Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8/24 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

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It’s time to take over this Tuesday MLB slate! There will be 14 games on tap this evening with no shortage of viable ways to attack these match-ups from a DFS perspective. This should be a fun one so let’s cut straight to the chase and get into some plays for today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We’re lucking out on this large slate with very little in the way of weather concerns. Outside of a stray pop-up hitting a couple of ballparks, there are no significant delay/postponement threats.

Best hitting environments: LAA @ BAL, TB @ PHI, CWS @ TOR, MIN @ BOS, TEX @ CLE, NYY @ ATL, DET @ STL, COL @ CHC

Best pitching environments: WAS @ MIA, CIN @ MIL, KC @ HOU, LAD @ SD

NYY @ ATL (7:20 ET, 9 O/U): Nothing more than your usual low-end chance of a middle-inning pop-up t-storm in Atlanta. In all likelihood, they play without issue.

COL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 9 O/U): This game will carry the most risk of seeing some sort of delay due to scattered pop-up storms, but a postponement scenario is not really in the picture. Even the delay risk is still very low. It’ll be warm and humid with winds blowing out to left at 10 mph -- nice hitting conditions.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Jack Flaherty (RHP), STL | DK: $9.6, FD: $10.3k | vs. DET

Flaherty is two starts in from his return off the 60-day IL and he really hasn’t skipped a beat. In his 12 innings pitched since he was reinstated, he’s allowed only two earned runs (1.50 ERA) -- both solo shot HRs -- alongside a 0.58 WHIP and 31% kRate. He also hit a pitch count of 92 in his last start, so he should face zero significant pitch restrictions moving forward. He draws a match-up with a Detroit team that has been very bad against RHPs lately. In the previous 14 days against righties (283 plate appearances), the Tigers are hitting a mere .207 with a .265 wOBA, .130 ISO, 64 wRC+, and they’ve struck out 27.9% of the time. In Flaherty’s 13 starts in 2021, he has only had two truly poor outings -- both games on the road against quality opponents (@ CIN & @ CWS). He’s been aces at home this year where he has thrown 31.0 IP and acquired a 1.74 ERA, 3.24 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 28.7% kRate, and holding opponents to a .159 AVG/.217 wOBA. The Cardinals are one of the heaviest favorites on the slate (-255) and, while he’ll come with some high ownership, Flaherty should be a strong guy to target up top today.

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9k, FD: $9.6k | vs. NYY

If you’re okay with stomaching some risk against a red hot Yankees team that is riding a 10-game win streak, I’d say Morton has all the makings of a quality leverage play in GPPs against higher owned guys like Jack Flaherty and Corbin Burnes. Morton has been ultra-consistent on the mound lately and has racked up a 30.4% kRate in his previous five starts to go along with a 2.76 ERA, 2.87 xFIP, 0.92 WHIP, and .196 AVG/.242 wOBA. He’s showing some excellent statcast data in the last month as well, particularly when it comes to his very low 14.5% LineDrive% and 21.7% HardContact%. Morton has some strong BvP history going for him as well. In 221 PA against the current Yankees roster, he’s held them to a .228 AVG alongside a 30.3% kRate. While the Yankees have been strong against righties as of late, given their 120 wRC+ over the last two weeks (ranks 6th), they’ve also posted a 27.8% kRate in that span as well. I imagine Morton will surrender some hits and some runs, but I could also see him coming away with 8-10 strikeouts and a pretty solid shot at earning a win/quality start bonus.

Madison Bumgarner (LHP), ARI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.8k | @ PIT

I have to give credit where credit is due… Bumgarner has honestly shown flashes of his former self lately and is pitching some quality baseball. He’s managed to acquire a sharp 2.02 ERA over his previous five starts along with three wins, a 0.90 WHIP, and .214 AVG/.258 wOBA on an average of 94 pitches/gm. He even covered eight complete innings on 105 pitches in his most recent game! Now, he has been receiving a fair amount of luck in that five-game span, evidenced by his 4.56 xFIP and .238 BABIP. He also struck out just 17.4% of hitters during those games as well. But he faces a Pittsburgh offense today that has only a .223 AVG vs. LHPs in the last two weeks along with a 70 wRC+ and 25.7% kRate. Their struggles against lefties have been apparent in more long-term sample sizes as well -- their 70 wRC+ over the last month and 78 wRC+ across the entire season ranks dead last in the MLB. Given the pricing discrepancies between DK and FD, I’m likely only considering MadBum as a value SP2 option on DraftKings where he’s been consistently pushing for 20+ DKFP. On FanDuel, he’s much more of a contrarian GPP play considering guys with more upside are priced close by him (e.g. German Marquez and Luis Garcia).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

