Top MLB DFS Plays 8/26 | More Midweek Madness on the Horizon

August 26, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple| Google| Spotify| iHeartRADIO| Stitcher

Well, Tuesday brought us another “wash out” in Atlanta as well as the 2020 season’s first no-no which came from the right arm of Lucas ‘G-Elite-O’. Just another day in the world of baseball. I’m not sure if the super volatile and unpredictable postponement ‘switch’ will be isolated only to Atlanta but it’s probably best to start consolidating your exposure to ‘at-risk’ games into a certain subset of lineups (or just fading altogether). In any other circumstances, the Braves and Yankees probably play that game yesterday considering the rain had cleared out by game time and would’ve played dry the rest of the way through. But, of course, coronavirus concerns throw in other unique sets of circumstances… I guess (I still think they could have easily played that particular game). But let’s move onto today!

Note: The DraftKings main slate begins at 7:10 ET and actually consists of nine games instead of the advertised “10 games.” The second game of the doubleheader between ATL/NYY is technically the 10th game but do not play anyone in there as they will not accrue fantasy points!

Note #2: The FanDuel main slate begins at 6:37 ET and will include two additional games (BOS @ TOR, BAL @ TB). For the sake of this newsletter, I will only be focusing on the nine mutually shared games.

I received a couple DMs on Twitter from guys who had some big hits yesterday and also saw some folks in the chat who had some nice scores as well, so let’s get after it again!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

BOS @ TOR: This is for FanDuel players (or if you’re playing the early ‘turbo’ slate). Remember, for the 2020 season, Toronto’s ‘home field’ is temporarily located in Buffalo, NY at Sahlen Field. Beware of this game as there is going to be heavy rain in the area which could easily lead to this one being a washout (like, an actual washout that is worth postponing… not what Atlanta would consider a ‘washout’). If you have stake in this game, keep an eye on what the weather is looking like prior to first pitch.

KC @ STL: Low rain chances, mostly at the very start of this game, but should play fine. Winds blowing out to left near 10 mph.

COL @ ARI: The roof is scheduled to be open again tonight. Temps in Phoenix will be around 105 degrees at first pitch.

CHC @ DET: Wind blowing in from right at 10 mph.

MIN @ CLE: More light rain chances but fairly unlikely. Wind blowing out to right at 10 mph.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Sonny Gray (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.2k | @ MIL

I’m still not opposed to taking high strikeout pitchers against this Brewers team. Against RHPs they are striking out 27.6% of the time and have a .273 wOBA and 67 wRC+. -- figures that rank inside the bottom three in the league. Among their routine starters, only Justin Smoak (104 wRC+) can statistically be considered an above average run producer against RHPs this season. This season, Sonny Gray boasts a strong 34.9% kRate, 2.21 ERA, 2.72 xFIP, and .244 wOBA. His 11.5% Swinging Strike Rate isn’t in ‘elite’ territory and is one of the reasons I do think his overall strikeout rate will begin to decline a bit eventually. But these Brewers seem to swing at everything, so I’ll be fine with grabbing some exposure to Gray tonight.

Dinelson Lamet (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.3k | vs. SEA

Lamet is going to carry heavy ownership tonight, no doubt, but he has recorded at least seven strikeouts in 5-of-6 starts this season, with his lone ‘down game’ coming against the Dodgers. On the season, he has a 34.1% kRate next to a strong 14.7% Swinging Strike Rate. His allowed run production is probably due for some regression at some point (1.89 ERA versus a 3.74 xFIP) but the strikeout potential is the obvious draw towards him. Seattle beat up on a chalk pitcher a bit yesterday, when they faced off with Chris Paddack, and have actually played their way into being somewhat of a middle-of-the-road offense against RHPs (.308 wOBA, .153 ISO, 97 wRC+, 23.2% kRate). However, in 14 games (out of 31) they have only managed to score two runs or less so I’ll take my chances with Lamet tonight and if he bombs… well, that’s just how baseball goes sometimes. The Padres are currently the third heaviest favorite on the night with -230 odds to win.

Others to Consider:

Jacob deGrom (RHP) | DK: $11k, FD: $10.7k | vs. MIA

Clayton Kershaw (LHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ SF

Pretty obvious, but these two aces can clearly be used tonight if you’re comfortable with the value bats they’ll require you to roster.

