Top MLB DFS Plays 8/20 | A Pitcher-Centric Evening

August 20, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Yesterday was a proper reminder of how quickly weather conditions can change a slate. If you were tracking the forecast in Atlanta leading up to lineup lock yesterday, you likely either consolidated all of your exposure to that game into one lineup, or a smaller group of lineups, or you simply faded the game altogether. Obviously the latter decision ended up being the right play since the postponement announcement came down the wire a few minutes after lock. If you decided to roll the dice with heavy exposure, well, your night ended pretty early. You definitely weren’t alone though. Several players in that game were 30+% owned in various contests and much of that ownership certainly came from DFS players who simply weren’t keeping up with the weather situation. But it just goes to show that there is a definite edge to at least spending a few minutes before first pitch to run a final check on things like potential weather and lineup changes. I can’t say with 100% certainty, but I get the feeling that the MLB is going to often be pretty quick to postpone games that they would otherwise try to play in any other non-pandemic-impacted season.

Moving onward to today, we have a fairly modest eight game main slate as many other teams are playing throughout the afternoon and early evening. This will be more of a pitcher-dominated night as many teams are rolling over to the top of their pitching rotation. This level of arm talent is rarely even found on full 12+ game slates, so it’ll be interesting to see which guys play well enough to pull away from the pack.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

Fortunately the skies seem like they’ll be pretty clear across all the game locations this evening. Very light 5mph winds blowing out to left in the BOS @ BAL game as well as some 10+ mph winds blowing out to left in the LAA @ SF game. San Francisco’s Oracle Park typically mitigates much of the wind but it could be strong enough tonight to ever so slightly help carry baseballs a bit further.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Shane Bieber (RHP) | DK: $10.6k, FD: $12k | @ PIT

This is another one of those days where I’m not looking to get cute here when it comes to pitching. Not only does Bieber have likely the highest ceiling of any guy on this slate, but he draws perhaps the best match-up as well. On the season, Pittsburgh still ranks dead last in the league against RHPs with a .242 wOBA, .109 ISO, 50 wRC+ and they’re striking out 24.4% of the time. Just yesterday, they produced a single run (which came in the final inning) on five hits against a complete game performance from Aaron Civale. Bieber has been absolutely dominant through his five starts and 34.2 IP this season. He sports a 1.30 ERA, 1.66 xFIP, .209 wOBA, and is striking out hitters with a monstrous 42.9% kRate and 19.8% Swinging Strike Rate. As most know, any pitcher can get blown up by any team on any given day… but it’s tough to see that happening to Bieber here. Cleveland is a massive -260 favorite and, even though Bieber may end up being the highest owned pitcher today, this may be some chalk worth eating.

Kevin Gausman (RHP) | DK: $6.5k, FD: $7.7k | vs. LAA

If you’re looking for a more affordable arm, Gausman’s track record this season makes him a pretty clear standout target. Across his four starts, he is averaging 19.8 DKFP and 33.8 FDFP. Those four starts also came against some pretty tough competition. He’s taken the mound against the Padres, the Rockies (in Coors), the Dodgers, and the Athletics while posting a strong box score in each outing. He holds a strong 3.15 xFIP while striking out 31.8% of hitters alongside a 14.5% Swinging Strike Rate. The Angels do have a scary group of hitters in the middle of that lineup but they have struggled their way to two runs against the Giants in each of their last two games. And that came against Johnny Cueto, Trevor Cahill, and a bunch of relief pitchers. They could burst out of this little slump at any time but, with the way Gausman is pitching this season, I’m not sure if it’ll be tonight. I am skeptical about just how long Gausman can keep this up, so I’d only roll him out in GPPs.

Others to Consider:

Sonny Gray (RHP) | DK: $9.5k, FD: $10.7k | @ STL

Gray is another top-level pitcher who is having an excellent season. He’s striking out 37.2% of hitters and boasting a 2.25 xFIP. The Cardinals may be a team to target moving forward, as they’re having to deal with an absolutely brutal restructured schedule due to their extended stretch of postponed games caused by the coronavirus outbreak within their roster. They’ve already played eight games in the last five days, so you do have to wonder if fatigue may start to become a factor for these guys.

