Author: @ZeroInDenver on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8/26 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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THAT'S RIGHT! Your dude is covering for Ryan today and tomorrow. As always, I'll start with the disclaimer that I don't look at stats. I'll be playing some single entry, 3-max, and 150-max contests, so I'm going to focus primarily on spots that hover in the middle of the ownership spectrum that look to also provide some leverage.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There are no major weather concerns at the time of this writing, but as we get closer to lock, take a peek at Philly and Cleveland to make sure they're both still in good shape.

Right now, NO WEATHER BADGES NEEDED! 🔥🔥🔥

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), LAD | DK: $10.2k, FD: $10.7k | vs MIN

Surprised? Sale has the best matchup according to the LineStar app today. I have him projected at 10% ownership. I have Scherzer, Darvish, and Wood projected as the top 3 owned pitchers tonight. You can probably get some decent leverage on him by pivoting from one of the other three. Want to really be unique? Consider dumpster diving on bats and pairing Sale with Scherzer.

Alex Wood (LHP), SF | DK: $8.7k, FD: $8.2k | @ NYM

Wood will be one of the most popular pitchers of the night. If I'm playing 1-3 lineups, he's probably in each one. On DK, I think you can pair with Sale or Scherzer and make a solid viable lineup.

Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX | DK: $6k, FD: $6.6k | @ CLE

I get it. Looking at his numbers, there's not a lot to like about Lyles. However, I've got him ranked with the best probability (out of cheap pitchers tonight) to return value and gain leverage. Would I run him in a single entry? Probably not, but in 150 entries, I'll probably have him in about 12 of those lineups.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Let's get real for a moment and have a serious talk about stacks and how to pick them. From my standpoint, there are different methods to approach this:

• Pick stacks based on matchup or some kind of stat

• Pick stacks based on projection

• Pick stacks based on Vegas

• Pick stacks based on projected ownership

• Allow stacks to happen naturally. In other words, I'm not intentionally trying to stack Boston, but liking Renfroe, Devers, and JD and adding them to your lineups.

💎 Let me drop you a gem.

I hope you're sitting down.

All those methods work and none of those methods work. How many times have you tried to second guess a winning lineup in your contest? Why would anyone stack Arizona? They had the worst matchup/stats/implied runs on the slate.

This must be...

My point is, I'm going to tell you who I like as I build rankings for lineups based on summed projections, probabilities to meet a target score, and ownership. Sometimes the time machine works. Sometimes it's trash...

Here's who I got:

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

Edman, Goldschmidt, Molina, Arenado, DeJong if you're running 5-mans.

Cleveland Indians vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

"Wait a minute - Zero, you told me you like Lyles!?"

Welcome to the world of GPP baby. I don't have to pick a side or take a stand, I can play both.

Straw, Rosario, Ramires, Reyes, and Mercado are my faves

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Oakland Athletics vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

Yankees are on their best winning streak since the 80s, but I'm going to take the chance their win streak comes to a miserable end tonight. Taillon is certainly worse on the road. It's worth a shot.

Canha, Marte, Olson, Lowrie, Harrison are my favorites

One-Off Bats ☝️

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $6k, FD: $4k | vs. Gant (RHP), MIN

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Gallen (RHP), ARI

1B Paul Goldschmidt | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Keller (RHP), PIT

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Hernandez (RHP), MIA

OF Ketel Marte | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Efflin (RHP), PHI

2B/SS Jazz Chisholm | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Corbin (LHP), WAS

C J.T. Realmuto | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Gallen (RHP), ARI

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Oscar Mercado | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Lyles (RHP), TEX

OF Adolis Garcia | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Hentges (LHP), CLE

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Corbin (LHP), WAS

2B/SS Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Sale (LHP), BOS

2B/3B Yonny Hernandez | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Hentges (LHP), CLE

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Hernandez (RHP), MIA

1B Nathaniel Lowe | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Hentges (LHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF THE GREAT HUNTER RENFROE | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Gant (RHP), MIN

He'd still be a value at a salary of $2K more, and he should be unanimously selected as the American League MVP this year. Don't believe me?

• wOBA + ISO over .600 over his last 20 games ✅

• Hard Contact > 40% ✅

• Average Exit Velocity > 93 MPH ✅

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@ZeroInDenver), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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