Top MLB DFS Plays 8/24 | Small Slate, Big Arms

August 24, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Here’s to hoping everyone had an awesome weekend! To kick off our Monday, baseball fans and MLB DFS players will be treated to a modest, but alluring seven-game evening slate. Despite the limited number of games, the amount of viable pitching options available is about as deep as you’ll see on a seven-game slate. Out of this evening’s 14 projected starting pitchers, I honestly wouldn’t be too surprised if we see nine or ten of these guys score *at least* 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. Of course, there’s also a strong likelihood that a couple of these talented arms will get blown up… but 'which ones' will be the question. With all of these great pitching options, finding the right bats and stacks will be the trickiest task to tackle today. Landing on the correct offenses is often the toughest part of MLB DFS on any given day, but it just feels even more difficult today. However, now that we’re a little over a month into the season, I believe the sample sizes available within the 2020 MLB data is beginning to get more and more reliable. It’s still difficult as all hell to even try to predict a sport like baseball, but it never hurts to try to find an edge!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Things could always change over the next several hours, but this *should* be a pretty worry-free day when it comes to MLB weather.

COL @ ARI: According to the Diamondbacks ballpark information site, the roof at Chase Field will be open tonight. If that is indeed the case, air temps around first pitch in Phoenix will be around 110 degrees. Solid bump to bats.

MIN @ CLE: Warm with winds near 10 mph blowing out to right field. Those winds provide a super slight bump to bats in what should be a bit of a pitcher’s duel between Kenta Maeda and Aaron Civale.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Trevor Bauer (RHP) | DK: $10.2k, FD: $12k | @ MIL

Despite all of the viable arms on this slate, Bauer should likely be the top guy to target, especially for cash game builds. When it comes to pitching in MLB DFS, strike outs are obviously the most important asset and Bauer’s massive 43.6% kRate this season is 14.9% higher than the next closest guy (Kenta Maeda, 28.7% kRate). Bauer has four starts and 26.1 IP to his credit this season and, in that time, opponents are hitting .093 against him for just a .156 wOBA. Against RHPs, the Brewers’ .270 wOBA is the second lowest in baseball and their 66 wRC+ is the third lowest. They’re also striking out 27.2% of the time, which is the third highest kRate versus RHPs in the MLB. You probably don’t really need me to sell you on how good Bauer is and he's already mowed down this Milwaukee team this season back on August 7th. If you can find two or three value bats, it should be quite manageable to fit him into lineups while still having salary leftover for some bigger bats elsewhere.

Casey Mize (RHP) | DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.8k | vs. CHC

If you want to dip into the contrarian side of things today, Mize could be an interesting low-owned guy to target in GPPs. The number one overall pick in the 2018 MLB draft received a healthy 73 pitch count workload in his MLB debut five days ago. While he did give up seven hits and three earned runs, resulting in a 6.23 ERA, he also struck out seven batters across just 4.1 innings. While I wouldn’t expect him to keep a 35% kRate pace up, I also don’t expect him to give up as many hits and runs as he did in his debut. Over the last two weeks against RHPs, the Cubs are hitting just .218 while striking out 31.2% of the time. We should see Mize’s pitch count rise a bit, maybe into the 85 pitch range, and as long as he doesn’t get rocked early he is absolutely talented enough to work his way to a sneaky 20 DKFP/35 FDFP result. For his salaries, that would be terrific value.

Others to Consider:

Jack Flaherty (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $10k | vs. KC

The only concern with Flaherty is pitch count limitations. In his first start following the Cardinals lengthy absence from action, he only threw 41 pitches across 1.2 innings. If I somehow found out that he was going to be looking at a typical starter’s workload (90+ pitches), then I wouldn’t hesitate to roll him out tonight.

Jesus Luzardo (LHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $7.7k | @ TEX

Luzardo feels like a pretty safe investment if you’re looking to save a bit of salary. He has a fairly strong 23.9% kRate this season with a more impressive 13.4% Swinging Strike Rate beside a 3.79 xFIP. The Rangers have struggled mightily against LHPs this season: .221 AVG, .280 wOBA, 66 wRC+, and a 25.9% kRate. Luzardo has a tough counterpart in Lance Lynn but the A’s are still moderate -143 favorites.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: I get the feeling that the Diamondbacks and Astros will be two of the heavier owned stacks today simply because they’ll be going against the pitchers with the least amount of long term ‘pedigree.’ Batters from both teams are certainly in play, just be aware of the likely high ownership.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Brad Keller (RHP), KC

