Top MLB DFS Plays 8/25 | Swinging for a Tuesday Takedown

August 25, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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We’ve got a well-rounded 10-gamer on the docket for this evening. There are plenty of strong pitching options with several teams rolling over to the top of their rotations. Simultaneously, there are currently seven teams with an implied total of five runs or greater. I won’t waste too much time on the intro today. This should be a fun slate so let’s dive right in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

COL @ ARI: Per the Diamondbacks ballpark information site, Chase Field will have the roof open tonight. If so, temps will be around 108 degrees at first pitch.

NYY @ ATL: This is the usual “potential for pop-up storms in Atlanta” warning. Once we’re closer to first pitch, check on the radar and/or what the actual meteorologists are saying on Twitter about the outlook for this game. For now, I’ll assume this game plays without any delay but it isn't without risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lucas Giolito (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k | vs. PIT

It is a bit difficult to look past Giolito’s monstrous 13 K performance (7 IP, 110 pitches) in his last game against Detroit, which netted him 43.4 DKFP/70 FDFP. A repeat performance seems very unlikely, but he’ll still see one of the most favorable match-ups today when he takes the mound against the Pittsburgh Pirates. Against RHPs this season, the Pirates have just a .257 wOBA, 59 wRC+, and are striking out 24.7% of the time. Over their last few games, they are playing better than those season-long numbers would indicate, but it does seem likely that they’ll struggle against a pitcher like Giolito. The White Sox right-hander holds a strong 31.7% kRate this season alongside a 14.4% Swinging Strike Rate, 3.40 xFIP, .288 opponent wOBA and he’s allowing a low 34.2% Hard Contact Rate with an 86.6 mph average exit velocity. When it’s all said and done, the White Sox enter this evening as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-240) and Pittsburgh has just a 3.6 implied run total.

Alex Young (LHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $6k | vs. COL

Preface: Young should be a GPP-only punt play.

If you want to target a riskier but low-owned arm that would allow you to afford just about any hitters your heart desires, Young is an intriguing value target tonight. In 152 plate appearances against LHPs outside of Coors Field this season, the Rockies have just a .231 wOBA (ranks 28th), a .064 ISO (29th), and a 41 wRC+ (28th) while striking out 25.7% of the time. Young has made most of his appearances out of the bullpen this season but due to the injuries to the D-backs starting rotation, he’ll step in for his third start of the year. He was a somewhat serviceable starter in 2019 and this year he has a pretty decent 3.55 xFIP and 25% kRate while allowing just 30.2% Hard Contact. While his last start against Oakland wasn’t all that impressive, he was stretched out to 86 pitches (23 more than his first start vs. SD). If he can see a similar pitch count (or perhaps a few more), he could certainly flirt with 20 DKFP/35 FDFP if the Rockies continue their struggles with southpaw pitchers away from Coors Field.

Others to Consider:

Shane Bieber (RHP) | DK: $10.8k, FD: $12k | vs. MIN

Certainly not the easiest match-up, but who is willing to bet against Bieber this year? The guy is striking out an absurd 43.3% of hitters (18.7% SwStr%) with a 1.11 ERA, 1.52 xFIP, and .211 wOBA. Bieber has just been an absolute monster.

Luis Castillo (RHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $9.1k | @ MIL

Castillo hasn’t had an exceptional start to the season but, with the exception of perhaps Bieber, he has as much strikeout potential as any pitcher on this slate. The Brewers have struck out 27.3% of the time versus RHPs this season with just a .273 wOBA and 67 wRC+. While they do have a few dangerous bats, like Yelich, Hiura, and Smoak, as a team they have been very below average.

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $8.9k | vs. SEA

He’s probably more of an SP2 candidate on DraftKings but, aside from a road game against the Dodgers, Paddack has posted at least 14.6 DKFP/26 FDFP in all of his other five starts. However, his DFS ceiling has been limited to 22.5 DKFP/40 FDFP. His best starts in 2020 are almost certainly ahead of him and he could flash his upside tonight at home against a volatile, but overall below average, Mariners offense.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: This is one of those days where stack ownership seems like it will be pretty evenly spread out across the slate so I’m not really going to mention what teams I believe may end up being chalky.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), KC

