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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/23 | Staying Sharp Down the Stretch
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/23 | Staying Sharp Down the Stretch
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If you’re like me, you’re anxiously awaiting the start of football season. While the NFL regular season is still a couple weeks out, the college season kicks off tomorrow. It’ll be great to see some actual meaningful, live-action football! Remember that LineStar will have you covered with all the data, info, tools, and written content for both NFL and CFB again this year -- along with Joe and Chris dishing out those awesome NFL PreSnap Podcasts. But as fellow LineStar contributor Greg Landry mentioned recently, don’t take your eye off the ball in your MLB DFS ventures. With so many people shifting their focus towards football, keep in mind that there is still plenty of baseball left and you can catch a lot of the field napping late in the season. We’ve got a juicy 13 game main slate to wrap up the workweek and propel us into the weekend! Once again, there are plenty of big names taking the mound tonight and no Coors Field or Globe Life Park to concern ourselves with. There is quite a bit of lousy pitching as well, but somewhat surprisingly only two games currently carry a double-digit total -- a bit of a rarity this year on a day featuring this many games. It should be a fun one so let’s dive in!
Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:
Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!
Weather Outlook ⛅️
There isn’t any noticeably favorable hitting or pitching weather projected for this evening. With September creeping in, temperatures are slowly cooling down and currently all outdoor games tonight are projected to see conditions hover in the mid-70s at first pitch with no overly significant wind impacts.
The baseball gods have also blessed us with some clear skies across just about every game location. The only spot to watch out for is in Baltimore for the Rays @ Orioles game. Really, that game carries only slight concern but don’t be shocked if they decide on a late start in case there is some lingering rain around first pitch.
Pitchers to Consider
Jack Flaherty (DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.9k) | RHP | vs. Colorado Rockies
I know I mention home/road splits a lot when it comes to evaluating pitchers but it really is one of the more reliable trends to fall back on. If you’ve played MLB DFS even a moderate amount this year, you know Jack Flaherty thrives at home. In 12 home starts this year (71.2 IP), Flaherty has a 2.89 ERA (3.36 xFIP), 30.6% kRate, 0.87 WHIP, and an opponent .184 AVG/.248 wOBA. Tonight will be his first home game in a little over three weeks but as significant as his home/road splits have been across the entire season, he’s really just been pitching lights out no matter where he takes the mound. In his last eight starts (five on the road), across 50.1 innings he has accounted for a 0.89 ERA (3.66 xFIP), 32.1% kRate, 0.77 WHIP, and hitters are batting just .145 against him with a paltry .199 wOBA. We know Colorado shouldn’t be feared nearly as much when they’re away from their beloved Coors Field and even though they tagged up Mikolas yesterday, facing Flaherty with the way he is pitching is a completely different challenge. His prices are getting a bit steep and it seems odd highlighting Flaherty over some other big names. But given the form as well as the strong ceiling, the Cardinals righty is worth a strong look as a -220 favorite this evening.
Zack Greinke (DK: $8.8k, FD: $10.3k) | RHP | vs. Los Angeles Angels
Pricing among pitchers between our two main sites is not really paralleled or mirrored too closely. Among guys at the top, I consider Greinke a bit too cheap on DraftKings, while I’d say Hyun-Jin Ryu is underpriced on FanDuel. Speaking towards Greinke, in three starts he is 3-0 after settling into his new Houston digs and he’ll be making his second home start for the Astros while looking to impress the crowd a bit more than he did back on August 6th against the Rockies. A major downside from deploying a pitcher versus the Angels earlier in the season was their tendency to just not strikeout very much. The tides have shifted a bit lately and their 23.5% kRate versus RHPs over the last month is the 10th highest mark in the league. They’ve also just been very mediocre with a .230 AVG (ranks 25th) and a 96 wRC+ (15th). They still certainly have some tough outs near the top half of the order but among today’s starters, Greinke’s 4.4% Walk Rate and 0.98 WHIP is bested only by Hyun-Jin Ryu. He doesn’t allow many home runs (0.93 HR/9) so it’s tough to imagine the ‘blow up’ risk is very high here. With the stout offense backing him, Greinke and the Astros are very strong -300 favorites today with the Angels holding only a 3.8 implied run total.
Anthony DeSclafani (DK: $6.8k, FD: $7.2k) | RHP | @ Pittsburgh Pirates
I never feel too confident rolling out DeSclafani, especially on the road where his 5.31 ERA is nearly two runs higher than his home 3.55 ERA, but good lord… the Pirates have been awful. Pittsburgh has been slumping almost the entire time since the All-Star break and they’ve scored more than a single run just once in their last six games. The downside here is that they don’t strikeout very much, with just a 17.7% kRate versus RHPs in the last month. But DeSclafani and his 24.1% kRate is about the highest strikeout potential you will find among pitchers in the lower priced tier. I can’t say I recommend him with a ton of confidence but there’s a good ceiling to be had here in GPPs if DeSclafani gets himself into a groove. Peter Lambert at $4,500 on DraftKings is also worth a look as an SP2 punt.
