Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🚨 2nd Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC North for the upcoming NFL DFS season! 🚨

🔊 8/28 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 7:27  Scherzer vs. Baltimore

• 9:28  Foltynewicz @ Toronto 

• 12:27  Cleveland Bats

• 14:18  Syndergaard Contrarian Play

• 16:51  Twins Bats

• 18:53  A’s @ Royals

• 21:03  Maeda @ Padres

• 24:31  Betting Lines & HR Calls

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A healthy 11-game midweek main slate falls onto the docket this evening and we’ll have the Gerrit Cole versus Max Scherzer debate at the top. Though, if you’re rolling one of those premiere aces, the choice feels pretty clear. Cole pitched without limitations in his return six days ago from a nagging hamstring and looked great as he amassed 12 Ks and allowed just two hits across seven shutout innings. We can pretty safely assume that Houston was simply being overly cautious by holding him out for those two weeks. In Scherzer’s case, he was sidelined for the better part of a month and a half, pitching just one game between July 6th and August 22nd. Considering his injury (back) is a bit more serious, unsurprisingly he was limited to just 71 pitches last week against Pittsburgh. We’ll likely get a clearer estimation on his pitch count closer to game time but I’d be surprised if Scherzer throws more than about 85 pitches. For the prices you’re paying for him, it’s obviously a major risk. We’ve got plenty more to get to besides debating expensive pitchers, so let’s get on it!

Match-ups with implied totals & moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook ⛅️

The PIT @ PHI and CHC @ NYM games both carry some late start/in-game delay potential due to some showers moving through the area this evening. A washout doesn’t seem likely in either game location but definitely monitor the forecasts once we get closer to first pitch since possible in-game delays always add some risk to the starting pitchers. BAL @ WAS isn’t completely out of the woods either in terms of seeing some showers. However, rain should only be in the area around the scheduled first pitch, so a bit of a late start would seem to be a more likely outcome than an in-game delay -- that is, if they’re even affected at all.

Pitchers to Consider

Noah Syndergaard (DK: $10.4k, FD: $9.5k) | RHP | vs. Chicago Cubs

I imagine many people skip the introduction and just skim through these newsletters but I’ve already said my piece on Cole versus Scherzer above. It’s not exactly a unique take -- Cole is obviously the safer play tonight. Just below those two in the salary department will be Thor, who has been pitching with nice consistency since the All-Star break. In his last eight games (54.1 IP), Syndergaard has posted a stout 1.82 ERA (3.40 xFIP) with a 25.8% kRate and 0.98 WHIP. He’s also allowed just one home run in that span -- good for a 0.20 HR/9 rate. The Cubbies as a team have been very middle-of-the-road versus RHPs lately, as they have accounted for a .320 wOBA and 95 wRC+ -- ranking 16th in both categories. I don’t believe you need to feel a ton of pressure to roll out Thor tonight but, among top pitchers, he’s the clear pivot off of Cole and obviously comes with considerable salary savings as well.

Anthony DeSclafani (DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.6k) | RHP | @ Miami Marlins

DeSclafani hasn’t eclipsed 20 DKFP/35 FDFP in a road start since May 1st so, even given the prime Miami match-up, there may not be a ton of upside to be had here. Still, DeSclafani has extreme normal splits which simply means that he is much better in RvR match-ups and Miami is a very righty heavy team. Against RHBs this season, DeSclafani has a strong 3.20 xFIP and 26.2% kRate while allowing a .234 AVG, .277 wOBA, and .147 ISO. In what might be the most repeated talking point all year, Miami is of course terrible versus right-handed pitching. Their 3.6 implied run total today is the lowest among all offenses that aren’t facing guys named Cole, Scherzer, or Syndergaard.

Aaron Civale (DK: $7k, FD: $8.2k) | RHP | @ Detroit Tigers

Civale’s FanDuel price tag is a bit restrictive but he’ll certainly be tough to get away from as a prime SP2 candidate on DraftKings for $7,000. Civale made his MLB debut against this same Tigers team back on June 22nd and did not disappoint after pitching six shutout innings, allowing two hits and earning the win/quality start. He hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his five starts and that includes difficult match-ups with the Yankees, Twins, and Mets. He’s posted a 1.82 ERA up to this point but has a pretty poor 4.44 xFIP behind that low ERA. The regression will surely get to him eventually but Detroit just doesn’t seem to be a likely candidate to be the team that tags Civale up first. Versus RHPs over the last month, the Tigers have a .303 wOBA (22nd), 87 wRC+ (23rd), and a huge 27.8% strikeout rate. The Indians are also healthy -180 favorites this evening so there’s a good chance Civale positions himself for those valuable win/quality start bonuses. Outside of the top guys, Civale should be one of the better floor options on the board with reasonable upside if he can somewhat replicate that debut performance he had against Detroit.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Disclaimer: Once again Boston and Colorado are two teams to consider stacking by default and don’t really need to be mentioned in this section.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Ariel Jurado (RHP), Texas Rangers

