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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/27 | Finding an Under the Radar Approach
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/27 | Finding an Under the Radar Approach
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Now that we’ve got that ugly Monday slate in our rear view, we move on to Tuesday’s massive 15-game main slate which is practically an embarrassment of riches by comparison. With all 30 teams on deck today including plenty of ace caliber pitching, solid value arms, Coors Field in play, and plenty of other offenses in strong spots, the amount of directions to take here are endless. September is just around the corner and many teams are prepared to pull out all the stops in order to secure their chances at making a playoff run. The American sporting landscape is rapidly shifting towards football but continue to keep your head in the game for MLB and let’s catch others slipping! There are virtually no significant weather issues in the forecast for today so we can slide right into the nitty gritty of this one!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
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Pitchers to Consider
Patrick Corbin (DK: $11.2k, FD: $10k) | LHP | vs. Baltimore Orioles
At the top tier of pricing, Justin Verlander and Luis Castillo are my favorite plays on the board but I assume they’ll be two of the more popular guys tonight. So, in pivoting fashion, here’s to hoping that people either forget or don’t realize just how good Patrick Corbin has been at home this year. In 12 home games, Corbin is 6-1 with an impeccable 1.76 ERA (3.21 xFIP), 0.96 WHIP, 30% kRate, 0.44 HR/9, and an opponent .199 AVG/.237 wOBA. Unfortunately, the match-up with Baltimore isn’t quite as juicy as you would think. Over the last month, the Orioles rank 8th versus lefties with a 118 wRC+ and 11th with a .349 wOBA. They’ll routinely sneak up and rally for seven or eight run games when people least expect it. Still, I’m not overly concerned that happens today because Corbin is just so untouchable at home. I’m thinking his name gets lost among the other studs and he goes overlooked on this slate. With the gas can that is Aaron Brooks checking in as his counterpart, Corbin and the Nationals are the heaviest favorites of the day (-305).
Michael Pineda (DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.2k) | RHP | @ Chicago White Sox
If you’re looking for a high ceiling play in the mid-range, well this probably ain’t it, Chief. But if you need a solid floor particularly on DraftKings as an SP2 candidate, Pineda could be your man. Across his last eight starts dating back to June 29th, Pineda has posted a very sound 2.98 ERA (4.05 xFIP), 1.12 WHIP, 23.2% kRate, and an opponent .240 AVG/.284 wOBA. He is 3-0 against the White Sox this season in three starts while averaging 21.9 DKFP per game. Chicago has just a 72 wRC+ versus RHPs over the last month (ranks 28th) with a huge 27.4% kRate. I don’t love the fact that he just faced Chicago in his last start a week ago, and he’ll have a tough pathway to earning a win with Lucas Giolito pitching on the other side, but all things considered I would expect a strong floor for Pineda today with potential for a 20 DKFP/35 FDFP outing.
Steven Brault (DK: $4.8k, FD: $6.2k) | LHP | @ Philadelphia Phillies
It does seem a bit absurd for Brault to check in at just $600/$700 more than Aaron Brooks on DraftKings/FanDuel. I get the sense that Adrian Houser will be perhaps the most popular cheap pitcher today but I’d be fine shifting some shares over toward Brault’s direction. Brault’s last 11 appearances going back to May 29th have all been as a traditional starter. Since then he has recorded a strong 2.62 ERA (4.63 xFIP -- not great, however) with a 1.27 WHIP, 21.5% kRate, 0.50 HR/9, and an opponent .236 AVG/.286 wOBA while allowing just 32.7% Hard Contact. The Phillies have been a pretty mediocre team versus lefties lately after posting a 105 wRC+ (ranks 20th) and .334 wOBA (18th) in the last month while striking out 26.1% of the time. Brault doesn’t often receive much run support from the putrid Pirates but they are showing a semblance of a pulse lately and I just don’t believe this guy should be priced among the worst arms of the slate.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Coors Field Disclaimer: With a healthy 13.5 run total out in Coors today, you can safely assume that both the Rockies and Red Sox will be two top teams to stack by default. Neither team will be mentioned in this section.
New York Yankees vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), Seattle Mariners
Here we go back to the Yankees well, as they get a chance to face off with a suspect southpaw. New York leads the league by a mile with a .343 AVG, .442 wOBA, .343 ISO, and 179 wRC+ versus LHPs in the last 30 days. In that time they are averaging a home run in every twelve at bats. Kikuchi has a 5.14 ERA (5.14 xFIP) at home this season while allowing 2.43 HR/9 and posting just a 19% kRate. DJ LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Gio Urshela have all been leading the onslaught against lefties for the Yankees lately. If Mike Ford gets a spot in the lineup, he’s one of my favorite cheap bats of the day considering he has six home runs off of lefties in his last 20 at bats!