Dinelson Lamet (RHP) | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.4k | vs. TEX

Lamet may go a bit overlooked today simply due to the other talent on the board around him, but he’s shown a very high ceiling this season along with a pretty solid floor. He’s racked up a 32.1% kRate and is allowing just a .223 wOBA to opposing hitters. The Rangers haven’t struck out a ton versus RHPs this season (20.9% kRate) but they haven’t gotten much moving on offense with just a .285 wOBA (4th lowest) and a 70 wRC+ (3rd lowest).

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s pretty tough to predict where the chalk will lean at the moment, but my guess is the Red Sox and Dodgers will be two of the higher owned stacks. Both teams are in great spots to succeed and are certainly worth stack consideration, but be mindful of the higher potential ownership.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Nathan Eovaldi (RHP), BOS

This game features one of the more favorable scoring environments today and is the only match-up on the slate that holds a double-digit implied run total. The Orioles offense has been a bit of a surprise this season and over the last two weeks, as a team, they’re hitting .277 (ranks 2nd in that time) alongside a .345 wOBA (7th) and 118 wRC+ (7th) while smacking 22 homers. Eovaldi does have a tendency to get shelled (1.98 HR/9) and he’s allowing a .306 AVG and .381 wOBA to batters this season.

Cleveland Indians vs. Trevor Williams (RHP), PIT

The Cleveland offense continues to heat up a bit after scoring 6.6 runs/game across their last five contests. As a team, they’ve hit nine home runs in that five game stretch while posting a .231 ISO and striking out just 18.4% of the time. Trevor Williams (5.02 xFIP this season) is a pretty ‘so-so’ starter and definitely not a pitcher I’d be terrified to stack against. Once he is off the mound, the Pirates bullpen will come into play. They have a poor 1.61 WHIP this season along with a 5.96 ERA and 4.73 xFIP -- all bottom eight numbers.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Los Angeles Angels vs. Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF

The Angels stack really isn’t ever crazy, considering the hitters they have, but many people may be off of them after they’ve struggled a fair amount the last couple games. While I did highlight Gausman above, I did mention that I am skeptical about whether or not he’s going to continue pitching as well as he has been. If you stack some LAA bats, you may have some decent leverage if Gausman ends up carrying moderately high ownership. The Angels could very well knock some regression into his pitching statistics tonight.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.4k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Asher Wojciechowski (RHP), BAL

First off, the $2.8k price tag on FanDuel for Devers is pretty absurd. I know he hasn’t had a fantastic season this year, but it seems he’s starting to heat up. Over the last week, he is batting .350 with a .397 wOBA and he’s coming off of a 3-for-4 night with a home run, double, and three RBI yesterday against Philly. Dating back to the start of 2019, Wojciechowski is allowing a .383 wOBA and .275 ISO to LHBs so we could see another multi-hit night from Devers with the possibility of a four-bagger mixed in.

1B/2B Wilmer Flores | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

Suarez will be making his 2020 debut and he’s coming off of a 2019 rookie campaign where, in many games, he turned into quite the gas can. Across 81.0 IP last season, Suarez attained a 7.11 ERA, 5.71 xFIP, and 1.64 WHIP while allowing 2.56 HR/9. Flores is having a strong season for the Giants. He’s batting .300 with a .352 wOBA, .205 ISO, and 124 wRC+. Against lefties, his numbers only get better and he’s creating 59.1% Hard Contact against them this season. Seems like a solid affordable guy to target tonight and the dual positional eligibility is always a plus on DraftKings.

OF Jesse Winker | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL

Adam Wainwright isn’t the easiest match-up on paper but I’m not sure it would matter if Nolan Ryan in his prime was on the mound tonight if Winker continues this tear that he’s been on. Since August 9th (seven games), Winker has taken 20 at-bats. In those 20 at-bats, he has 12 hits (.600 AVG) with an absurd .848 wOBA, 1.000 ISO, and SIX home runs. Now, obviously no baseball player in history is going to be able to keep up that pace. But if he continues to swing the hot bat, Winker is just way too cheap to not be considered (seriously, his salaries should be at least $1,000 more with the way he’s been playing).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B Wilmer Flores | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

I’m going to double down on Flores and throw him out as my home run call for all the reasons I mentioned above in the ‘one-off’ section. He just generates a ton of power versus lefties and, even though Oracle Park’s design mitigates most of the wind, he’ll have a little breeze at his back that could potentially help carry a fly ball a tiny bit further out in left field.

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