As I mentioned in the intro, finding the right bats and stacks is definitely the most challenging part of this slate due to all of the talent on the mound. I’m seeing a lot of love going to Keller tonight, and while I don’t view St. Louis as an elite offense, I’m willing to bet against Keller by taking some Cardinal bats. Through three starts and 17.2 IP, Keller has only allowed eight hits and no earned runs. That will give him a .140 opponent AVG and 0.00 ERA. Obviously, those numbers aren’t sustainable for Keller. His BABIP this season is .190 and when you stack that up against his .283 BABIP, you can sense some regression coming his way at some point. His 4.31 xFIP isn’t all that impressive (that’s more or less where his ERA *should* be) and he’s also surrendering a decent amount of walks. The Cardinals have some hitters who could knock some regression into Keller’s numbers and they’ll also get some innings against a fairly mediocre Royals bullpen.

Detroit Tigers vs. Alec Mills (RHP), CHC

I’m pretty hesitant to ever recommend a Tigers stack, unless it’s strictly from a contrarian perspective. But Detroit can pop off on occasion so maybe it can happen tonight. A big mark against Detroit is their tendency to strike out a lot. Against RHPs this season, they’ve struck out a league high 30.1% of the time. However, Mills has been a low strikeout pitcher so far in 2020. This season (22.2 IP) he has just a 16.3% kRate and a 7.3% Swinging Strike Rate -- both are the lowest marks among starters on this slate. He’s also sporting a poor 4.96 xFIP. We saw St. Louis tag him up for seven hits and six earned runs across 3.2 IP in his last start. If the Tigers somehow manage to do something similar, you may find yourself rocketing up the GPP leaderboards because most people aren’t going to want to touch Detroit bats.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Oakland Athletics vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), TEX

The A’s power bats are worth stacking on nearly any occasion but I do wonder how many people will target them tonight against Lance Lynn, who has been terrific this season. Lynn is due for some regression when you stack his 1.37 ERA next to his 4.07 ERA. Even if you construct a mini two-man or three-man Oakland stack, you could get some solid production out of it at low ownership.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Trevor Story | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

Story is a Rockies bat that actually still puts up pretty strong offensive numbers away from Coors Field on a fairly consistent basis. Three of his eight home runs this season have also come against RHPs on the road and Merrill Kelly’s ten barreled hits allowed this season (11.1% Barrel%) is the highest mark among today’s starters. Assuming Arizona does open up the roof tonight, the 110 degree temperatures could help Story in sending one deep.

OF Kyle Tucker | DK: $3.8k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

Tucker has been a merely average to slightly above average hitter this season (.240 AVG, .320 wOBA, 105 wRC+) but a major draw to him this evening is the fact that the Astros have slotted him in the clean-up spot for their last two games. Also, over the last week (23 at-bats), Tucker is hitting .390 with a .531 wOBA, .522 ISO, two home runs and 10 RBI. Tucker, who is a left-handed hitter, has only played 77 games in his MLB career. But if the Astros are aware of his career reverse splits (.306 AVG, .384 wOBA, .250 ISO, 148 wRC+ vs. LHPs) they would do well to put him back in hitting clean-up again tonight against southpaw Patrick Sandoval.

OF David Peralta | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs.Ryan Castellani (RHP), COL

As I hit on under the stacks section above, I’m thinking the D-backs and Astros will have some of the higher-owned players on this slate. If you only want to get slight one-off exposure to these two offenses, which are going against the lesser talented arms on this slate, then grabbing their clean-up hitters is a good way to do it. Peralta is super affordable on both sites and typically hits RHPs very well. In 81 at-bats against righties this season, Peralta is hitting .321 with a .364 wOBA and 129 wRC+ while striking out just 14.6% of the time. Peralta also fares much better at home where his batting average has risen to .349 this season (.415 wOBA) alongside a very strong 162 wRC+. He won’t need to do much to pay off these salaries and his upside is very strong out of that No. 4 spot in the order.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

3B Matt Chapman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), TEX

Chapman essentially has a home run in 10% of his plate appearances against RHPs over the last 20 games (72 PA, 7 HRs). While Lance Lynn is no easy match-up, he has surrendered more hard contact (37.8%) and fly balls (47.2%) to the right side of the plate this season. Chapman also has a pair of dingers against Lynn in just 15 plate appearances, so Chappy is going to be my pick to go yard tonight!

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