Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🏈 Be sure to subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast with Joe and Chris, available wherever you listen to podcasts! The first preseason show is out now!

The battle for the best team in baseball kicked off last night with the highly anticipated series this weekend between the Yankees and Dodgers. New York certainly put the league on notice with a 10-2 rout including five home runs. They essentially gave Los Angeles a taste of their own medicine when it comes to the long ball. James Paxton continued his dominance in August, improving to 5-0 with a 3.56 ERA this month. Chances are pretty good this is a preview of what we'll be watching in October.

Let's not get ahead of ourselves though, as we have twelve games to talk about on this Saturday slate. I'm going to classify the pitching as serviceable. There are some options that jump out as strong plays but are likely to be chalk, and then there are potential options that could match those obvious chalk plays but they come with their fair share of risk. NOTE: FanDuel has left the later games off of their main slate today. Only the games starting at 7:05 and 7:10 are on the FanDuel main slate (a total of nine games) whereas DraftKings is including the 8:40, 9:07, and 9:10 games - making it a 12 game slate. Here's a look at the Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook

Is this just a tease of the fall weather or are we officially there already? Cooler temperatures across the country today. Not a single game is forecast to be above 80 degrees. Gorgeous weather to go watch a game (or go play 18 holes of golf). This is a slight bump to pitchers across the board but since every game is essentially in the same situation, there's nothing for us to really exploit. No rain threats anywhere and we have some slight winds blowing in at both Target Field in Minnesota and Progressive Field in Cleveland. I wouldn't avoid bats in those games but just be aware the wind may knock down a ball or two. Minnesota still has a 10.5 O/U so the folks in Vegas clearly aren't concerned which means you shouldn't be either.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Madison Bumgarner, SFG | DK: $10.4K, FD: N/A | LHP | @ Oakland

In the expensive tier, Clevinger at home against the Royals is the clear cut top arm of the slate. The only person with a realistic chance of keeping up with him today is Bumgarner, but understand he's very high risk/high reward. MadBum has flashed parts of his old, "ace-like" self throughout this season but he's been volatile and typically strings together a few good starts with a few bad ones. To illustrate my point, let's look at the past month. From 7/23 to 8/3 he made three starts with a 5.68 ERA (5.12 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP and only 19.3% strikeouts. He allowed a ridiculous 56.9% fly ball rate and three home runs during that span. More recently, from 8/8 to 8/18, he's had another three starts but this time with a 2.25 ERA (3.36 SIERA), 0.60 WHIP, and 30% strikeouts. His fly ball rate dropped all the way back down to 39.1% which is more in line with his season average. Like I said - volatile. Further adding to his risk is he just faced this Oakland team two weeks ago. He pitched very well, going seven innings and allowing just two hits, one earned run, and striking out nine but typically the advantage goes to the offense when they get a second shot at a pitcher they recently faced. The Athletics have a ton of power but also have a massive 24.6% strikeout rate which adds to Bumgarner's ceiling. He's a solid tournament pivot off Clevinger today for significantly less money and ownership but just be prepared for the very low floor here.

Chris Bassitt, OAK | DK: $9.6K, FD: N/A | RHP | vs. San Francisco

The mid-tier is similar to the top-tier today in which one pitcher is likely to stand out above the rest. Kyle Gibson will put his 11-6 record up against arguably the worst offense in baseball, Detroit. Pitchers against Detroit has been a profitable strategy all season long. While that does sound tempting, Gibson hasn't exactly been living up to his excellent win-loss record recently. In the month of August he has a 5.96 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with just 14.7% strikeouts and an awful 11.8% walk rate. Meanwhile, Bassitt is going in the total opposite direction. Since the All-Star break, he's 4-1 in seven starts with a 2.36 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 21.6% strikeouts, and just 6.4% walks. That very impressive ERA comes with a much higher 4.47 SIERA, suggesting potential regression, but in his defense he's faced a long line of very difficult opponents. During this seven game span he's gone up against the Astros (twice), the Twins, Brewers, and the Cubs (along with two starts against the White Sox mixed in). The Giants, even despite that amazing run in July, are still just 26th in baseball against right-handed pitching including a .303 wOBA and .170 ISO. Truth be told, Bassitt is a bit expensive and with his lower ceiling he may have a hard time delivering a high ROI, but the floor is solid, the Giants above average strikeout rate will give his ceiling a boost, and his recent track record gives me more confidence in him than in Gibson, despite the match up against the Tigers.