Team Stacks to Target
Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Ty Blach (LHP), Baltimore Orioles
Blach hasn’t been given much run this year, just 15.2 innings thus far in the season. That said, the numbers are abysmal: 12.06 ERA (6.52 xFIP), 16.1% kRate, 2.30 WHIP, .366 AVG, and 2.30 HR/9 on 51.7% Hard Contact. He also has posted a terrible 46.1% LOB% (left on base percentage). In 15 Triple-A starts this year (91 IP), Blach still had a very poor 5.93 ERA (5.43 xFIP) so, while his MLB numbers will level out and get a bit better with time, this guy just isn’t a great big league starter. And, since it has to be mentioned, once Blach is out of the game (perhaps after about four innings), the Rays will see plenty of at bats against that awful Orioles bullpen. Tommy Pham, Travis d’Arnaud, and Jesus Aguilar are probably my favorite two bats here but don’t forget about Willy Adames at the back of the order -- he’s been hitting .330 over the last month and his .404 wOBA and 158 wRC+ in that time are the highest marks on the team.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), Milwaukee Brewers
The D-Backs trail only the Dodgers (33) and the hot-hitting Nationals (31) with their 28 home runs over the last two weeks. While, overall, they’ve been an average offense in that time (99 wRC+), if you’re searching for some home run upside you could find it with a few guys to be worthwhile in this lineup as they step up to the plate at Miller Park. Jordan Lyles isn’t a guy I would have a ton of confidence in today and he could certainly get bullied a bit with his 4.96 ERA (4.59 xFIP) and 1.74 HR/9 with a Hard Contact/Fly Ball Rate both sitting just above 38%. Ketel Marte is one of my favorite bats of the day and I’d also consider Nick Ahmed, Wilmer Flores, and David Peralta. All have been swinging the bat well as of late.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Hector Noesi (RHP), Miami Marlins
The Philly bats have been pretty cold over their last few games but, even in a very pitcher-friendly Marlins Park, I don’t believe I’d shy away from attacking a 32-year-old journeyman pitcher with a career 5.46 ERA and 16.3% kRate. In just 15.1 innings this season, Noesi has already given up six home runs (3.52 HR/9) and even though he is allowing only a .241 batting average in that time, his .205 BABIP signifies some poor regression coming his way. If Philly forces Noesi into an early exit, they’ll face a Marlins bullpen that has a 6.03 ERA (5.57 xFIP) over the last month with a 1.61 WHIP and 2.76 HR/9. Bryce Harper, JT Realmuto, and Corey Dickerson are the guys I’d likely lean towards. If you need a solid floor play, Jean Segura should also do pretty well in this spot.
One-Off Hitters
Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.
Alex Bregman (DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.2k) | 3B/SS | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA
You most definitely want some exposure to Houston bats tonight with the Angels forced into giving Jose Suarez another start. Against southpaws over the last month, Bregman is batting .440 with a .509 wOBA, .280 ISO, and 231 wRC+. Right-handed hitters have been Suarez’s kryptonite this year, especially on the road. He has pitched a total of 17 innings against RHBs on the road this year (83 batters faced) and has already allowed seven home runs (3.71 HR/9) along with a .360 AVG and .444 wOBA. I’m thinking a couple righties in the Astros lineup will bomb one off of Suarez. Bregman will be my prediction to get one of those as my home run call of the night. 💣
Jorge Polanco (DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.8k) | SS | vs. Drew VerHagen (RHP), DET
Polanco was having himself quite a week around the diamond before he and the Twins caught Lucas Giolito on an absolute heater when he threw a three-hit complete game shutout against them on Wednesday afternoon. Still, Polanco was one of the Twins to snag one of those hits and over the last week, he is batting .350 with a .473 wOBA, .385 ISO and a pair of home runs. VerHagen is showing a major weakness to lefty hitters to whom he allows a .373 AVG/.446 wOBA. He’s only allowed one home run to LHBs in 13 innings but if he continues to give up 44.9% Hard Contact then more dingers will come. Not that Polanco is very home run dependent anyway -- he’s often a safe floor play, especially when his bat is hot. I wouldn’t let the dud versus Giolito sway me too much and I’d expect him to regain the momentum he had going earlier in the week.
Randal Grichuk (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.8k) | OF | vs. Justus Sheffield (LHP), SEA
Yeah, so I’m not too sure about this Justus fella but just looking at his 6.87 ERA (6.09 xFIP) at the Triple-A level this season I wouldn’t put a ton of faith in him tonight. After facing the Dodger pitching gauntlet, I’m sure the Blue Jays will be thrilled to get a crack at some lesser quality pitchers. Grichuk is an affordable piece in this lineup who will likely bat somewhere in the 3/4/5 range. He’s been somewhat feast or famine this year but over his last 20 games he’s picking up some slack while hitting .276 (meh) with a .381 wOBA/.329 ISO and six home runs. For the prices, you’re getting really strong upside here.
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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!
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