Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

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We’ve got a little split-slate Thursday on the table with six games falling onto the main card. This one gets a little tricky because, while we do have some very strong arms at the top of pricing, value pitching is a little dicey, especially on DraftKings. On top of that, both Coors Field and Globe Life Park are in play. If you want any hope of securing an ace-level pitcher along with higher floor/upside hitters, you’ll definitely need to locate some viable value bats to roll out. I’ll be sure to make it a point of mentioning a few extra cheap hitters today throughout this newsletter. One positive thing to note: weather should essentially be a non-issue, at least in terms of rain. Your best hitting weather will be found in Texas and Colorado which, of course, isn’t a shocker. So with all that said, let’s cut right to the chase and dig into this one!

Match-ups with implied totals & moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Lance Lynn (RHP) | DK: $10k, FD: $9.3k | vs. Seattle Mariners

It’s a tough debate between our top three pitchers today. Each guy has some pros and cons to weigh. deGrom has been pitching lights out, particularly since the start of July, but he’ll get a pretty tricky opponent to deal with in the Cubs who just hung nine runs on Noah Syndergaard in three innings last night. He’s also considerably more expensive than the guys right below him so the premiere “ace tax” is real. Ryu will be on the road, where he isn’t nearly as dangerous, but he has handled the D-backs pretty well in three starts against them this season (3-0, 20 IP, 1 ER, 12 H, 0.65 WHIP, .169 AVG allowed, 18.7 DKFP per game).

Both of those guys are squarely in play but I believe Lance Lynn will give you the most leverage in GPPs tonight. Let’s go ahead and mention the cons. First off, he hasn’t exactly been pitching well lately after allowing 11 earned runs in his last three starts (15.2 IP) with a 1.85 WHIP. Secondly, he’s pitching at home in Globe Life Park where offenses, both good and bad, can often find success, considering it is the #1 most hitter-friendly ballpark. A lower-tier offense like Seattle is even projected for a pretty lofty 4.8 implied runs today. So what’s the positive side of things here? Lynn has scorched Seattle in three match-ups this season, largely by way of strikeouts. In three games against them across 20 innings, Lynn has 30 strikeouts -- good for a 37% strikeout rate. He’s also only given up six runs (2.70 ERA) and 17 hits (.233 AVG) while posting an elite 2.85 xFIP. Seattle has struggled quite a bit versus righties lately as well. Over the last month, they have an 87 wRC+ (ranks 22nd) with a .220 AVG (27th) and a very high 28.1% strikeout rate. I’d definitely lean towards Lynn being the riskiest option of the top three guys tonight but his ceiling is on par with both deGrom and Ryu, yet he likely comes in at considerably lower ownership.

Alex Wood (LHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $7.5k | @ Miami Marlins

You can simply look at Wood’s game logs to tell that this is purely a match-up driven play. Wood has only had six starts this season with 29.2 innings worth of work so we don’t have much of a 2019 sample size to go off of with him. He has been better on the road (three starts, 17 IP) where he’s allowed only a .200 AVG/.296 wOBA and 0.94 WHIP. As I’m sure you’re aware, Marlins Park is a great park for pitchers so perhaps his positive road trends continue. The Marlins are an extremely righty-heavy team so it’s no surprise they hit lefties much better than righties. Even so, they’ve still been simply average with a 100 wRC+ versus LHPs in the last month alongside a league-high 28.9% kRate. I don’t love the Wood play here but given the shorter slate, I think we just have to hope the positive match-up plays out for him and, at the very least, he’s not egregiously mispriced.

Dereck Rodriguez (RHP) | DK: $4.6k, FD: $6.8k | vs. San Diego Padres

This is a frightening proposition but Rodriguez has shown the ability to easily return value on these low salaries, especially for what you’ll pay for him on DraftKings. He’s also fared well versus the Padres in his four starts against them, going back to last year. In 26 innings against San Diego, he has a 2.08 ERA (4.07 xFIP), 0.77 WHIP, 20.4% kRate, and an opponent .165 AVG/.212 wOBA. The Padres rank 28th with just a 70 wRC+ versus RHPs over the last month while batting .220 (29th) and striking out a league-high 28.8% of the time. Rodriguez could end up being the most popular cheap pitcher on both sites tonight (though Chris Paddack for $7k on FanDuel is likely a better bet), so keep that in mind if you’re an MME (mass multi-entry) player and perhaps throw out some Padres stacks. Otherwise, Rodriguez has ample opportunity to have a decent outing tonight. If he was able to hold Colorado to one run across five innings at Coors Field, surely he can handle a struggling Padres offense at home in Oracle Park.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Colorado Rockies vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), Pittsburgh Pirates

