Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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I hope everyone had a great weekend! A modest Monday main slate will kick off the workweek with six games landing on the docket this evening. All six games currently have either an 8.5 or 9-run over/under and 8-of-12 teams hold an implied run total between 4.5 and 4.8 runs. Also, only one team (Houston Astros) has moneyline odds greater than -138. Essentially we’re looking at mostly evenly matched games that should possess a fair balance between offense and pitching. As a result, there really doesn’t seem to be any ‘must have’ hitters/stacks or pitchers, so I’m expecting a pretty even distribution in ownership across the board today with only a few exceptions. We’ll of course receive the typical huge Tuesday slate tomorrow but let’s try to get the week started off right by crushing this small slate today. Good luck!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There should be no major issues in any of the four outdoor games on the slate.

Best hitting environments: CWS @ TOR, NYY @ ATL, COL @ CHC

Best pitching environments: KC @ HOU, SEA @ OAK

CWS @ TOR (7:07 ET, 8.5 O/U): The Rogers Centre dome is scheduled to be open. 

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Lance Lynn (RHP), CWS | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.1k | @ TOR

Lynn is coming off of his first career ejection in his previous game (vs. OAK) following a bit of drama that included him tossing his belt towards an umpire during a routine foreign substance check. The only reason I’m making note of that is in case people looked at the stats from his last game and were concerned since he only covered four innings on 88 pitches. Under normal circumstances, Lynn is going to push for 100+ pitches nearly every game he starts. He’s acquired a strong 2.26 ERA on the year alongside a 3.94 xFIP, 1.07 WHIP, 27.8% kRate, and .258 opp wOBA. That xFIP being over a run-and-a-half higher than his ERA is a bit concerning, but Lynn almost always brings a strong fantasy floor along with him even in difficult match-ups. The Blue Jays may be one of the more dominant offenses in the league, but they have cooled off a bit as of late. In the last two weeks versus RHPs (345 plate appearances), they’ve posted a .324 wOBA and 103 wRC+, which ranks them 12th in both categories. Lynn posted an excellent performance when he pitched against Toronto back on June 9th, covering seven innings on 95 pitches, striking out nine hitters, and the only run allowed came by way of a solo shot home run. He’ll be the preferred spend up option on the slate.

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.6k | vs. CWS

We’ll see Manoah’s mental fortitude get tested today after coming off of what was easily his worst MLB start in his rookie campaign last Tuesday against Washington (3.0 IP, 53 pitches, 6 H, 1 BB, 6 ER, 2 K). He’ll have a tough counterpart in the aforementioned Lance Lynn and he’ll also have to deal with a White Sox offense that possesses a slew of quality hitters. But, like the Blue Jays, the White Sox have been another typically strong offense that has shown plenty of mediocrity lately. In their last 335 plate appearances versus RHPs, they have posted a .313 wOBA (ranks 18th) and 100 wRC+ (15th) while striking out 25.1% of the time. Manoah leads all pitchers on the slate with a 28.3% kRate and he held this White Sox team to one run across five innings back on June 9th, though they weren’t quite as healthy on offense back then as they are at this point in the season. He’ll still be a worthy DFS target today.

Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC | DK: $8.1k, FD: $8.3k | vs. COL

Being a starting pitcher who draws the Rockies match-up when they’re on the road away from Coors Field has more often than not been a recipe for success this season. Versus RHPs on the road this year, the Rockies have posted only a .207 AVG, .261 wOBA, .099 ISO, and 60 wRC+ -- ranking dead last in the MLB in all four categories. Those trends have continued in the recent short term as well and are actually a decent amount worse -- .189 AVG, .237 wOBA, .045 ISO, 44 wRC+, 28% kRate vs. RHPs on the road in the last two weeks (125 PA). Now, Hendricks hasn’t been a DFS stud this season and his strikeout upside is pretty limited. But, overall, he has been fairly consistent in several stretches this season and I do like his chances of pitching 6+ clean innings and ending the day with around 20 DKFP/35 FDFP. Given the overall lack of appealing SP options in the mid/low salary tiers, I’d be pretty content with that sort of result today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

