By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

⚾ LineStar's 2020 MLB DFS Preview & Strategy Guide ⚾

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Well, we’ve got catastrophic hurricanes to deal with, an ongoing pandemic that won't go away, and nationwide social unrest that has sparked protests and boycotts which have impacted the professional sporting landscape in historic fashion. To say we are in unprecedented times may be putting it lightly. Everyday is starting to feel like we’re living in the middle of some strange, jumbled up Hollywood movie script that doesn’t know what film genre it wants to stick to. I mean, the existence of UFOs was confirmed by the US government a few months ago, right? When is the invasion coming? My money is on late October.

At the time of this writing, I am not seeing any news of potential boycott-related postponements across the MLB, so I am simply approaching this slate like any other one. However, I typed that exact same sentence yesterday before having to scrap that newsletter once postponements started rolling in. We’ll all just have to play this one by ear. Some potential weather concerns may come into play in several games as well today, so be sure to be mindful of that leading up to lock. There will be 12 games lined up for this evening’s main slate so let’s go ahead and get into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

As a reminder, the games I’m hitting on below are for the main slate only. You may want to run a weather check if you’re entering contests for some of the earlier games.

KC @ CWS: They moved this game up an hour to a 7:10 ET start in order to avoid some possible late-inning rain. This one should play fine as a result.

SF @ ARI: Roof at Chase Field is scheduled to be open. It’ll be roughly 105 degrees in Phoenix around first pitch.

CHC @ CIN: Scattered storms in the area all throughout this one. It’ll all come down to whether or not one goes over the ballpark or not. Definitely keep an eye on this one as we get closer to first pitch.

SD @ COL: If rain isn’t cleared out by first pitch, this one carries some legitimate PPD risk. I believe this game and the CHC @ CIN game are the main two weather concerns we’ll need to keep up with as the slate draws nearer.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Max Scherzer (RHP) | DK: $11k, FD: $10.6k | @ BOS

I could be wrong, but I feel like this is the first Mon-Fri main slate that Scherzer has pitched in this season. On the year, he is throwing for a 32.1% kRate, including a 15% Swinging Strike Rate. He has posted an uninspiring 4.31 ERA this year but his 3.37 xFIP is about a run lower and much closer to where Scherzer’s ERA *should* be. The match-up with Boston is pretty favorable, as they have just a .313 wOBA (ranks 20th) against RHPs this season, along with a below average 92 wRC+ and 24.3% kRate. It could very well be another 10+ strikeout day for Scherzer and as long as he avoids getting tagged up early, he’ll likely go 7+ innings in this one and throw around 110 pitches, which can’t be said about most arms today. The Nationals are strong -160 favorites and the Red Sox have a low 4.3 implied run total.

Triston McKenzie (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.7k | @ STL

McKenzie had a helluva MLB debut six days ago when struck out ten Detroit Tiger batters across six innings on just 80 pitches and allowed only one run on two hits. Now, no other team in the league strikes out more (against RHPs) than the Tigers, so I would temper expectations a bit today. But all of McKenzie’s minor league numbers do indicate that he will have strong K upside in most match-ups. The Cardinals are an above average offense against RHPs (.321 wOBA, 104 wRC+) and they don’t strike out all too much (22.5%). However, assuming McKenzie keeps a pitch count around 80, or perhaps pushes towards 90, he’s a highly intriguing guy to roll out tonight (particularly as an SP2 on DraftKings) and I could certainly see him putting up around seven or eight strikeouts. Cleveland is a slight favorite (-130) and St. Louis holds just a 3.9 implied run total.

Others to Consider:

Zac Gallen (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10k | vs. SF

Gallen has been one of the more consistent pitchers this season, as he has scored at least 14.8 DKFP/27 FDFP in all six starts. He’s striking out 29.4% of hitters (12.9% SwStr%) and has a 1.06 WHIP and is allowing just a .268 wOBA. The Giants can absolutely be a dangerous team at times but they enter tonight off of back-to-back shutout losses against the Dodgers.