Elieser Hernandez (RHP) | DK: $6.6k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYM

The Mets have been a very tough offense for righties to face but they did just get shutout yesterday and Hernandez is striking out 32.9% of hitters this season. He’ll carry some risk but if you want to get away from the chalkier options, Hernandez could come through with a very strong fantasy score and carry <10% ownership.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s another tough call to project the high owned stacks at this point in the day so maybe no single team pulls too far ahead on the chalk-o-meter. However, I could definitely see a lot of people getting on board with the Cubs against Michael Fulmer. Also, due to the affordable prices once again along with a decent match-up, certain hitters in the Cardinals lineup may be a bit chalky again today. As usual, there’s nothing wrong with rolling out batters on these teams. Just be aware of high potential ownership!

Oakland Athletics vs. Kolby Allard (LHP), TEX

The A’s are going to be one of the most volatile stacks all year but if you hit ‘em on the right day then you’re well on your way to making some nice moola. Maybe Oakland used up all of their “positive volatility” in yesterday’s 10-run offensive performance and will need a few days to charge back up for another 10+ run outing. Maybe so. But on the season against LHPs they have a .210 ISO (ranks 9th) and Allard has struggled to a 7.82 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, and allows a ton of fly balls (51.2%). He’s only given up one home run in his 12.2 IP this season but more could be on the way at the hands of these Oakland bats. (Note: Some reports say Allard may not start today. If that’s the case, I’m still down with Oakland against whatever other pitcher Texas decides to throw out there).

Detroit Tigers vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

Lester had avoided a major blowup through his first four starts this season but all the underlying data like xFIP and BABIP indicated that regression was due. Regression certainly showed up when he faced off against the White Sox in his last start with eight earned runs on nine hits (four HRs) and survived just 3.2 innings. Now, the White Sox have been one of the hottest offenses in baseball but the Tigers are sneaky good against lefties. Their 140 wRC+ versus LHPs ranks 2nd in the league (behind CWS) and they’re producing a .378 wOBA and .224 ISO. Lester could easily have another rough outing tonight and these Tiger bats are generally very affordable.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Francisco Giants vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD

The Giants are the one team that got to Kershaw so far this year in his four starts and it’s for sure a possibility that they could do it again. On August 8th the Giants knocked Kershaw around across 4.1 innings by smacking seven hits against him, which included three homers. San Francisco ranks 6th in the MLB with a 134 wRC+ against LHPs and there are several bats in this order that have shown really strong power this season. Their .231 team ISO against LHPs ranks 5th in baseball. Much like Seattle yesterday, you don’t necessarily need to run full five man stacks here to be super contrarian. Even rolling with just two or three San Fran bats could pay off dividends if Kershaw doesn’t bring his best stuff tonight.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), SEA

Machado’s last six games: 24 at-bats, 13 hits (.542 AVG), .702 wOBA, .625 ISO, three HRs, four doubles, one triple. Is Taijuan Walker or the soft Mariners bullpen gonna be the guys who put a halt to the hot streak? Eh, I suppose it is possible, but I’ll take my chances with Manny considering how dominant he has been over the last week. I know many people usually only target Machado when he gets a lefty starting on the mound, but he’s actually been slightly more efficient against righties this season.

1B/OF Dominic Smith | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Eliesier Hernandez (RHP), MIA

The Mets’ first game since the 19th was played yesterday. It wasn’t on the main slate and the people who did pay attention to that game saw the Mets get shut out, so maybe these guys will be fairly “out of sight, out of mind” in the eyes of MLB DFS players tonight. Smith was one of the hottest hitters in baseball prior to a couple positive COVID-19 tests required them to take that brief hiatus. Going back across Smith’s last ten games (36 at-bats), he is hitting .444 with a .600 wOBA, .528 ISO, 292 wRC+, and had four home runs, seven doubles, and 13 RBI. I’m anxious to see if he can get rolling again tonight against Hernandez and a highly suspect Marlins bullpen. Smith is also back hitting clean-up tonight, which is another plus.

OF Raimel Tapia | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), ARI

Tapia has hit .330 over the last month and the Rockies have slotted him in at lead-off for the last six games. If they decide to roll with him again atop the order, he’s a very appealing value option against Robbie Ray tonight. Tapia is a lefty hitter so Colorado may not want him leading off due to the lefty-on-lefty match-up, but across his career he’s hit LHPs about as well as RHPs. In a very small sample size, Tapia is also 6-for-14 (.429) versus LHPs on the season. Ray can throw some strikeouts but other than that he has gotten rocked quite a bit this season. Tapia has just a 16.5% kRate in 2020.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Manny Machado | DK: $5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), SEA

I’ll be doubling down on Machado this evening as my home run call in hopes that he stays on the heater he is currently on.

Let us know if you enjoyed this issue of the Daily Ledger with a 👍 or 👎

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.