Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🏈 1st Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC East for the upcoming NFL DFS season!

🔊 8/20 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 7:12 Strasburg & the Nats

• 10:25 Sonny Gray vs. Padres

• 12:34 Nola in Boston

• 15:56 Spending for Bieber?

• 19:21 Brewers Bats

• 22:08 Angels @ Texas

• 25:43 Detroit @ Houston

• 27:14 D’backs Bats

• 31:29 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Another Tuesday, another massive 15-game slate. We’ve got a bevy of talent at the pitching position to choose from and, unlike yesterday, pitching is a bit more sensible across the board. There are plenty of potential stack options out there today and a total of 14 teams currently carry implied totals of five runs or higher. Will the Nats score 13+ runs for the fourth game in a row? Can Clayton Kershaw continue to turn back the clock? Is something insanely unexpected going to happen in one of those games? The answer to at least one of those question is almost certainly “yes.” Let’s dive in to this monster set of games!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook 🌩️

It doesn’t look like we’re in danger of seeing any washouts today but some possible late starts or delays could be in store. Games with potential to get a bit wet include: SD @ CIN, MIA @ ATL, KC @ BAL, and WSH @ PIT. Of those games, Cincinnati carries the highest risk for delay but the hope is that (if rains do make it there) they choose to go with a “late start and play clean” approach. Bats are likely safe in all of these games but pitching will carry a bit more risk.

Your best hitting conditions will be found in the following games: LAA @ TEX (~100 degrees + humid), MIL @ STL (warm/humid, winds blowing OTL ~7 mph), SF @ CHC (warm/humid, winds blowing OTC 10 mph), and CHW @ MIN (winds blowing OTR 10-12 mph). Give a little bump to bats in those games, particularly in Texas, obviously.

Pitchers to Consider

Sonny Gray (DK: $9.7k, FD: $10.4k) | RHP | vs. San Diego Padres

Reminder: Keep an eye on weather in Cincy as an in-game delay can’t be ruled out.

I recall our boy Greg Landry titling one of these recent newsletters “Is Sonny Gray Elite?” I think at this point, we have to answer that question with a resounding “yes.” Gray hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts (18 IP) while throwing 24 Ks. In his last nine starts dating back to June 28th, he’s scored below 21 DKFP/40 FDFP just once. In that time, Gray has a ridiculous 1.59 ERA (3.50 xFIP) with a 31.6% kRate, 0.90 WHIP, and an opponent .165 AVG/.234 wOBA. A great thing about Gray, especially for DFS purposes, is his strikeout rate that hovers just over 28% versus both sides of the plate. The Padres have been more ‘attack-able’ with righty pitchers all year. Even though they’ve added a couple more lefties to their lineup they’ve still been below average versus RHPs with a 90 wRC+ over the last month (ranks 20th) while still swinging and missing a ton with a high 27% kRate. Gray may not hit those extremely high ceiling games as much as someone like Shane Bieber does but for the nice floor, strong ceiling, and solid discount, I don’t mind taking the Reds ace as my go-to high dollar arm today.

Cole Hamels (DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.3k) | LHP | vs. San Francisco Giants

On a 15-game slate it can be a bit stressful to pinpoint three pitchers to highlight. I’m already seeing some people “hating” Hamels in the LineStar “love/hate” ratings so if that is any indication that he’ll be low-owned, I’ll gladly take some shares of him in tournaments at these discounted prices. Some hate is certainly warranted -- Hamels has been awful in three of his last four starts. The commonality with those poor games being that he was pitching on the road. If we can fall back on his season-long performance, Hamels averages 63.5% more fantasy points at home where he has a 2.35 ERA (3.74 xFIP), 26.9% kRate, 1.08 WHIP, and opponent .219 AVG/.273 wOBA -- very strong splits at Wrigley Field. The Giants have posted a very poor 76 wRC+ versus lefties on the road this year (ranks 28th) while striking out 24.4% of the time and hitting just .234. Obviously you can’t always rely on stats and averages in baseball to come to fruition but if Hamels can regain some form back at home where he is clearly more comfortable pitching, then these DFS salaries are going to easily get paid off. The Cubbies are also strong -200 favorites on the day as well.

Steven Matz (DK: $6.9k, FD: $8.2k) | LHP | vs. Cleveland Indians

Keeping the trend going of guys who flip a switch at home, Matz seems to turn into a borderline ace when stepping on the hill at Citi Field (and averages 92.3% more fantasy points). In nine starts at home this season, Matz is 5-0 and is rocking a 2.14 ERA (3.45 xFIP), 26.6% kRate, 1.12 WHIP, and an opponent .240 AVG/.282 wOBA. His home ERA is over four runs better than his 6.28 ERA on the road (5.06 xFIP). A large part of his success at Citi Field is the fact that he’s only allowed four home runs in 54.2 IP there (0.66 HR/9) as opposed to 16 home runs in 61.2 road innings (2.34 HR/9). He’s also just pitching better in general lately with four starts over his last five in which he has allowed two earned runs or less while giving up just one home run in that stretch alongside a 0.99 WHIP and 3.31 xFIP. The obvious catch here is the difficult match-up with Cleveland. The Indians are hitting .291 versus LHPs over the last month with a 111 wRC+ and just an 18.9% kRate. There are certainly "safer" value pitchers on the slate today so consider Matz a high risk/reward play.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Disclaimer: Once again, Arlington will feature the best hitting conditions and highest run total of the day. Consider the Angels and Rangers two of the premiere stack options of the day by default.

