Top MLB DFS Plays 8/21 | “Welcome to Slam Diego”

August 21, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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The San Diego Padres made some MLB history last night when they blasted a grand slam for the fourth game in a row. Some would say there is a level of karmic justice at work. As many will recall, certain corners of the sport lambasted Fernando Tatis Jr. for “violating the unwritten rules of baseball” when he launched the first of those four grand slams this past Monday in the top of the eighth inning off of a 3-0 count when the Padres were already up 10-4. He was criticized to the point where he felt the need to publicly apologize. I say if a team doesn’t want you to score, then pitch better. Also, since when is a six run lead guaranteed to lead to a win, especially when the opposing team has two more innings to hit? Anyhow, I just thought it was pretty awesome that the overly criticized ‘granny’ by Tatis Jr. on Monday ultimately led to a new MLB record. Also, if you haven’t seen it, the Padres’ broadcaster had a great call for Hosmer’s record breaking grand slam (linked below).

But we’re here for some MLB DFS discussion so let’s get to it! A 12-game main slate (NYY @ NYM postponed) will kick off our weekend, so there is plenty to dissect. Pitching is going to be much more difficult to figure out than it was yesterday when you where able to just plug in guys like Bieber, Kershaw, Lamet, or Berrios (if you were bold enough to play him, nicely done) and go from there with your bats. But the lack of deep elite pitching kind of insinuates that more offenses should be in strong spots. Let’s see what we can cook up tonight!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

BOS @ BAL: Outside chance out a passing storm but seems pretty unlikely.

ARI @ SF: Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind but it will be blowing out to left/center around 10 mph for much of this game. Could help ever so slightly.

PHI @ ATL: We all remember what happened in Atlanta a couple days ago, right? While the postponement/delay risk isn’t nearly as high today, it’s always worth seeing what the radar is looking like around Atlanta once we get close to first pitch (7:10 pm ET). Summertime pop-up storms can come out of nowhere in this area of the country.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Nola (RHP) | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.7k | @ ATL

If you’re like me, when picking your pitchers today no matter who you click on when constructing your lineups, there isn’t a ton of confidence behind each click. Nola’s match-up with the Braves is no cake walk (ATL: .350 wOBA, 119 wRC+ vs. RHPs) but at the same time, his best start of the season from a fantasy perspective came against Atlanta on August 10th. In that game he pitched eight full innings and allowed just one earned run on two hits while striking out ten batters -- good for 38.2 DKFP, 61 FDFP. Nola leads all pitchers today with a massive 39.8% kRate and 14.8% Swinging Strike Rate next to a 2.05 ERA and basement level 1.94 xFIP. Even if the Braves do get some run production on Nola this go ‘round, the strikeout upside should still be there, as they have posted a 26.1% kRate versus RHPs this season.

Chad Kuhl (RHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $6.6k | vs. MIL

Kuhl has only pitched 14 innings this season, so this isn’t a huge sample size to go off of, but he has posted an impressive 33.3% kRate, 12.8% Swinging Strike Rate, and a strong 3.70 xFIP and 1.00 WHIP. The Brewers have been a pretty disappointing offense up to this point and their .267 wOBA and 64 wRC+ against RHPs are both the second lowest figures in the league. On top of that, they’re striking out versus righties a lofty 28.1% of the time. You won’t need a massive day out of Kuhl for him to pay off these salaries and he could be a preferred target if you’re looking to load up on big bats.

Others to Consider:

Max Fried (LHP) | DK: $8.9k, FD: $9.4k | vs. PHI

On the books, this game is essentially a pick ‘em and carries just an eight run implied total, so we could certainly see a bit of a pitcher’s duel between Fried and Nola this evening. Fried pitched five scoreless innings against the Phillies on Aug. 9th while recording six strikeouts and 23.7 DKFP/39 FDFP. Philly is typically tough against LHPs but Fried could post a similar result today.

Jake Odorizzi (RHP) | DK: $9k, FD: $6.5k | @ KC

I’m not really vibing with him for $9k on DraftKings, outside of some GPP exposure, but Odorizzi could be a massive bargain at his price tag on FanDuel. I hate the fact that his only two starts this season have come against Kansas City, so obviously this will be the third time they’re seeing him in 13 days. But he is still a talented enough pitcher who deserves to be priced higher than $6,500.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: With 24 teams set to play, and so many being in potentially great spots, I’m not entirely sure any one team will be overly chalky. Maybe one or two teams will start to rise in projected ownership as the day progresses, but right now I think everything will be fairly spread out.

