Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🏈 1st Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC East for the upcoming NFL DFS season!

🔊 8/21 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 13:14 Mike Minor on FD

• 14:47 Patrick Corbin @ Pirates

• 16:21 Red Sox Bats

• 17:52 Sneaky Stack of the Night

• 19:55 Julio Teheran vs. Miami

• 21:34 Milwaukee Bats

• 22:28 Yu Darvish

• 25:11 Yankees @ Oakland

• 27:46 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Hopefully not many of you got Aaron Sanchez’d too hard yesterday. It was a helluva night across MLB and we’ll look to keep it rolling into this eleven game evening slate. Once again, we’ll have some pretty strong pitching options to choose from at each pricing level, especially up top. If you’re going to look to prioritize one of the top guys then finding value bats (and/or a cheap SP2 on DK) that won’t lay goose eggs for you will be crucial. Plenty to get to along with some weather concerns out in the east so let’s hop right to it!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook ⛅️

I’d be surprised if every game plays dry today so expect at least a couple rain delays to come into the picture this evening. The primary games to keep an eye on include: MIL @ STL, PHI @ BOS, CLE @ NYM, KC @ BAL, and SF @ CHC. Of those areas, currently it seems storm coverage will be most threatening in St. Louis, Boston, and New York. Very low postponement chances in all of these games but definitely keep an eye on these forecasts closer to first pitch.

Pitchers to Consider

Preface: Justin Verlander, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Corbin are today’s top pitchers who are all in spots ranging from good to excellent. I don’t think you need me to really tell you that they’re all in play. Also… a -550 moneyline on Verlander and the Astros? That’s an insane number you don’t see often in baseball.

Yu Darvish (DK: $10k, FD: $9.7k) | RHP | vs. San Francisco Giants

Darvish has certainly found his stride as he has not posted a truly poor performance in over two months, dating back to June 15th (11 starts). In that time he has put up a 3.38 ERA (2.90 xFIP!), 33.7% kRate, 0.81 WHIP, 30.4% Hard Contact with an opponent .193 AVG/.259 wOBA. Really, the only thing he has struggled with in that stretch is home runs, in which he has allowed 1.80 HR/9. Not atrocious but not pretty either. Winds are projecting to be blowing in from left at Wrigley Field tonight where wind actually can play a noticeable factor, so perhaps that could aide in knocking down a few fly balls. The Giants aren’t exactly the same inept team from earlier in the season when we could often just take the “set it and forget it” approach when playing opposing pitchers against them. Still, versus RHPs over the last month they have a below average 94 wRC+ (ranks 17th) and haven’t shown an extreme amount of power with a team .162 ISO (22nd). Darvish and the Cubs are stout -240 home favorites this evening and he’ll be an interesting pivot away from other guys up top.

Julio Teheran (DK: $8k, FD: $9k) | RHP | vs. Miami Marlins

This is probably the obvious play outside of the elite tier, but hey, still worth mentioning. Teheran’s ceiling is always in question, particularly this year, as he has only eclipsed 24 DKFP twice. Fortunately, both of those times were against Miami. In four starts against the Marlins (25 IP), Teheran has allowed only a single run (0.36 ERA) alongside a 23.2% kRate, 0.80 WHIP, and opponent .161 AVG/.205 wOBA. Despite getting blasted by the Mets for six runs on eight hits and three walks through just 1.1 innings in his last appearance on the mound at SunTrust Park, Teheran is typically more reliable at home. With a strong offense backing him and Miami’s inability to hit right-handed pitching, Teheran should carry a nice floor tonight with a solid shot at a win as the Braves are strong -185 favorites. As previously mentioned, the ceiling isn’t incredible with him so if you want to pivot elsewhere in GPPs then I have no issues with that.

Mike Montgomery (DK: $4.2k, FD: $7.5k) | LHP | @ Baltimore Orioles

You only have to look at those prices to determine that Montgomery is more of a DraftKings SP2 play. But hell, he could be worth a shot on FanDuel as well, coming in ultra low owned there. That $4,200 salary is simply too cheap now that Montgomery is starting to actually deal while stretching further into games. In his last three starts (18 IP) he has given up just two earned runs (both to Boston) while throwing 31.4% strikeouts, forcing 52.3% ground balls, and producing a 1.00 ERA (2.77 xFIP) and 1.06 WHIP. Clearly much of his damage was done during his seven inning, 12 K, shutout performance versus Detroit. However, versus LHPs over the last month, Baltimore’s 88 wRC+ (24th) ranks just one spot ahead of Detroit's 84 wRC+ and the O’s have been striking out slightly more -- 26.5% kRate versus DET’s 24.5% kRate. There’s just no way Montgomery should be overlooked on DK at this price (and he probably won't be if people want to pay for Verlander too).

