Top MLB DFS Plays 8/2 | IMAGINE STACKING ______ TONIGHT!

August 02, 2021

Author: @ZeroInDenver on Twitter & LineStar Chat

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Ryan is off today, so your dude and DFS life coach is filling in for him. Just like each time before, I'm taking a different angle with the newsletter. Those that know me know that I'm a mass multi-entry (MME) tournament player. I'll have a few hundred lineups in play tonight. As much as I wish that I could just mash buttons and print money, that's not how MME works. I'll run various builds throughout the day and rank lineups based on summed projection and summed projected ownership.

If there's any of you that are looking to dip your toes in MME (or get better at it), let me offer 2 of my favorite tips:

  • To start, I run a few builds without any restrictions. In other words, I make sure I leave the player and team exposures at 100%. I want to see initially where projections and salary are taking me for the day. Who am I getting the most? Who am I not getting? (Is this due to salary or low projections)? Who does Vegas like? Keep in mind, I don't limit or restrict teams, but Vegas implied runs can give a good idea of who other people will be targeting.

  • Too many people worry about chalk, especially when playing multiple entries. Chalk is not the enemy, duplicate entries are. Overall, I want unique entries that will provide me a path to the top. I'll never hesitate to play "chalk" stacks because I can differentiate my lineups in 5 or 6 other spots.

Once I have a good idea of who the favorites are, I can look at underdogs where I can make my lineups unique and gain some leverage. One way to find these underdogs is to sort pitchers by "Loved" and "Hated" in the LineStar app. If I see a questionable pitcher that is getting a lot of "Loved" votes, that's an easy stack for me. Likewise, if I'm seeing a pitcher that is getting a lot of "Hated" votes, I want to make sure that this is a team that I run some stacks for.

I've mentioned this before in the chat, but it's easier to predict what other DFS players will do than what MLB players will do. I always try to connect some "favorite" stacks with some "underdog" stacks to help slingshot me to the top.

Keep all this in mind as you continue on in today's newsletter. I haven't looked at any stats, BvP, VMI, nor have I listened to any podcasts. If you want solid and intelligent advice on who to play based on that kind of thing, be sure to check out the LineStar On Deck podcast linked above.

If you want to see who I have so far, continue on.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

ZERO Weather Badges today: 2 stadiums with great weather. 5 stadiums with a roof.

Best hitting environment: BAL@NYY

Best pitching environment: NYM@MIA

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Anthony DeSclafani (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. ARI

I've got a lot of him so far and have mixed feelings on this. His last three starts haven't been great. To be fair, two of those starts were against the Dodgers. If you like the narrative that Arizona is a terrible team and he's ripe for a bounce-back, go with that. I like the "no way am I paying $9.3K for this garbage" narrative that I hope will keep his ownership down.

Dane Dunning (LHP) | DK: $6.3k, FD: $7.6k | vs. LAA

He's cheap on DraftKings and has decent projections. As expected, I'm getting a lot of him which leads me to believe a lot of DFS players will as well. However, I don't hate this. I can do a lot in my lineup at his price.

On FanDuel, I don't love it as much. I don't think he'll pitch deep enough to have the ceiling you need to take down a tourney. Still, you can do a lot in your lineup with him in the pitcher spot on FanDuel.

Tyler Megill (RHP) | DK: $9.6k, FD: $8.5k | @ MIA

Megill is number 3 for pitchers I have exposure to tonight. I wish he was $1000 cheaper on each site, but he's in a good spot tonight and has shown some decent consistency.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

Disclaimer: I will have lineups with stacks from all 14 teams tonight. Although I mentioned Megill, Dunning, and DeSclafani, don't get it twisted. I will have stacks of Marlins, Angels, and Diamondbacks in play.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

One thing that I look for stacks is the ability to get all players in a 5-man stack under the 7th batting position and no ragrets in going all in. For me, Narvaez, Tellez, Wong, Adames, and Garcia in 100% of my Brewers stacks makes me happy.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WSH

Josiah Gray was one of the Dodgers' top prospects sent over on the Scherzer trade and is making his debut for Washington tonight. He's given up 4 HRs in 8 innings pitched in the majors this season which makes him worthy of stacking the Phillies against him tonight.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Baltimore Orioles vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), NYY

Here's a fantasy pitcher that's always fun to stack against. It would only be fitting for him to get blown up in his debut for the Yankees tonight.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $6.2k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WSH

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

OF Mitch Haniger | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Wacha (RHP), TB

1B Anthony Rizzo | DK: $4.7k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jorge Lopez (LHP), BAL

2B Jean Segura | DK: $4.6k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Josiah Gray (RHP), WSH

C Max Stassi | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

SS Brandon Crawford | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/3B Rodolfo Castro | DK: $3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

OF LaMonte Wade | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), NYY

SS Thairo Estrada | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Taylor Widener (RHP), ARI

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

OF Tyrone Taylor | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

C  Jonah Heim | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.5k | vs. LAA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Rowdy Tellez | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Bryse Wilson (RHP), PIT

I don't overcomplicate these calls. Again, I sort in the app by "Daily Matchup", "Alerts", and Batter Statcast >> Hard Contact.

EZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

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