I’m not head over heels about it, but if there is one offense that stands out today, it would be the Houston Astros at home against a relatively unproven rookie LHP in Daniel Lynch. Lynch was able to lock down the Astros offense for just one run on four hits across seven complete innings last Tuesday, but facing the same team in back-to-back starts within a one-week span is always a dangerous prospect for starting pitchers. I’d be quite surprised to see Lynch pull off a similar performance today.

Secondary Stacks

Seattle Mariners vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

The Mariners will draw a match-up against perhaps the lowest quality starting pitcher on the slate in Paul Blackburn. Blackburn only has one previous MLB start this season, but in 105 IP in his career, he has racked up a 5.66 ERA, 4.77 xFIP, 1.44 WHIP, .288 opp AVG, and only an 11.9% kRate. He also has a very poor 61% Left-on-Base % in those 105 innings pitched. The Mariners have been sneaky good against righties lately and their 122 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks ranks them 4th in the MLB in that span. Blackburn will be followed up by a not terrible, but overall mediocre Oakland A’s bullpen.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Will Crowe (RHP), PIT

Count the D-Backs in as another offense that has been better than you might expect lately. They have posted a .337 wOBA, .336 OBP, and 110 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last 14 days, which places them inside the top 10 offenses in the league during that stretch. Wil Crowe is pitching fairly decently lately but his underlying metrics suggest some notable regression is coming sooner rather than later. On the year, Crowe’s 5.23 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, .370 wOBA, and 19.8% HR/FB Rate also check in as the worst figures among today’s starting pitchers. The Pirates relievers have ranked among the bottom 10 in the league in essentially every key bullpen metric over the last month as well. There are plenty of very affordable bats within this D-Backs order which will be helpful if you’re looking to spend up on a guy like Lance Lynn at pitcher while still having room for a few big bats to slot in elsewhere.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

The Pirates are the Pirates and will seldom do anything noteworthy with their bats. However, they’ll draw a soft match-up against Humberto Mejia, who only has 10 IP at the MLB level in his career (and those ten innings have not gone well for him). In 12 starts in Triple-A this year, Mejia has come away with a 5.93 ERA, 4.83 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, and .302 opp AVG. The Pirates may be one of the worst offenses in the MLB on the year but if minor leaguers are hitting .300 against Mejia, I can only imagine that some of these Pittsburgh bats can find some success against him as well. Arizona also possesses a bottom 10 ranked bullpen which has acquired a 5.59 ERA over the last month.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.4k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

SS Carlos Correa | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

2B/SS/OF Josh Rojas | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

2B/OF Whit Merrifield | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

OF Jorge Soler | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Jordan Montgomery (LHP), NYY

1B/2B Ty France | DK: $3.7k, FD: vs. Paul Blackburn (RHP), OAK

Salary Savers

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/3B Josh Harrison | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.1k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

SS Nicky Lopez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zack Greinke (RHP), HOU

1B/OF Frank Schwindel | DK: $2.7, FD: $3.3k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

OF Jake Meyers | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Christian Walker | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Bryan Reynolds | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Humberto Mejia (RHP), ARI

I really wanted to target Humberto Mejia and the volatile D-Backs bullpen today. Unfortunately, the Pirates don’t have many guys who show consistent home run power. Reynolds is more of a pure hitter who could very likely end the year with a .300 batting average, but he has posted a very serviceable .288 ISO and .413 wOBA against RHPs in the last month. In his 10 IP in the MLB (all came last season), Mejia allowed seven barreled balls, a 45.2% HardHit%, and an average exit velocity of 93 mph. Reynolds makes quality contact against most everyone he faces, so he’s not a bad bet to get the barrel on a pitch from Mejia and deliver one over the fence today.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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