going out to Coors Field. Yastrzemski already has a couple dingers to his name this season and has boasted a .314 ISO thru 35 at-bats. Gonzalez had a 20% HR/FB rate against lefty hitters last season and Yas is hitting 46% fly balls against RHPs so far this year on a solid 40% Hard Contact Rate. He’s as solid of a bet as anyone to knock one out tonight.
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