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Disclaimer: Well, the over on that LAA/TEX 12 run total was certainly never in much danger yesterday, even while going to extra innings. Who knows, perhaps playing the second leg of a doubleheader in 100 degree heat was not the Angels and Rangers idea of a good time. Regardless, we know what kind of scores can be put up in this ball park and this weather so neither team here will be mentioned as stack options. But after yesterday I doubt many people look here for bats, so perhaps going here for GPP stacks could net you low ownership with high potential.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Wilmer Font (RHP) + Bullpen, Toronto Blue Jays

Going back to the well again here with some Dodger bats. I’m not exactly expecting another 16 run onslaught but in a match-up with Toronto’s opener + bullpen, I would not predict a Dodgers dud. Font has actually pitched well lately in his opener role and will typically go a couple innings. Though, it’s noteworthy that he has a 5.70 ERA (5.11 xFIP) and opponent .283 AVG/.362 wOBA when on the road this year. Behind Font is a not-so-great Blue Jays bullpen which has a 4.76 ERA (5.03 xFIP) over the last 30 days while allowing 1.70 HR/9. Zack Godley is a candidate to get a good chunk of the relief work -- that’s a pitcher that doesn’t worry me whatsoever. There’s really nothing wrong with rolling out hardly anyone in this Dodger order. Will Smith and Justin Turner are probably my favorite of the bunch though -- with Max Muncy and Cody Bellinger being the more obvious, but pricier options.

New York Yankees vs. Mike Fiers (RHP), Oakland Athletics

Is it possible that the Yankees are a contrarian stack today? West coast games often get overlooked a bit, aside from the occasional Dodger chalk night, and the Yankees are struggling over the last few games (relative to what they were doing a couple weeks ago). Also, Mike Fiers has a stout 2.89 ERA at home this year -- but that feels a bit hollow when you notice his poor 5.49 xFIP. This is a tough park for hitters but many of these powerful Yank bats have discounted price tags today so they could be worth a shot in some GPP builds. Guys like Gary Sanchez, Aaron Judge, Gio Urshela, and Cameron Maybin are my favorite bets to produce tonight.

New York Mets vs. Adam Plutko (RHP), Cleveland Indians

The Mets are one team I personally have not given enough stack consideration to since earlier in the year but as they’ve often shown, even in their very pitcher-friendly home park, they can string together plenty of runs. Plutko’s 5.29 ERA (5.78 xFIP) and .314 opponent average on the road this year sticks out tonight. He’s also allowing 2.40 HR/9 while recording just 14.2% strikeouts. For a low strikeout pitcher who is only forcing 29.8% ground balls, this could be bad news even in a strong pitcher’s park like Citi Field. It will be warm and humid here with winds blowing out to center around 10-15 mph so I wouldn’t be surprised if the over hits here (currently at nine runs). Pete Alonso, JD Davis, and Michael Conforto all have at least a .321 ISO and 167 wRC+ versus RHPs in the last month. Some value can be had between Amed Rosario and Joe Panik as well, assuming they bat first and second in the order once again. Conforto will be my pick to go yard today. 💣

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

JD Martinez (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.2k) | OF | vs. LHP Drew Smyly, PHI

I feel like I’ve got a hex on JD Martinez because whenever I throw him in as a ‘one off’ recommendation he always seems to dud. So beware. If he goose eggs tonight or puts up something like 1-4 with a walk, maybe there is something to this curse. But with the Red Sox carrying the highest implied run total of the day (6.4 runs), some exposure should be given to their offense. If you’re not stacking Boston, with a lefty on the mound for Philly, you know Martinez will often stand out as a strong one off play. Versus LHPs this year Martinez is hitting .393 with a huge .541 wOBA and .455 ISO on 45.9% Hard Contact and a 232 wRC+. After tricking us into believing he was good a few weeks ago, Drew Smyly is back to struggling. He’s shown poor reverse splits this year but he still gives up plenty of production to righty bats (.376 wOBA, .244 ISO, 2.11 HR/9). JD should have a good chance to produce some fireworks on his 32nd birthday.

Jose Ramirez (DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k) | 3B | vs. RHP Marcus Stroman, NYM

I’m willing to bet Ramirez won’t see much ownership tonight yet he’s been excellent lately, especially against righty pitching. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (53 plate appearances), he’s hitting .312 with a .453 wOBA, .458 ISO, and five homers. The pitching match-up with Marcus Stroman is clearly not ideal but that should drive Ramirez’s ownership down even further. Remember, as mentioned above, there should be some sneaky good hitting weather in this game so a few home runs from both sides of this one wouldn’t be a surprise.

Ryan O’Hearn (DK: $3k, FD: $2.4k) | 1B | vs. RHP Aaron Brooks, BAL

O’Hearn isn’t great by any means but he’s cheap, batting sixth, and gets to face likely the worst starter of the day in Aaron Brooks. Some of O’Hearn’s struggles could be linked to some bad luck with a very poor .210 BABIP. Considering his BABIP was just under .300 across 44 games during his rookie season last year, some positive regression could be due. Brooks allows a .294 AVG, .396 wOBA, and .294 ISO to LHBs and has a 9.22 ERA since July 13th (27.1 IP). With O’Hearn landing towards the middle of the Kansas City order, there’s plenty of opportunity for production for as long as Brooks is on the mound. As usual, that O’s bullpen is nothing to be scared of either.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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