Atlanta Braves vs. Elieser Hernandez (RHP), Miami Marlins

Hernandez pitched a bit of a gem against Atlanta down in Miami a couple weeks ago (6 IP, 2 H, 2 BB, 0 ER, 7 K). I wouldn’t count on a repeat performance when he travels to SunTrust Park. It’s only a 20 inning sample size but Hernandez has a 7.20 ERA (5.91 xFIP) on the road this year where he has also allowed a .397 wOBA and eight home runs (3.60 HR/9). Backing the young Marlins righty will be a bullpen that has been awful lately. Over the last month, the Miami relievers have accounted for a 6.04 ERA (5.38 xFIP), 1.58 WHIP, and have been giving up a ton of home runs with a 2.82 HR/9. The Braves just battled through a tough three game series against the Dodgers and their elite pitching staff so this should be a breath of fresh air for their offense. The stud stack here would obviously be Ronald Acuna Jr., Freddie Freeman, and Josh Donaldson -- all have at least a 156 wRC+ versus RHPs in the last month. Matt Joyce could be a viable (and cheaper) secondary stack piece. I think Freddie Freeman busts out of his three game slump... he’ll go down and my home run call of the night. 💣

Chicago Cubs vs. Tyler Beede (RHP), San Francisco Giants

Beede has given up at least 4 ER in five straight starts -- one of those starts being against the Cubs back on July 24th where he allowed 10 H (3 HR) and 4 ER thru 5.2 innings. This isn’t an easy Cubs offense to figure out, and they’ve been anything but consistent lately, but Nicholas Castellanos, Anthony Rizzo, Ian Happ, and Kyle Schwarber have all shown some life against righty pitching lately. All four have at least a 130 wRC+ versus RHPs over the last month.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Sean Reid-Foley (RHP), Toronto Blue Jays

Reid-Foley has a respectable 3.00 ERA through 30 innings pitched this year but his 6.18 xFIP and 5.75 SIERA tells us that he is getting really lucky through the randomness that is baseball and that a major regression is due. Traveling to Dodger Stadium to face the fourth most prolific offense in the league may be the game where the tides really turn against SRF. Guys like Cody Bellinger and Max Muncy are almost always in play but other really viable, cheaper options include Will Smith, Justin Turner, and Matt Beaty. Love these guys for a “late-night hammer” stack.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Mike Trout (DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.9k) | OF | vs. Brock Burke (RHP)

It always feels like I’m just picking some low-hanging fruit when highlighting Trout as a one off to spend up on but oh well, don’t judge me! I’ll absolutely be getting some Trout exposure, as he’ll look to face a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut who only has eight innings of experience at the Triple-A level. Add on the fact that Globe Life Park has easily the best hitting conditions of the day and I’m sold. Trout has also destroyed the Rangers and their pitching staff this year. In 14 games (67 plate appearances) versus Texas, Trout is hitting .347 with a .556 wOBA, .592 ISO, 261 wRC+ alongside nine homers and 16 RBI. Not too shabby.

Gio Urshela (DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.6k) | 3B | vs. Homer Bailey (RHP)

I know these Yanks bats have cooled off a bit over the last few days, Homer Bailey is playing well for the A’s, and that Oakland Coliseum is a very pitcher-friendly ball park… but I’ll still happily take some shares of a discounted Urshela. Gio is hitting .438 over his last 20 games (84 plate appearances) with seven homers, 18 RBI, and a .892 wOBA+ISO. He’ll be batting clean-up (or third) for a Yankees team capable of posting double-digit runs against anyone in the league -- especially a low strikeout pitcher like Homer Bailey who is also allowing 44.6% Hard Contact this year. The sanctity of Oakland Coliseum might not be enough to protect him in this spot.

Tim Lopes (DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.6k) | OF | vs. Tampa Bay Rays

If Lopes bats first in the order once again, as he has done in the Mariners’ previous three games, then you just don’t often see a guy this cheap (especially on DraftKings) in a lead-off opportunity. There’s not much to break down here. You don’t need much from this guy to return value. As a recent rookie call up, Lopes has only played in 14 games this year and is hitting just .250 with a .326 OBP. Still, if he gets on base a time or two and throws a run or RBI in the mix, he has already hit value for you while allowing for pricier bats/pitchers to fit into your lineups. Lopes and the Mariners will face off with the Rays and their opener + relievers with LHP Jalen Beeks set to see the bulk of the innings. Not the stingiest set of pitchers to have to face.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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