Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

No podcast this weekend. Back Monday.

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Anybody know if Nathan Patterson is in the player pool today? Obviously, I’m kidding, but in case you missed it a very cool story happened in baseball yesterday. Patterson attended a Rockies game as a fan a few weeks back and participated in an event they were having where people could throw some pitches and get their speed measured against a radar gun. Patterson hit upper 90s including 96 twice. It was shared on social media, picked up by @PitchingNinja (among others) and yesterday Patterson signed a contract with the Oakland Athletics. What a world. I hope he gets his shot at the show one day, it would be quite the story. But for now, we have a lot of pitchers already in the big leagues to choose from on this massive 13 game slate. We have two of the biggest names dealt at the deadline making debuts on their new teams (Bauer and Stroman) and a more under the radar trade (Sanchez) making his debut in Houston tonight as well. Here’s a look at the Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook

The most interesting weather story today are the two hottest games of the night are actually at the two most hitter friendly parks in baseball. It’s going to be over 90 degrees at Coors Field and at Globe Life Park where the ball already flies. You’ll want exposure to the bats. Outside of those games, almost all the rest are going to be in the mid 80s (except in Oakland) with light winds, so no real major advantage to exploit. Atlanta carries the largest risk of rain, around 15%, so be sure to watch that when you check the forecast again closer to lock.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Walker Buehler, LAD | DK: $10.9K, FD: $11.4K | RHP | vs. San Diego

I wrote about Buehler in this article last weekend, as there are some significant differences in his numbers between the first and second half of the season. Prior to June 1st, Buehler had a 4.03 ERA (4.06 SIERA), 1.09 WHIP, 23.8% strikeouts, and 4.9% walks. Since June 1st, he has an outstanding 2.76 ERA (3.04 SIERA), 0.97 WHIP, 31.7% strikeouts, only 3.2% walks. Those are big drops in both ERA and SIERA, an improvement on what was already a solid WHIP, a massive increase in strikeout rate, and even a small dip in walk rate which was already below 5%. If you used him last week it wasn’t his best outing but in his defense of the seven runs allowed only four were earned and it was a challenging match up against a playoff contending Washington Nationals team. Today, I’m going to go right back to the well here. With all the aces on the mound today, Buehler has a chance to fly a little more under the radar, especially since he’s coming off a less than ideal outing. This is a great match up against the Padres who have fallen short of expectations this season though I believe the future is bright. They own a poor .308 wOBA and .156 ISO while striking out 26% of the time against right-handed pitching (3rd most in baseball). In cash games, for slightly less money and in a better match up, Aaron Nola is likely your guy, as he represents a bit more value as a pitcher who can match Buehler's ceiling in this spot. Nola should be the chalk today. In tournaments, paying a little more for Buehler at lower ownership in a similar match up feels like the way to go. The Dodgers are heavy -250 favorites.  

Kyle Gibson, MIN | DK: $8.9K, FD: $8.1K | RHP | vs. Kansas City

The first place Minnesota Twins are getting excellent production out of Gibson who finds himself 10-4 through 21 starts this season. One of the keys to his success has been the reduction in walks. In 2018, he had a very high 9.6% walk rate. This season, he’s been able to cut that down to 6.8% which has contributed to better run prevention. He’s coming off an absolutely brutal stretch of match ups dating back to June 19th against Boston, Tampa Bay (twice in row), Oakland (twice), Cleveland, and the Yankees – of all those teams only the Red Sox are not currently in the playoff picture. More recently, however, he’s getting a bit of a breather against some softer opponents including the White Sox who he cruised against his last time out and now the Royals today. Last time Gibson faced the Royals, on June 14th, he went eight innings allowing just two hits, zero runs, zero walks, and six strikeouts while picking up the win. If we look at his full body of work this season, despite that ugly stretch against tough competition, Gibson has a respectable 4.10 ERA (4.05 SIERA), 1.27 WHIP, 23.8% strikeouts and the aforementioned 6.8% walks. He’s also forcing 48.5% ground balls which further contributes to the solid run prevention. The Royals are a weak offense, particularly against right-handed pitching and even more so on the road where they have just a .296 wOBA, .157 ISO, and 25.4% strikeout rate. The Twins are heavy -210 favorites.

Aaron Sanchez, HOU | DK: $5.2K, FD: $6.6K | RHP | vs. Seattle

Speaking of brutal stretches, Sanchez’s last four starts were in the Bronx, in Boston, and then home against Cleveland and home against Tampa Bay. Evidently he pitched well enough during that span to create some value, as he was traded at the deadline to the Houston Astros and will make his team debut today against Seattle. Sanchez was impressive against Tampa Bay, allowing four earned runs on six hits with ten strikeouts in 5.2 innings of work. His overall season numbers are pretty brutal but there are some positive stats worth pointing out particularly during the last month. In July, and remember this was against some very difficult teams, he had a 5.26 ERA but a SIERA that was a full run lower at 4.22. He also had a massive .360 BABIP against him which would make it difficult for anyone to succeed. He still managed some upside with a 23.7% strikeout rate. By now, we all know the story with the Mariners this year. They got out to an unbelievably hot start which turned out to be too good to be true, as they’ve since skidded into last place in the AL West. Since May 1st, they have just a .316 wOBA. They do have some power upside with a .190 ISO but they also strikeout 25.4% of the time. Sanchez and the Astros are a massive favorite here at -200 and considering how inexpensive he is I don’t think it’s too much of a gamble to ask for at least five innings out of him where hopefully he can rack up an extra strikeout or two against this strikeout prone Mariners lineup.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Disclaimer: It's a Coors Slate today. While the pitchers on the mound are above average they are no match for that field in 90 degree weather. The game has an 11.5 O/U. You'll want exposure to the bats. I'm going to talk about some other possible stacks.

