Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Happy Hump Day! We’ve got a solid 10-game main slate heading our way this evening. This one will have no shortage of appealing pitching options to choose from as there are currently at least six expected starters who have a sub-3.00 ERA on the year and ten guys who have a >26% kRate. With all of the arm talent out there today, I suspect we’ll see a majority of ownership land on the handful of offenses facing subpar pitchers. Currently, only four teams (BOS, LAA, CLE, MIN) have an implied total of 4.8 runs or higher. Of course, other offenses besides those four will come through with better-than-expected results. Landing on those sneakier bats will be as crucial as ever today! Things should get interesting in this one so let’s see what we can cook up!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There are no major weather concerns at the time of this writing, but as we saw yesterday in the COL @ CHC game, forecasts can change on a dime much closer to the first pitch and bring a postponement scenario into play. It was yet another reminder of how important it is to stay on top of things once we get closer to lock!

Best hitting environments: LAA @ BAL, TB @ PHI, CWS @ TOR, MIN @ BOS, TEX @ CLE, CIN @ MIL

Best pitching environments: WAS @ MIA, LAD @ SD

ARI @ PIT (7:05 ET, O/U TBD): Lower-end risk of some pop-up storms in the area. It all just comes down to whether or not one makes its way over the ballpark.

TEX @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): More scattered pop-up risk. The potential for an in-game delay here is a bit higher than in PIT, so I’d likely avoid starting pitchers in this game for now. Bats should be safe. Check the outlook closer to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD | DK: $9.7k, FD: $11.3k | @ SD

We saw several pitchers in quality spots get rocked yesterday which served as a reminder that there are never any truly ‘safe’ plays in baseball. But, Walker Buehler has shown one of the more consistent floors in the MLB this season at the pitcher position. He leads all pitchers today with an average of 104 pitches/gm over his last five starts and he is rocking a 1.32 ERA, 29.1% kRate, and 1.00 WHIP in that span. The Padres still have one a strong offensive lineup but they’ve certainly struggled lately. Their .212 AVG vs. RHPs in the last two weeks is the third lowest batting average in the MLB in that span and they’ve accounted for an 87 wRC+ in that time as well (ranks 21st). The Padres do limit strikeouts to opposing pitchers but Buehler has also thrown at least eight strikeouts in seven of his last eight games and he struck out nine Padres when he faced them last. I believe you have to like Buehler this evening as a potential ‘late night hammer’ since he'll be pitching in the only game on the slate that begins after 8:10 ET.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.7k, FD: $11.6k | @ BAL

I honestly have no idea why DraftKings refuses to price Ohtani up as a pitcher. At this point, his salaries as a hitter are only about $2k less than when he takes the mound. On FanDuel, it is obviously a different story as he checks in as the most expensive hurler on the slate. That will make him perhaps more of a GPP play there, but at $8,700 on DK versus an Orioles team on the verge of losing 20 games in a row? He seems like a no-brainer play and should be well over 50% owned tonight. Across Ohtani’s last six starts on the mound, he has boasted an incredible 1.58 ERA (3.64 xFIP) with a 25% kRate, 0.75 WHIP, .183 AVG, .218 wOBA. While his strikeouts are down a bit, so is his walk rate which is what plagued him at times earlier in the season. He has walked only 2.7% of batters over those previous six starts. While strikeouts are king when it comes to pitching DFS scoring, I think Ohtani losing out on a strikeout or two per game is a fair trade off if it means he’s not getting himself in riskier situations by giving hitters free bases. In Baltimore’s current 19-game losing streak, which goes back to August 1st, they’re actually not playing awful on offense by any means and they rank 13th vs. RHPs in that span with a 104 wRC+ and 7th with a .263 AVG. But as long as the negative regression monster doesn’t show up today for Ohtani, he *should* continue to cruise. The Angels currently check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate with -210 moneyline odds.

Edward Cabrera (RHP), MIA | DK: $5k, FD: $7.3k | vs. WAS

There are so many other proven veteran pitchers on tonight’s slate so Cabrera is a 1000% ‘risk it for the biscuit’ wildcard kinda play -- preferably as an SP2 option on DK. Only go to Cabrera if you’re more of an MME player who rolls out 20+ lineups a night. But it could be worth garnering some exposure to Cabrera as he makes his MLB debut in Miami and should be <10% owned. The strikeout potential is far and away from the main appeal with him. In six starts and 29.1 IP in Triple-A this season, Cabrera has accounted for a blistering 37.2% kRate while also posting a decent 3.68 ERA, 4.00 xFIP, and .202 opp AVG. Now, he has had notable issues with walks (14.7% BB%) which has resulted in a not-so-great 1.40 WHIP during those six Triple-A starts. Washington is also swinging some pretty hot bats over the last week or so while also not striking out a ton (and of course they represent a much tougher challenge than any Triple-A team). However, Cabrera will be taking the mound in one of the best pitching environments on the slate and it isn’t absurd to think that he could rack up seven or eight strikeouts over the course of five or maybe six innings with the possibility of earning a win in his first career Major League start. This game is tied for the lowest total on the slate (7.5 O/U) and Vegas is pinning this game as essentially a pick ‘em (WAS -112, MIA -108). Cabrera is an interesting punt play for sure, especially at $5,000 on DK.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

I’m feeling a little déjà vu as my top two stacks will be the same offenses from yesterday: the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels with BOS being the preferred option of the two teams. Both teams are once again in the same hitter-friendly ballparks as yesterday with more questionable pitching coming from the opposition. Unfortunately, when it comes to the LAA stack, you won’t be able to include Ohtani in there considering he is only going to accrue pitching fantasy points tonight, so perhaps they should only be viewed as more of a GPP stack option.