Sixto Sanchez (RHP) | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. TB

If you want to get a little risky and go cheap at pitcher in order to afford a bunch of big bats, assuming he is named the starter, Sixto Sanchez could be a viable option. The rookie right-hander is a highly regarded prospect who has a fastball that can routinely touch the mid-to-high 90s and can reportedly reach triple digits on occasion. He hasn’t shown immense high strikeout upside in the minors (around 23% kRate) but did display strong plate control and limited home runs and walks to a strong degree. The Rays will be a very tough challenge but I believe there’s a reasonable opportunity for Sanchez to get five or six innings of work in and pay off these low salaries. He threw 66 pitches across 5.0 IP in his MLB debut against Washington on Aug. 22nd (scored 13.7 DKFP/24 FDFP), so he could be stretched out to around 75-80 pitches tonight, barring a blow up.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: If weather doesn’t get in the way at Coors Field, the Rockies and Padres are pretty obvious candidates to have some high ownership. Behind them, I could see the Phillies and the red hot White Sox being fairly high-owned stacks as well. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking guys on these teams as long as you’re aware of their chalky potential.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), SF

The D-Backs offense has been very uninspiring this season and they have struggled quite a bit against LHPs (.264 wOBA, 62 wRC+). However, Anderson’s 5.67 xFIP ranks as the worst mark on the slate and he’s not a threat to strikeout many guys (16.2% kRate). One good thing the Arizona offense has done against lefties this season is maintain a 20.3% kRate (6th lowest), so they should be able to produce plenty of contact against Anderson. The Giants bullpen is also a key reason I’m liking the Arizona stack potential. They have a league worst 5.67 xFIP and are giving up 1.76 HR/9 alongside a 1.48 WHIP and they’ve struck out just 18.4% of batters. As noted in the weather section, Arizona should be opening the roof tonight in Phoenix where game time temps will be 105°+ and could help some fly balls carry a bit further, potentially over the wall. This isn’t a slam dunk stack suggestion, but the upside is there.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Derek Holland (LHP), PIT

The Brewers have averaged just 3.73 runs/game this year (2nd lowest) but they’ll have a chance to bump that average up against Derek Holland tonight considering Milwaukee is significantly better when a lefty is on the mound. Versus righties, they have just a .271 wOBA and 66 wRC+ but when a lefty is on the mound they have produced a respectable .334 wOBA and 109 wRC+. Holland has also given up seven home runs already this season in just 23.1 IP (2.70 HR/9) and the Pirates have a bottom 10-ish level bullpen to roll out there after Holland is relieved of his duties.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Seattle Mariners vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), LAA

The Mariners have found their way into this section quite a bit and have become one of my favorite teams to stack simply because no one really plays them and yet they have some really strong upside. They’ve been on a roll lately and have averaged 7.3 runs/game over their last six while hitting .301 as a team with ten home runs and a 139 wRC+. Heaney is a pitcher that some of these Mariner bats can get ahold of and behind him is an Angels bullpen that has shown its fair share of struggles this season.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

As long as weather doesn’t get in the way of this game, how can we dismiss Machado an an elite option to spend up on tonight? He has been on an absolute tear and hit three homers across the Padres doubleheader yesterday. Over his last eight games (32 at-bats) Machado is hitting .531 with a .737 wOBA, .750 ISO, six home runs, four doubles, a triple, and 14 RBI. In that stretch, he’s earned an inhuman 380 wRC+. Now he gets a lefty in Coors Field? Even with the inflated salaries, I’m on board (please don’t go 0-for-4 tonight Manny).

1B Rhys Hoskins | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Robbie Erlin (LHP), ATL

Hoskins is another hitter who has managed to stay pretty hot lately after a relatively slow start to the season. Since August 9th (17 games, 76 plate appearances), Rhys has a massive .447 OBP and is hitting for a .415 wOBA and .224 ISO. The match-up with Robbie Erlin isn’t very worrisome and Hoskins has gotten on base in 24 of the 25 games that he has played this season, so he should make for a great mid-range option, especially in cash games.

1B Ryan O’Hearn | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Reynaldo Lopez (RHP), CWS

I usually try to avoid mentioning multiple guys who play the same position in this one-off section but if you want to pay way down at first base, O’Hearn is one of the cheapest clean-up hitters you’ll ever see. He doesn’t boast very strong numbers this season (.239 AVG, .286 wOBA, .119 ISO, 77 wRC+) but he does have a positive BvP narrative going for him against Reynaldo Lopez. In 15 PA against Lopez, O’Hearn has a .455 AVG with a pair of home runs and a .632 wOBA. Fifteen plate appearances isn’t a great sample size, but it isn’t bad. And obviously, the main reason I’m writing O’Hearn up is due to how cheap he is and where he’s hitting in the lineup. Even if he just gets a hit or two with a run or RBI, I think you’d be fairly content with that and he’d certainly help you pay up for a more premium pitcher like Scherzer or Gallen.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Kyle Freeland (LHP), COL

Low hanging fruit? Oh yeah. But give me Machado to go yard in Coors tonight and don’t judge me too hard for taking the easy route on this one.

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