New York Mets vs Chris Archer, PIT (RHP)

The supposedly “playoff contending” New York Mets are now 8-2 in their last ten games and five games out of the final wild card spot in the National League. They are still three games below .500 so the playoffs are likely a stretch, but adding Marco Stroman to a rotation that already had deGrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler won’t make them an easy out. I love them today going up against a struggling Chris Archer for the second time in a row. Archer has allowed 25 home runs this season in only 101 IP. That's one home run allowed every four innings. In his 19 starts only three of them he managed to escape without giving up the long ball. His most recent outing, against these Mets, he went five innings allowing six runs (five earned) with four walks and only four strikeouts. There are four bats standing out to me here. Alonso (.894 OPS, .372 wOBA, .289 ISO vs RHP), Conforto (.928 OPS, .386 wOBA, .261 ISO vs RHP), McNeil (.898 OPS, .378 wOBA, .193 ISO), and J.D Davis (.882 OPS, .353 wOBA, .173 ISO vs RHP). You can certainly mix in Cano here as well who has some power upside with his .205 ISO and 40.2% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching.  

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Dylan Bundy, BAL (RHP)

Speaking of giving up the long ball, say hello to our good friend Dylan Bundy who consistently struggles with home runs. He’s actually given up less this season (23) than Archer (25) but both of them are in the top 10 for most home runs allowed (minimum 100 IP). You basically have to have exposure to bats against Bundy whenever he’s on the hill, as he can be prone to serious “blow up” games that will break the slate. A perfect example of this is just a few weeks ago, against the Rays, where he gave up seven runs on eight hits in just one inning. Toronto isn’t the most exciting offense to target but they certainly have upside, particularly in the younger talent. Biggio (.341 wOBA, .236 ISO), Guerrero (.359, .211 ISO), Gurriel (.351 wOBA, .231 ISO), and even Bichette (.447 wOBA, .286 ISO – very small sample) are all hitting right-handed pitching well. Smoak is always a staple in this lineup as well with his .362 wOBA, .267 ISO, and 49.3% hard hit rate against right-handed pitching. You can mix in guys like Grichuk and Galvis who have upside but lower floors.  

Los Angeles Angels vs. Adam Plutko, CLE (RHP)

What stands out to me about Plutko is the teams he’s had to face. In his nine starts this season, six of them have been against teams ranked 24th or worst against right-handed pitching including the Orioles (27th), Tigers (twice – 29th), and the Royals (three times – 24th). Despite a relatively easier path, Plutko still owns a 4.83 ERA, a 5.35 SIERA, and a .238 BABIP. With the SIERA a half run higher than the ERA and a well below average BABIP he’s due for a regression game. The Angels present a ton of challenges, but most notably they have the lowest strikeout rate in baseball against right-handed pitching at just 19%. Meanwhile, Plutko has a very low 14.5% strikeout rate this season. He’s going to have a difficult time navigating through this lineup today with virtually no chance at picking up easy outs. The Angels will be making a lot of contact, making them the perfect team to stack. Trout (obviously), Ohtani (.376 wOBA, .258 ISO), Calhoun (.324 wOBA, .233 ISO), and Upton (.365 wOBA, .221 ISO) all pose serious threats here. David Fletcher should be good for some points today as well with his incredibly low strikeout rate (7.5%) and his solid .341 wOBA.  

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Jean Segura, PHI | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.6K | SS | vs. Ross Detwiler, CWS

Segura has quietly strung together seven straight games with at least three fantasy points and four of those seven games have been double-digits. In the past two weeks he has a 40% hard contact rate and a ridiculous average exit velocity of 97.6 mph. He gets a strong match up today against Ross Detwiler who has allowed a .397 wOBA and .170 ISO against right-handed hitters in his last 20 starts. The Phillies have an implied total today of 5.5 runs.

Brandon Dixon, DET | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.3K | 1B | vs. Adrian Sampson, TEX

If you’ve got a strong stomach you could make a serious argument to stack the Tigers today. It’s a scary thought, considering they are one of the worst offenses in baseball, but it’s a great match up against Adrian Sampson and a fantastic park shift at Globe Life Park in the Texas heat. If you’re not planning to stack, Dixon makes for a nice one off piece with considerable upside at a reasonable salary. In his last 43 plate appearances he has a .409 wOBA and .200 ISO against right-handed pitching. In July, he had seven games with double-digit fantasy points including a massive 25 point game against the Angels just a few days ago.  

Aaron Judge, NYY | DK: $4K, FD: $4.1K | OF | vs. Brian Johnson, BOS

Aaron Judge is $4K on DraftKings. He’s actually cheaper than he is on FanDuel which barely ever happens. Do I need to provide analysis on why you should buy him today? Yes, he’s cold right now. In his last 27 plate appearances against right-handed pitching he has just a 1.85 FP/PA with only one home run and two RBI. During that same span, however, he has a 62.5% hard contact rate and a 102.3 mph average exit velocity. This appears, at least on paper, to be a string of bad luck and I’m surprised DraftKings has reacted so drastically with his pricing. His price has dropped $1000 in just a few days. There is too much value in this price right now and this is a great match up against Brian Johnson. One risk here is this game is the second of a double-header, so there’s always a chance some of the regulars get the night off. Hopefully we’ll get lineups before lock, but considering how long Red Sox/Yankees games typically take, I’m guessing chances are slim.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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