Chicago White Sox vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC

The White Sox have been lefty killers this season. As a team against LHPs, they’re batting .291 (ranks 5th) while posting a .394 wOBA (1st), .286 ISO (1st), and 155 wRC+ (1st). Some may look at Jon Lester’s 2.74 ERA and be concerned, but his 5.39 xFIP and .188 BABIP tells us he is due for some considerable regression. The White Sox have been ‘white hot’ lately and have mashed 18 home runs out the park in the last week. The Cubs don’t really have a great bullpen either so if they tag up Lester early, we could see them rack up around 8+ runs and multiple home runs.

San Francisco Giants vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), ARI

Don’t look now but the San Francisco Giants are on a bit of a roll. Over the last week, they’re hitting .284 as a team alongside a .362 wOBA, .224 ISO, and 133 wRC+ while crushing 13 home runs and striking out 18.1% of the time. That may be bad news for a guy like Robbie Ray, who more or less relies on strikeouts. While he does have a solid 25% kRate this season, that’s about the only bright spot on his 2020 resume. Through five starts and 22.0 IP, Ray has recorded an 8.59 ERA, 6.89 xFIP, 1.91 WHIP, and 2.86 HR/9. Against LHPs, the Giants rank inside the top 10 in nearly every major offensive statistic this season and most guys in the lineup are fairly affordable. Honestly, I could see the Giants ending up being a little chalky tonight but I’m still down to roll ‘em out.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Colorado Rockies vs. Walker Buehler (RHP), LAD

Hardly anyone ever looks to stack the Rockies when they’re on the road and away from Coors Field -- especially when they’re still priced as if they’re playing in Coors (more so over on DK). Also, most people steer clear from stacking against the Dodgers pitching staff. It’s a pure leverage contrarian play but the Rockies did score 14 runs over the last two days in Houston. You also don’t really need to run full five man Colorado stacks to be overly contrarian. Most of the big bats in this lineup, like Blackmon, Story, and Arenado, will likely be under 10% owned.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP), SEA

Gallo gets a crack at a lefty so it’s time to see if those somewhat odd reverse power splits kick in. Gallo has had just 29 at-bats against LHPs this season but he has hit five home runs against them already which has led to a massive .432 wOBA and .552 ISO. Margevicius has also shown some poor reverse splits through his brief MLB career and has actually been terrible in lefty-on-lefty scenarios. Across 23.0 career innings pitched against lefties, he is allowing a .363 AVG, .446 wOBA, .314 ISO, and 2.35 HR/9 while striking out just 12.3% of hitters. We could definitely see another Gallo-bomb tonight.

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Dakota Hudson (RHP), STL

I wrote up Winker in this one-off section yesterday and I’m going back to him again. While he didn’t have a phenomenal day (1-for-4, 1 BB, 1 R) he still has those insane numbers over the last week and a half and his salaries have hardly budged. His numbers since August 9th (eight games): 24 at-bats, 13 hits (.542 AVG), .762 wOBA, .833 ISO, six home runs, 391 wRC+. Until Winker either starts posting a bunch of goose eggs in the box score or his salaries rise a significant amount, he should be in line for DFS consideration. Dakota Hudson has pitched just 8.1 innings this season but across his entire career versus LHBs, he has a poor 5.58 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and allows a .344 wOBA and 43.7% Hard Contact Rate.

OF Austin Slater | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), ARI

Slater has been playing extremely well and will come in on the cheap tonight while also getting lead-off duties for a Giants team that has been rolling along nicely. Over the last two weeks (33 plate appearances), Slater is hitting .407 with a .586 wOBA, .556 ISO, and has four home runs as well as five stolen bases (!!!). In that time frame, Slater’s 281 wRC+ ranks fourth in baseball (min. 20 PA). Slater is also a .300 career hitter against lefties (.450 this season) and I love the stolen base upside he provides. If you missed it, you can scroll up to the stack section and see just how bad Robbie Ray has been this season.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Nick Margevicius (LHP), SEA

I’m probably jinxing it, but my home run calls have come through for me 3-of-4 days this week so I’m really hoping Gallo can kick off the weekend with a bomb tonight. Even though, in all likelihood, he will only get one or two at-bats against Margevicius, the strong reverse splits for Gallo against the poor reverse splits for Margevicius are too tempting to ignore. I’m looking for Gallo to go deep early in this game but, in case he doesn't yam one against Marge, that Mariners bullpen does give up quite a few home runs as well.

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