I certainly wouldn’t be shocked if the Cards do end up being a chalky stack, especially after coming in off of a strong night offensively yesterday. But I’m still willing to load up on some of these guys as they face off with the ghost of Matt Harvey. He only has one start under his belt this year, but going back to the start of 2019, Harvey has pitched 62.2 MLB innings. In that time he has amassed a 7.18 ERA, 5.53 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and is allowing a .277 AVG, .373 wOBA, and 2.20 HR/9 while striking out just 15.3% of hitters. Once Harvey is off the mound, the Royals will look to their bullpen which has a 4.65 xFIP this season (11th worst) alongside a 1.42 WHIP and 1.44 HR/9 Rate. Given the relative affordability of the Cardinal bats on both sites, I do imagine they’ll be a top stack option if people are also rolling with a stud pitcher… so they may be a smart fade in GPPs, or worth lowering overall exposure to. But I still think you can get away with stacking these guys if you just differentiate elsewhere.

Chicago White Sox vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

Over the last two weeks, the White Sox have arguably been one of the best overall offenses in baseball, if not THE best. Going back to August 11th, as a team, the White Sox have posted a massive 148 wRC+ (2nd in that time) next to a .383 wOBA (2nd), .310 ISO(1st), 53.7% Hard Contact (2nd), and have smacked an absurd 34 home runs out the park (most in that stretch). If you focus on just what they have done against lefty pitchers in that two week span (158 plate appearances), their numbers become even more scary: 200 wRC+, .460 wOBA, .414 ISO, 54.4% Hard Contact, 16 HRs. If those trends continue, Steven Brault may be in for a rough time on the mound tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Seattle Mariners vs. Chris Paddack (RHP), SD

While I am on board with Paddack tonight, Seattle is one of those super boom/bust offenses that can occasionally come through as a low-owned stack that helps take down GPPs. They’re coming off of a three game series against Texas where they scored a combined 21 runs (7.0 runs/gm). In that series, as a team, they had a .357 wOBA with five home runs. One thing Paddack has struggled with this season is giving up the long ball. In 31.2 IP this season he has already allowed eight home runs (2.27 HR/9). Even if you just stacked 2-4 Mariners, it’d be a very contrarian lineup build. If they happen to go off, they’d all likely be well under 10% owned.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

1B/OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

For a premium one-off bat, you can’t find many guys showing more power than Bellinger has lately. It took him a couple weeks or so to get going, but he’s been a force at the plate. Over his last ten games (35 at-bats), Bellinger is hitting .314 with a .508 wOBA, .543 ISO, 228 wRC+, six home runs, and nine RBI. He enters tonight with a dinger in four of his last five games. Cueto has actually been avoiding a major blow-up and has only allowed three home runs this season (zero to LHBs) but in Bellinger’s recent ten game heater, 54.5% of his fly balls have went for home runs. So all he needs to do is just get under one and Cueto has allowed a decently high 40% Fly Ball Rate to LHBs. The Giants bullpen has also been arguably the worst relief unit in the league (5.76 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, 1.87 HR/9) so Cody should likely get two or three shots at those guys as well.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Ian Anderson (RHP), ATL

After a five day hiatus due to a series with the Mets (coronavirus issues) being postponed, the Yankees are looking to step back into the batter’s box and Voit will be looking to stay hot. Voit had hit five home runs in his previous four games leading up to the brief break. He has simply been incredible the entire year, hitting .311 with a .457 wOBA, .419 ISO, and 196 wRC+. Now he’ll get a crack at a rookie pitcher in Ian Anderson who will be making his MLB debut. Anderson posted some strong numbers in the lower-A minor leagues but in his brief stint in Triple-A (five starts, 24.2 IP), he did struggle to a 6.57 ERA, 5.93 xFIP, and 1.82 HR/9. I’m all about some Voit tonight (weather pending). Also, look for Aaron Judge to potentially be activated ahead of this game.

OF David Peralta | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

Peralta was mentioned in this section yesterday and ended up having an uneventful 0-for-4 night at the plate. He is still worth a shot at these low salaries considering he should be batting clean-up once again for a D-Backs team that has one of the higher implied run totals of the night. At home against RHPs this season, Peralta is hitting .324 with a .411 wOBA, .243 ISO, and 159 wRC+. In 35 plate appearances against German Marquez, he is also batting .438 with a .530 wOBA, .344 ISO, two home runs, and eight RBI.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

I’m going to pick some low hanging fruit with my home run call today and go with Bellinger in hopes that his bat stays hot against Cueto and that awful San Fran bullpen. Make it five homers in six games tonight, Cody! Or hit a couple out if you’re feelin’ like it.

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