Alex Wood, CIN | DK: $8K, FD: $6.6K | LHP | @ Pittsburgh

Alright, since my first two recommendations are only available on DraftKings today let's use the third one to talk about someone who is standing out to me on FanDuel. Wood hasn't been particularly sharp since his return from the IL a month ago but there's a lot to be optimistic about. We'll start with the price. He's a bit expensive on DraftKings but he's a great value on FanDuel at $1.4K less and has excellent ROI potential at that price. His 5.92 ERA and 1.52 WHIP are not ideal, but they include a 4.45 SIERA and a .338 BABIP which suggest Wood has been a little unlucky in his first few starts this season. He's never been an overpowering pitcher but I do expect his current 19.6% strikeout rate to increase as he gets some more innings under his belt. He's coming off his best strikeout performance of the season punching out six Cardinals in just five innings last time out. His control is as good as ever with just a 3.4% walk rate which will hopefully allow him to pitch deeper into games as he gets more starts under his belt. The best part about Wood today, however, is the match up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that has been horrendous against lefties all season. They are dead last in the league with just a .280 wOBA, .135 ISO, and 71 wRC+. Wood's upside won't blow you away but he definitely gets a boost in this match up and I love his price on FanDuel.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Felix Hernandez, SEA

The King is dead. Sorry, but Hernandez hasn't been good at the Major League level in a long time. Coming off a long stint on the IL this seems like the perfect time to load up on bats against him. Prior to his injury, he had a 6.52 ERA and 1.50 WHIP with only 19.5% strikeouts. I also don't expect him to go very far into this game, which means some extra swings against the weak Seattle bullpen. In addition to the great match up, the Toronto bats are also affordable, further adding to their appeal. Vlad Jr. owns a .912 wOBA+ISO in his last 57 plate appearances against right-handed pitching but is just $4.2K on DraftKings. Billy McKinney, Randal Grichuk, and Teoscar Hernandez all own a wOBA+ISO above .600 against right-handed pitching but all cost less than $4K. I've come to the conclusion that Bo Bichette is not human, so keep playing him.

Minnesota Twins vs. Edwin Jackson, DET

I'm honestly sick of talking about the Twins this season. I feel like they are highlighted in almost every article I've put together. They are just that good and this lineup is incredibly deep. If you've been on them all season, chances are it's been a profitable one for you. Today they have a date with Edwin Jackson who owns a 8.46 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, 15.5% strikeout rate, and 9.4% walk rate. He's allowing a 44.9% hard contact rate and has given up an absurd 15 home runs in just 44.2 innings pitched this season. Nelson Cruz is $5.8K on DraftKings but likely worth every penny with his 1.150 wOBA+ISO in his last 58 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. To help fit Cruz in you can pair him with Jake Cave, who is just $3.3K, coming off a monster two home run game last night and putting up 32 fantasy points. He owns a solid .729 wOBA+ISO in his last 56 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. This Twins lineup, as usual, is in play from top to bottom.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez

Anyone buying Gonzalez's most recent performance? No? Me neither. Retiring 14 straight batters and lasting six innings against Arizona was impressive considering the track record he has but I don't expect Gonzalez to keep it going. He owns a 5.87 ERA (an even worse 5.91 SIERA), 1.57 WHIP, just 13% strikeouts and 10.7% walks. He's allowing 2.05 HR/9 and a 45.2% hard contact rate. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are trending up. After starting August 1-5 they rattled off five straight wins and have won ten of their last 13. They are now a half game on top of the Cubs for the NL Central. I love to target teams fighting for their playoff seeding in late August (even better when they are facing Chi Chi Gonzalez). Marcell Ozuna has double-digit fantasy points in three of his last four games and a 52% hard contact rate in the past two weeks. Dexter Fowler is just $4K on DraftKings despite a .559 wOBA+ISO in his last 68 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. Similar to the Blue Jays, the Cardinals are pretty affordable today with Paul DeJong sitting at just $4.3K and Paul Goldschmidt at just $4.1K.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Wilson Ramos, NYM | DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.5K | C | vs. Max Fried

At the dreaded catcher position, Ramos presents some opportunity at this price tag taking on a lefty today. He's always had favorable splits against left-handed pitching throughout his career and owns a .613 wOBA+ISO in his last 150 games where a left-hander has started. Fried, in his last 20 starts, is allowing a .372 wOBA against right-handed hitters.

JD Martinez, BOS | DK: $4.3K, FD: N/A | OF | vs. Dinelson Lamet

Waaaaaay too cheap for J.D even if he wasn't coming off a monster game last night (3 for 4, 2 home runs, 7 RBI). It's actually unfortunate he had that performance last night because now this is less likely to go under the radar. This is a guy who was $5.4K less than a week ago. An $1,100 discount is a dramatic swing in such a small time frame. He has a .902 wOBA+ISO in his last 59 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. There's too much equity in his salary today for him to go overlooked.

Jason Kipnis, CLE | DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.1K | 2B | vs. Glenn Sparkman

Kipnis continues to live in this under $4K value tier because of his volatility in terms of fantasy production. His fantasy performances (DraftKings scoring) look like this over the past week: 19, 0, 2, 3, 19, 3, 0, 12. You've got to catch him on the right night, but when you do, the ROI potential is massive. He has 2.14 FP/PA, a .340 wOBA, and a .288 ISO against right-handed pitching in the last 20 games. Sparkman has allowed a .395 wOBA and .276 ISO to lefties in his last 20 starts.

Best of luck today!

🏈 Be sure to subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast with Joe and Chris (available wherever you listen to podcasts). The first preseason show is out now!

Let us know if you enjoyed the issue with a 👍/👎!