Normally Greg and I will go without highlighting any team playing at Coors Field or Globe Life Park in this section since it’s a little too obvious, but short slates call for adjustments, so here we are. Trevor Williams has a 7.50 ERA (6.74 xFIP) in the month of August (24 innings pitched) with just an 8.2% kRate. He’s surrendered five home runs in that time, which equals out to 1.90 HR/9, and those homers have been the result of just 27.3% Hard Contact. Normally, when in search of a team stack with multi-HR upside I’m looking to target a pitcher who has around a 2.00 HR/9 Rate and a Hard Contact Rate of 40% or higher. If Williams is giving up those homers on just 27.3% HC, then Coors Field may not be too kind to him this evening. The Rockies one through three hitters (Story, Blackmon, Arenado) are always stack-able if you’ve got the coin to spend up on ‘em but typically you have to max out with two of those guys. However, some cheap bats that could fall into play (assuming they make the lineup) include Sam Hilliard, Yonathan Daza, and Tony Wolters.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Robert Dugger (RHP), Miami Marlins

Dugger made his MLB debut on August 5th versus the Mets where he allowed six earned runs on five hits (two HRs) and issued four walks across five innings. Tonight will be his second start and I wouldn’t bet on him faring much better. Looking at his numbers at the Triple-A level this year, Dugger has a 2-4 record across 10 starts (53.1 IP) while posting a 7.59 ERA, 6.09 xFIP, 1.71 WHIP, 2.03 HR/9, and an opponent .327 AVG. If the guy isn’t getting it done in the minor leagues, I don’t know how he’s going to manage against a Cincinnati team that has been a top 10 offense versus RHPs over the last month. This Marlins bullpen has been atrocious as well (6.24 ERA, 5.70 xFIP, 2.70 HR/9 -- last 30 days) so feel free to fire up some Reds bats. Aristides Aquino and Eugenio Suarez are your stud plays. Toward the back of the order where the bats are cheaper, Tucker Barnhart and Jose Iglesias have both hit well over .300 against righty pitching lately with a .900+ OPS.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

1B Josh Bell (S) | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), COL

Bell has launched three homers in the last week so you have to like his chances at Coors now that his bat has a pulse again. Bell, as a switch hitter, does much better batting lefty versus righty where he has hit .299 this season with a .426 wOBA, .342 ISO, and is producing 47.9% Hard Contact. Gonzalez has faced 74 left-handed hitters this year and has walked an astounding 20.3% of them with just a 12.2% kRate while allowing 2.45 HR/9 on 48% Hard Contact. I usually don’t resort to going to Coors Field when ‘calling my shot’ but I’ll roll with Bell as my home run call of the night. 💣

2B Nick Solak ( R ) | DK: $3.7k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Felix Hernandez (RHP), SEA

Since it is a small slate, I only highlighted two team stacks but I’m going to throw out an extra one off hitter and, since value bats are crucial tonight, I’m going to opt to mention only cheap guys the rest of the way starting with Nick Solak. The Rangers’ rookie second baseman is off to a solid start in the big leagues while hitting .357 with a .431 wOBA over his first 28 MLB at bats. He has one professional homer to his name already and, prior to being called up, he showed some solid power in Triple-A this year with 27 HRs in 115 games between separate stints on the Rays and Rangers AAA affiliates. Felix Hernandez is making just his second start since mid-May but he's strolling into Texas with an 8.44 ERA on the road this season and may have some rust to still shake loose. After a six game road trip, the Rangers are returning home to their hitter-friendly Globe Life Park where you have to give a bump up to their hitters by default. Solak will likely be batting fifth in the order -- as he has for the last five games -- and stands out as a solid value bat on this slate.

C Francisco Mejia (S) | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Dereck Rodriguez (RHP), SF

I know I have Rodriguez highlighted above but it’s not without some trepidation. I still expect San Diego to get some production off of him. Mejia has been the most productive Padre hitter over the last month when a righty is on the mound. He leads the team with a 150 wRC+ in that time alongside a .315 AVG, .401 wOBA, .315 ISO with four home runs. For the prices, Mejia is definitely in play today given the power he has shown in LvR match-ups lately.

OF Lewis Brinson ( R ) | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), CIN

For the puntiest of punts, you can consider Brinson who sits just a hundo above minimum hitter salary on both sites. Outfield is a position you hardly ever want to spend down on (aside from blatant misprices) but taking Brinson and maybe one other cheap bat will allow you to jam in just about anyone else you’d like. This guy hasn’t strung it together in his pro career just yet, as he’s hitting below the Mendoza Line with just a .188 AVG across 180 MLB games. However, he showed some life across his time in Triple-A this season where he hit .270 with a .367 wOBA and 16 home runs in 81 games. He’s also hit lefties better this season. A .226 AVG against southpaws isn’t saying much but it’s certainly an improvement upon his .176 AVG versus righties. At $2.1k, anything beyond a hit and a walk, run, or RBI is just bonus points in my eyes.

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