Atlanta Braves vs. Toronto Blue Jays Bullpen
After scoring three runs or fewer in four of their last five games, I’m fully expecting the Braves to fly a bit under the radar here as they get a bullpen match-up with Toronto. Zack Godley is projected to be the primary reliever for the Blue Jays tonight. If I were a Braves hitter, I wouldn’t be sweating that all too much. In his 10 innings of pitching in relief since being picked up by Toronto, Godley has a 6.30 ERA (5.90 xFIP) with a 1.60 WHIP and just an 18.2% kRate. Obviously this isn’t a large sample size but he wasn’t exactly crushing it before being cut loose by the Diamondbacks. For the remainder of this game, the Braves will get to see a struggling Blue Jays bullpen whose 5.42 xFIP is the fourth highest in baseball over the last month and they’re striking out batters at only a 20.2% clip (fourth lowest) with a lofty 1.87 HR/9 allowed. Your best bets are predictably going to be with Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson. A now healthy and discounted Dansby Swanson could be worth a look as well.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Adrian Houser (RHP), Milwaukee Brewers
Here’s to going against the grain a bit, as Adrian Houser sets up to be pretty popular this evening. Houser is definitely pitching well lately and just held St. Louis to one run across six innings in his last start. However, it’s not uncommon for pitchers to get rocked the second time around when facing a team in back-to-back starts. A large part of Houser’s recent success is stemming from his 57.9% Ground Ball Rate over the last 30 days. However, in that time, the Cardinals offense has the second lowest Ground Ball Rate in the league versus right-handed pitching (37.7%). Miller Park is a solid hitter’s environment and with the way the Cards are playing lately, don’t be surprised at all if they continue to string together another great offensive game. Dexter Fowler, Marcell Ozuna, and Tommy Edman would be my preferred targets. Kolten Wong (toe) should be on the radar as well if he returns to the lineup.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
OF Nelson Cruz ( R ) | DK: $5k, FD: $4k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS
Here’s a great opportunity to buy low on Cruz, or at least catch him at depressed ownership. After a brief stint on the IL, Cruz had that big day in his second game back a week ago, which also happened to be against the White Sox, as he went 4-for-5 with a home run and three doubles. Since then, he is 3-for-17 in his previous four games and now he’ll draw a tough match-up with righty Lucas Giolito. However, don’t tell Cruz that it’s a tough match-up -- he has three homers off of Giolito in just nine plate appearances. In his last 20 games versus RHPs, he’s batting .423 with seven bombs, 22 RBI, and a 1.092 wOBA+ISO. He has also wreaked havoc on the White Sox pitching staff this season. Across ten games against them, he’s batting .500 with an obscene 1.416 wOBA+ISO alongside eight home runs, five doubles, and 20 RBI. Seven of those eight homers came at Guaranteed Rate Field, which is where tonight’s game will take place. Despite Giolito pitching out of his mind lately, I’m going to side with Nelson Cruz on this one and make him my home run call of the evening. 💣
Cruz has had the Chicago's number this year
OF Victor Robles ( R ) | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), BAL
Robles has been slapping the ball all over the park and stealing a slew of bags along the way. Over his last 14 games, Robles is 19-for-55 (.345) with a couple home runs, six doubles, and six stolen bases. Robles also already stolen a pair of bases with Aaron Brooks on the mound a little over a month ago. Washington slotted the speedy outfielder at the two spot in their lineup on Sunday so we could see Robles near the top of the order once again. At this point you’re probably aware of how bad Aaron Brooks has been. You definitely want some exposure to this Nats offense and, if you’re not stacking these guys up, Robles feels like a solid option as an affordable one off Washington bat to roll out.
C Jacob Stallings ( R ) | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), PHI
I had Stallings mentioned as a cheap one off bat yesterday, and sure he only managed a walk and a run, but against another low-quality lefty I’ll be content with going back to him here. For the prices, his splits are just too strong to ignore. He has a .318 AVG versus LHPs over his last 20 games with a .803 wOBA+ISO and a couple home runs. Smyly has a 5.38 xFIP versus RHBs along with a 12.7% Walk Rate, 1.61 WHIP, 2.05 HR/9, and allows a .375 wOBA/.241 ISO. FanDuel players probably won’t have much interest here since a catcher isn’t required in lineups, but on DraftKings it’s one of the better positions to spend down for. Typically anything more than a hit or two with a run or RBI will work just fine for a catcher, especially for one at these prices.
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