I really like both the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels today. Both offenses draw appealing starting pitching match-ups and will step into the batter’s box inside great hitter-friendly ballparks. It is no surprise that those two teams currently lead the slate with the highest implied run totals as well -- BOS with 5.9 implied runs, LAA with 5.6 implied runs.

Secondary Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Singer has racked up a 7.17 ERA and 2.02 WHIP over his previous five starts and will be facing this Houston Astros offense for the second time within the span of six days. Singer did hold Houston in check last Wednesday, limiting them to only two runs on six hits and two walks across 6.2 IP. But I wouldn’t put a ton of faith in him pulling off a repeat performance. Against RHPs in the last two weeks (310 PA), they’re hitting .314 with a .366 wOBA and 139 wRC+ while striking out just 18.4% of the time (ranking 2nd in the MLB in all four categories). The Royals bullpen has certainly tightened up recently, but they still rate out as a fairly league average relief unit. On this large slate, I’d actually expect some fairly low ownership on the majority of these Astros bats.

Cleveland Indians vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

Cleveland has several players who have been posting some huge fantasy scores lately and they’ve really been clicking against lefties. In the 163 plate appearances they’ve had against LHPs in the last 14 days, they’re hitting .296 with a .372 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 134 wRC+. Taylor Hearn’s numbers on the year aren’t horrible (3.97 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.32 WHIP, 23.1% kRate) but they’re much less remarkable when you consider that he has mostly pitched out of the bullpen and been inserted into games in many advantageous situations. The Rangers bullpen has also posted a 4.95 xFIP over the last month, the 5th worst mark in the MLB. Jose Ramirez, Amed Rosario, Franmil Reyes, and Myles Straw would be a few core stack pieces to consider out of Cleveland today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Washington Nationals vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

The Nationals have somewhat quietly been posting some great offensive numbers in the short term and they actually lead the MLB over the last seven days with a 138 wRC+ and .384 wOBA. They’ll get to face off with Jesus Luzardo who ranks last among all starters today with his terrible 7.76 ERA (5.22 xFIP), 1.78 WHIP, and .402 opp wOBA. Luzardo will be supported by a mediocre Marlins bullpen. Aside from Juan Soto, just about every bat in this lineup is dirt cheap as well.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/OF Shohei Ohtani | DK: $6.4k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Taylor Hearn (LHP), TEX

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

1B Pete Alonso | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Sammy Long (LHP), SF

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), NYY

1B/OF Ryan Mountcastle | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Connor Joe | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Justin Steele (LHP), CHC

2B/SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $3k, FD: $3k | vs. Luis Garcia (RHP), HOU

2B Josh VanMeter | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.2k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Alex Dickerson | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Lars Nootbar | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

3B Carter Kieboom | DK: $2.1k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF Lane Thomas | DK: $2k, FD: $2k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

Bubba and Bogman weren’t messing around with their HR Calls today (Jose Ramirez & Shohei Ohtani). If Schwarber can come through for his first homer since being traded to the Red Sox, then we might finally have a 3-for-3 day on our hands. While all his bombs this season have come from when he was with the Nationals organization (and prior to the hamstring/groin injury that kept him from making his Boston debut for a while), Schwarber does still technically have 11 HRs hit in his last 20 games versus RHPs while also accounting for an absurd .778 ISO, .633 wOBA, 247 wRC+, and 51.2% HardContact%. Despite not hitting any homers in that Red Sox uniform yet, he’s still creating plenty of hard contact and he’ll draw a great match-up today. Griffin Jax has given up 2.25 HR/9 this season alongside a high 11.8% Barrel% and 44.1% HardHit%. Once Jax is off the mound, Schwarber could see a couple of at-bats against a Twins bullpen that has been taken deep a fair amount recently. Their 1.49 HR/9 Rate over the last month ranks as the 5th highest among MLB bullpens. I don’t really like using the phrase “he’s due” but, let’s be honest, Schwarber is certainly due to go yard soon.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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