Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 8/2 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 7:14 Bats in Baltimore

• 12:10 Picking on Paxton

• 13:58 Clevinger & Indians Stack

• 15:30 All In on Gausman

• 18:05 Lance Lynn vs. Tigers

• 22:55 Nats Bats

• 24:54 Dustin May Debut

• 26:22 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Oh boy, buckle your seat belts because this evening’s action may get a bit hectic. Obviously, when it comes to baseball, oddsmakers are working on predicting one of the most unpredictable sports out there. However, they’ve gotten reasonably attuned to today’s game at this point and we can get a decent idea how a match-up will “more than likely” play out based off of Vegas’ outlook. I mention this because, of the twelve games on tap tonight, seven match-ups will carry run totals between 10 and 14 runs. There are also 13 individual teams with an implied total of at least five runs -- five of those teams are projected above six runs! Those are some extremely lofty numbers for baseball but, at the major league level, the sport is much different than it was even two or three years ago so it is far from unexpected. Pitchers will have their hands full tonight, no doubt. Let’s see if we can stuff our pockets with a little extra “fun money” as we roll into the weekend!

Friday match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook 🌩️

No single game stands out as a major trouble spot but there are a few areas where a passing shower or pop-up storm can’t be ruled out from rolling through and causing a potential delay/late start. Those games include: NYM @ PIT, TOR @ BAL, CHW @ PHI, and CIN @ ATL. Nothing overly concerning on the radar for now, but keep an eye on those game locations as we get closer to first pitch.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Mike Clevinger (DK: $11.1k, FD: $10.7k) | RHP | CLE vs. LAA

The top tier for pitching tonight is a pretty clear-cut trio of arms that includes Mike Clevinger, Robbie Ray, and Lance Lynn. You can make a case for all of them but I’m going to lean Clevinger and it’s pretty obvious why -- he has the highest strikeout upside on the slate. He has been injured for a good portion of the year, but by now I’d say nine starts and 49.1 innings pitched is a large enough sample size for us to get an idea of where his game is at in 2019. His 37.5% kRate is clearly due to drop a bit but, as it stands, that is the highest strikeout rate among MLB starting pitchers (min. 40 IP) and his 16.2% Swinging Strike Rate trails only Max Scherzer and Blake Snell. This will be Clevinger’s fifth start at home this season and his number thus far through 23 innings at Progressive Field are pretty nutty. He’s only given up two runs (0.78 ERA) while amassing 40 strikeouts (46.5% kRate) with a 0.83 WHIP while allowing a .152 AVG/.206 wOBA. Unsustainable? Yes. But impressive nonetheless. Opponent-wise, the Angels clearly aren’t the best match-up. However, over the last month, they’ve been pretty average against RHPs: .244 AVG (19th), .320 wOBA (18th), .212 ISO (7th), and they have a 102 wRC+ (13th) while striking out a decently high 23.3% of the time. No surprise to see a strong ISO when guys like Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, and Kole Calhoun are in the order. But, all things considered, Clevinger should have a strong path to ace-level results today. Cleveland is a heavy -220 favorite and the Angels have a low four run implied total.

Wade Miley (DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.5k) | LHP | HOU vs. SEA

If you’re not in the mood to pay all the way up at pitcher but still would like a relatively safe investment, then Miley stands out as a leading candidate to fill that role. He’s been stout at home this year, working himself to a 4-1 record in nine starts while posting a 1.92 ERA, 3.66 xFIP, 0.96 WHIP, 23.8% kRate and allowing a .192 AVG/.246 wOBA. The Mariners have been pretty dangerous against southpaws lately -- over the last month they’re posting a .286 AVG (6th), .335 wOBA (11th), and a 114 wRC+ (9th). However, they’re not generating much power with a .161 ISO (26th) and the major draw is their tendency to strikeout against LHPs, as they have a lofty 29.3% kRate in that time frame. Considering Miley has a pretty weak counterpart in Yusei Kikuchi, expect him to receive plenty of run support to help him vie for the win. Miley and the Astros are the largest favorites of the day as they carry a -280 moneyline. Really liking him for cash game builds.

Dustin May (DK: $7.6k, FD: $5.8k) | RHP | LAD vs. SD

The Dodgers are set to give their top pitching prospect his first major league start tonight against the Padres. I’m not typically a fan of rolling out a rookie pitcher making his debut, especially for a Dave Roberts managed team where you have to kinda worry about pitch count limitations, but this slate doesn’t exactly offer very much stand out value among pitchers. May has impressed this year at the Triple-A level across his five starts (27.1 IP) garnering a 3-0 record while maintaining a 2.30 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21.1% kRate, and a .210 opponent batting average while allowing no home runs. His 4.82 xFIP and .276 BABIP is somewhat concerning and indicate that those aforementioned numbers aren’t quite as shiny as they seem. But, against the Padres, I’ll take a shot on him. San Diego is hitting just .236 against RHPs over the last month with a 25.8% kRate and 90 wRC+. I’d be surprised if we see May pitch much further than the fifth inning in his MLB debut, especially considering he averaged only about 5.1 IP in his 20 starts at the Triple-A and Double-A levels this year. But that could be enough work for him to return value if all goes well during those first few frames. His FanDuel price is really generous and he’d most definitely be my guy in “big bat” GPP lineup builds.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field Note: As usual, neither the Rockies (7.3 implied runs) or Giants (6.7 implied runs) will receive a mention in this section but they are both leading team stacks to consider by default.