Secondary Stacks

Cleveland Indians vs. Jake Latz (LHP), TEX

Jake Latz is the #50 ranked prospect in the Rangers farm system and will be making his MLB debut tonight. Latz spent most of this season at the Double-A level in the minor leagues and has only recently been elevated to Triple-A where he has pitched only nine innings across two starts. I have to imagine the leash will be short on Latz tonight but if Cleveland gets around four or so innings worth of at-bats against him, they could certainly post some nice numbers in that time. The Indians have rocked a .366 wOBA, .235 ISO, and 130 wRC+ vs. LHPs in the last two weeks and shouldn’t have any issues putting the barrel on the ball against a very inexperienced pitcher making his debut in The Show. It’s obviously a small sample size, but Latz surrendered four home runs in those nine recent Triple-A innings while accounting for a 7.00 ERA, 7.80 xFIP, and a 2.00 WHIP. When the Rangers go to their relievers, they’ll be bringing in a bullpen whose 4.90 xFIP over the last month ranks as the 5th worst in the MLB.

San Francisco Giants vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

Taijuan Walker has shown some significant struggles across his last month-plus of work. Since July 18th (7 GS, 33.2 IP), Walker has combined for a 7.49 ERA, 5.65 xFIP, 1.57 WHIP, 16.8% kRate, 10.1% BB%, .284 AVG, .395 wOBA, and a 2.90 HR/9 Rate. Pretty rough stuff, to say the least. The Giants posted eight runs on the Mets yesterday and are an above average offense vs. RHPs with legitimate power to boot. The Mets bullpen is solid but not quite elite and I could see the Giants stitch together another strong offensive outing in New York this evening.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Texas Rangers vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

I wouldn’t say you have to go out and roll full five-man, or even four-man, Ranger stacks to take advantage of some ownership leverage. But I do believe you can find some viable two or three-man Rangers stacks that could pay dividends. Are they a good offense? Nope. But they have scored at least seven runs in five of their last ten games going back to August 13th. Their .277 AVG in that span ranks 4th in the MLB while their 17.7% kRate checks in as the second lowest. Plesac has been nothing special lately and has acquired a 6.49 ERA, 5.22 xFIP, 17.6% kRate, .351 opp wOBA, and 2.10 HR/9 Rate over his last five starts. The Cleveland bullpen has regressed to a more mediocre unit as well. You’re also looking at one of the cheapest teams possible to stack. On DraftKings, there is only one hitter in the current projected lineup that costs more than $2,800 (Isiah Kiner-Falefa, $3,500) and on FanDuel there is only one hitter over $2,700 (Adolis Garcia, $3,600). There is legitimate value to be had here if Plesac and the Indians bullpen continue to have issues.

One-Off Bats ☝️

2B/SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Blake Snell (LHP), SD

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Lucas Giolito (RHP), CWS

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

1B Jared Walsh | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

SS/OF Amed Rosario | DK: $4k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Latz (LHP), TEX

2B/SS Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.6k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

1B/2B Michael Chavis | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jake Latz (LHP), TEX

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF Brandon Marsh | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Chris Ellis (RHP), BAL

1B Nate Lowe | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

2B Andy Ibanez | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Zach Plesac (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WAS

I honestly almost went back to Kyle Schwarber because he’ll be going yard in Fenway soon, but I’ll make a bit of an against the grain pick today with Jesus Aguilar. When Washington traded away Max Scherzer and Trea Turner to the Dodgers, Josiah Gray was considered perhaps the crowned jewel among the list of prospects that the Nationals received in the deal. It’s easy to see why. In four starts with the Nats, Gray has pitched well enough to acquire a 2.86 ERA. However, one thing he is having major issues with is giving up big hits and in those four starts, Gray has allowed five home runs to the 54 RHBs he has faced, resulting in a 3.40 HR/9 Rate. Jesus Aguilar received a day off yesterday (came in late for a pinch hit RBI) but should find himself back on first base tonight. He quite easily has the most righty on righty power in the Marlins lineup and has sported a .210 ISO vs. RHPs this season behind a 38.1% HardContact%. This is a pitcher’s ballpark but Aguilar has enough power to get one over the fence today. The Nationals bullpen is also allowing 1.62 HR/9 over the last month (3rd highest) so the home run potential doesn’t end for Aguilar once Gray is off the mound.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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