Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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It’s time to lock it in for a colossal 14-game Friday main slate! We’ll have great pitching to choose from, strong bats/stacks to consider, and the weather should not present any major postponement concerns. Let’s keep this intro short and sweet and dive right into the nitty-gritty, shall we? Good luck tonight, guys! Let’s start the weekend off right!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

A couple of games could have some low-end risk of experiencing brief spouts of rain but, overall, there are zero postponement concerns on this slate. There are also no incredibly warm temperatures or impactful winds to speak of either.

Best Hitting Environments: ATL @ BAL, LAA @ CLE, MIA @ CIN, TEX @ BOS, PIT @ STL, ARI @ COL

Best Pitching Environments: CWS @ TB, PHI @ SD

MIN @ NYY (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Low coverage scattered showers could bring slight delay risk to this game but even if one of those storms runs over the ballpark, they may just play through it.

TEX @ BOS (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Pretty much the same deal as New York. Perhaps a bit less likely they’d see any rain here, but just double-check the forecast prior to lock.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Chris Sale (LHP), BOS | DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.7k | vs. TEX

I couldn’t pass up the chance to write up Chris Sale for the first time in two years! While he probably still has a touch of rust to shake off, he looked solid last Saturday against Baltimore in his first MLB start since 2019. He gave up six hits, including a couple of homers, but still struck out eight batters with zero walks on 89 pitches across 5.0 IP while earning the win -- good for 23.7 DKFP/39 FDFP. Of course, the Orioles aren’t the toughest opponents to deal with, but neither are these Rangers that he’ll be facing today. Texas is hitting just .223 with a .265 wOBA and 67 wRC+ versus LHPs over the last two weeks. Sale should likely see his pitch count stretch into the 90s and Boston will head into this evening as the slate’s heaviest favorite (-310).

Max Fried (LHP), ATL | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.9k | @ BAL

The only real worry with Fried today is the fact that he’ll be pitching in the hitter-friendly Camden Yards. Other than that, what’s not to like? Baltimore is striking out 27.3% of the time against southpaws across the last two weeks while hitting .225 with a .279 wOBA, 76 wRC+, and they’re drawing walks a mere 3.7% of the time. Over his last five starts, Fried’s 99 pitches per game trails only Walker Buehler and Lance McCullers Jr. on the slate and he has landed a 2.40 ERA in that span alongside a sharp 1.17 WHIP and 27.6% kRate. The Orioles are losers of 15 consecutive games entering today meanwhile the Braves are 13-2 over their last 15 games. Fried will be a very appealing mid-range target.

Austin Gomber (LHP), COL | DK: $5.9k, FD: $6.8k | vs. ARI

Let’s keep the southpaw trend going with Gomber! To state the obvious concern -- yes, he’ll be pitching at Coors Field which may force him into being a contrarian GPP only play. But, while it may not count for much at Coors, there will be winds blowing in from center field around 10 mph today. Also, Gomber has honestly been lights out at home this season. In eight starts and 42.1 IP at Coors Field this year, Gomber has earned a 5-1 record with an absurd 1.70 ERA along with a 3.79 xFIP, 0.85 WHIP, 23.3% kRate, 0.85 HR/9 Rate, .172 AVG, and .235 wOBA. Now, the D-Backs have been sneaky good against lefties lately (.309 AVG, .356 wOBA, 121 wRC+ L2Wks) but that’s just another part of the risk with rolling Gomber out today. Gomber did miss his last scheduled start on Wednesday but it wasn’t due to injury (paternity list) so no worries there. The Rockies have been exceptionally solid at home and will be strong -194 favorites to win today. If Gomber cracks that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold, I believe you’d take that at these salaries… and there’s certainly room for more upside than that.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

The Colorado Rockies, New York Yankees, and Atlanta Braves will check in as three very favorable offenses to target tonight.

Secondary Stacks

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

After some notable struggles, Keller was demoted to Triple-A in mid June then was brought back up at the beginning of August, and just hasn’t shown much proficiency on the mound. In his last five MLB starts, he has an awful 7.41 ERA and 2.18 WHIP while striking out only 14.1% of hitters. He has also allowed a very high 32.7% Line Drive % and is forcing a mere 7.7% Soft Contact Rate. The fact that a struggling Pirates bullpen, who have posted a 4.82 xFIP and 1.48 WHIP over the last month (5th worst), will be following up Keller is all good news for the Cardinal bats. St. Louis has been a top 10 offense over the last 14 days with a team .344 wOBA and 117 wRC+. They also rank 4th in the MLB in that span with a .349 OBP. If Keller continues to allow more than two base runners on per inning, the Cardinals could turn this into a very lopsided affair early on.

Boston Red Sox vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Dunning is not a bad starting pitcher but one thing is certain… he has not had much success on the road this year. In nine road starts (37.2 IP), Dunning is 0-5 with a 6.45 ERA, 4.53 xFIP, 1.70 WHIP, 19% kRate, .307 AVG, and .385 wOBA. Fenway Park is the #2 ranked hitter’s park and in the last two weeks at home (244 plate appearances), Boston is hitting .321 with a massive .426 wOBA, .287 ISO, and 168 wRC+ while striking out only 15.8% of the time. They’ve simply been lights out in Fenway lately. Dunning won’t typically throw more than about 75 pitches so we should expect to see a poor Rangers bullpen (4.93 xFIP over the last month, 4th worst) for around half of the innings in this game.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Austin Gomber (LHP), COL

Despite the Coors Field bump, I actually don’t expect a ton of ownership to land on the D-Backs today. While I do like Gomber as a cheap punt at pitcher today, I also realize that he likely isn’t going to be able to maintain that 1.70 ERA at home considering his 3.79 xFIP (at home) is over two runs higher. As I also noted with Gomber, the D-Backs have been very solid against left-handed pitching lately, hitting .309 with a .356 wOBA and 121 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Most of these Arizona bats aren’t even expensive and many will be <10% owned.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF/SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Matt Moore (LHP), PHI

3B Austin Riley | DK: $5.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $5k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.9k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

OF Giancarlo Stanton | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Charlie Barnes (LHP), MIN

OF Kyle Schwarber | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Tyler O’Neil | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

2B/OF Tommy Edman | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Mitch Keller (RHP), PIT

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Charlie Barnes (LHP), MIN

OF Connor Joe* | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Tyler Gilbert (LHP), ARI

OF Luis Robert* | DK; $3k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

1B/2B/3B Phil Gosselin | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Sam Hentges (LHP), CLE

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), MIA

2B/3B/SS Andrew Velazquez | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | Charlie Barnes (LHP), MIN

*DK Preferred

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

The Braves will draw a bad opposing starting pitcher who will be supported by an equally bad bullpen… so, there are plenty of Atlanta bats that look great today. Albies is arguably the best Braves bat against lefties and has posted a .325 AVG, .406 wOBA, and .286 ISO versus southpaws this season. Keegan Akin has actually only allowed one home run in 22.2 IP at home this season, but I simply don’t see that as a sustainable trend. He’s allowing a .200 ISO to RHBs and is giving up quite a few barreled balls and hard contact. According to baseballsavant.com, Camden Yards has rated out as the #1 ballpark in adjusted home run factor this season and Ozzie has delivered four home runs over the fence in his last eight games. He’ll be a solid bet to go yard once again today.

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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