TEX @ LAA is the lone game beginning after 10 pm ET tonight so if you’re in search of some late night hammers, here’s your chance. Jurado enters tonight with a 10.54 ERA across his last three starts while allowing 22 runs (16 earned) in 13.2 innings. In that time he has allowed a .459 AVG, five home runs, and has thrown for just 7.1% strikeouts. In just eight plate appearances, Mike Trout already has three home runs off of Jurado so, as if you weren’t going to target him anyway, he’s the obvious starting point in an Angels stack. Elsewhere, Kole Calhoun, Brian Goodwin, and Luis Rengifo all have at least a .400 wOBA versus RHPs over the last month with a 157 wRC+ or higher.

Washington Nationals vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP), Baltimore Orioles

In what should have been one of the best spots of the night, the Nationals managed just two hits against Aaron Brooks through six innings yesterday and ultimately finished with zero runs and just four hits total. That’s just baseball being baseball. No amount of statistical analysis is ever going to accurately predict this game. However, there is still some merit into digging into the numbers and the numbers say to go right back to the Nationals tonight. Over his last five starts (24.0 IP), Wojciechowski has an absolutely terrible 7.48 xFIP with a 3.38 HR/9 Rate. He’s pitched beyond five innings in just one of those five games so there’s definitely not much downside in Washington getting extra innings versus the historically bad Orioles bullpen. I’d consider anyone toward the top half of this order to be firmly in play.

Minnesota Twins vs. Ross Detwiler (LHP), Chicago White Sox

Ross Detwiler got one over on the Rangers in his last start but a similar performance seems highly unlikely against a Twins team that has routinely crushed lefty pitching all year. Detwiler has been awful versus righties this season (.326 AVG, .422 wOBA, .291 ISO, 3.06 HR/9) so if you want to lean in that direction for Twins bats, I wouldn’t blame you. Nelson Cruz, Miguel Sano, and Mitch Garver are the lead options and all have major home run upside but I wouldn’t sleep on Jonathan Schoop or Jake Cave at the back of the order either. Plenty of these Twins bats have comparable salaries to hitters in Coors Field, particularly on DraftKings, so these guys could be a solid pivot away from Boston/Colorado bats as well. Cruz failed me last night so I’m sure he rocks one or two out the park tonight, but I’ll roll with Miguel Sano as my home run call for this evening! 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

1B Pete Alonso ( R ) | DK: $5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Pete Alonso seems to go overlooked nearly every day in recent memory, by myself included. Yet he has a ceiling just as high as anyone in the game. Versus RHPs over his last 20 games (63 PA), Alonso is batting .375 with a .943 wOBA+ISO and seven home runs. The match-up here for Alonso is no cakewalk but Hendricks’ ERA rises nearly three runs when he pitches on the road (4.76 ERA, 5.06 xFIP) and he’s also surrendering 2.05 HR/9 to RHBs outside of Wrigley Field. There are better plays on paper at this position today but you’ll almost certainly get Alonso at single digit ownership and likely more in the vicinity of 5% ownership. So consider him to be one of the higher leverage sluggers to pivot to on the slate.

2B Brock Holt ( L ) | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Peter Lambert (RHP), COL

By Coors Field standards, Brock Holt carries about the lowest salaries you’ll see among non-catcher offensive players. However, this is a guy who’s batting .330 on the season and is a top 10% fantasy scoring hitter versus RHPs, scoring 2.21 FP/PA. Peter Lambert has traditional splits as well so he is going to be worse against lefties (.320 AVG, .406 wOBA, .256 ISO). Holt isn’t an every day starter but considering he has hit 5 for his last 8, I’d be pretty surprised if he doesn’t show up once again in today’s Red Sox lineup. He’s also just a great value on FanDuel.

OF AJ Pollock ( R ) | DK: $4k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Luis Perdomo (RHP), SD

If Pollock is going to continuously get stuffed toward the top of this lethal Dodgers order, then his prices are just too cheap for the amount of upside he can provide. San Diego is rolling with a bullpen approach tonight so Perdomo probably pitches two, maybe three, innings at most while serving as the Padres’ long reliever. That said, Pollock likely sees mostly right-handed pitching tonight. If so, great, because his .876 wOBA+ISO versus RHP over his last 20 games is among the highest mark among all hitters in his price range. He’s getting on base over 40% of the time in the last month and, among cheap bats, he has some of the better home run upside to boot, despite a tough hitting environment at Petco Park (he hit a 385 foot dinger there last night so no sweat).

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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