Houston Astros vs. Yusei Kikuchi (LHP), SEA

Kikuchi is a low strikeout southpaw pitcher (16.6% kRate) that is generous to both sides of the plate, allowing a .385 wOBA/.281 ISO to LHBs and a .366 wOBA/.225 ISO to RHBs. He also allows plenty of dingers, as his 1.89 HR/9 is among the highest marks among starting pitchers today. This is all bad news when facing an Astros team that leads the MLB with a 141 wRC+ against LHPs over the last month. With the exception of perhaps Josh Reddick, I think you could piece together anyone from this entire lineup. They’re expensive bats for sure, but could be a a nice pivot off of Coors chalk.

Arizona Diamondbacks (LHBs preferred) vs. Joe Ross (RHP), WAS

I can only really imagine things going poorly for Joe Ross today. In 19 appearances this year (24.2 innings), he has struggled to a 9.85 ERA, 5.41 xFIP, 2.11 WHIP, and .355 opponent average. Since he hasn’t pitched very much in 2019, looking at a broader range, he has faced 274 lefty hitters on the road in his career. Against them, he is allowing a .335 AVG/.411 wOBA, 1.97 WHIP, and 1.95 HR/9 on 40.3% Hard Contact while striking out just 17.9% of batters. I’m not positive he will pitch too deep into this game but, for the innings he is in, I’ll be happy to take some shares of Ketel Marte, David Peralta, and (in hopes of him busting out his slump) Eduardo Escobar. If you target any righty bats, Christian Walker has pretty extreme reverse splits and tends to crush weak RHPs.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP) + Crumby Bullpen, BAL

Brooks’ last four starts have not gone great, to say the least. As a result, we could see quite a bit of that awful Baltimore bullpen this evening. In those previous four starts, Brooks has only lasted 14 innings total, on his way to a 7.07 ERA, 5.61 xFIP, and 1.57 WHIP while allowing a .316 AVG and throwing just 14.1% strikeouts. This young Toronto core is also really trending in the right direction. If you want to stack their big three young guns, Vlad Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, and Cavan Biggio, I wouldn’t hate it in the least. I also wouldn’t rule Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Justin Smoak, or Danny Jansen out of consideration. Hell, really this is another team where just about anyone in the lineup could be in play. Toronto has sneakily been a top 10 offense over the last two weeks (112 wRC+, ranks 9th) and this is a prime spot for them to continue knocking a load of runs up onto the scoreboard.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Max Kepler (DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.4k) | OF | vs. RHP Glenn Sparkman

Man, talk about a lead-off bat with some power! Kepler has been raking lately. Since July 21st (11 games), Kepler is hitting .302 with a .498 wOBA and .558 ISO on 50% Hard Contact with seven homers and 14 RBI while striking out just 9.8% of the time. He’s even getting decidedly ‘unlucky’ with a .194 BABIP during that stretch. Sparkman permits plenty of production to lefties, allowing a .278 AVG, .390 wOBA, and .311 ISO on 46.1% Hard Contact and 44.1% Fly Balls. His splits against LHBs get much worse when he’s on the road. In just 10 at bats, Kepler already has one home run off of Sparkman -- I’ll say he gets another one this evening as my home run call of the night! 💣

Ozzie Albies (DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.4k) | 2B | vs. LHP Alex Wood

Not only is Albies a much better hitter at home but he is an elite hitter against southpaws. Check off both of those boxes today. Albies has a .446 AVG, .493 wOBA, .321 ISO, and 208 wRC+ when facing off with a LHP in SunTrust Park this year. Alex Wood is a quality pitcher but he should still have a bit of rust to shake off as he prepares to make just his second start of the season and it won’t be an easy task. He has traditional splits across his career so he will have more trouble when facing up against righties. Albies is a crafty batter who doesn’t strike out much (14.3% vs. LHP) and he can often return value via multi-base hit games, runs, RBI, and stolen bases without necessarily relying on a home run. He’ll likely slot in at second in the order once again in between two elite hitters in Ronald Acuna Jr. and Freddie Freeman. If Atlanta has a big game tonight, I’d expect Albies to be a primary contributor.

Joe Panik (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k) | 2B | vs. RHP Peter Lambert

You don’t often see a Coors bat this cheap and Panik hasn’t been awful so he deserves a reasonable amount of consideration here. Panik has played very well in six games at Coors Field this season where he is 10-for-23 (.435 AVG) with four runs scored, five RBI, a stolen base, and zero strikeouts. When pitching at home, Peter Lambert allows LHBs to hit .340 with a .433 wOBA on 45% Hard Contact. If this game turns into a home run derby, don’t expect Panik to be involved. Even Coors Field can’t boost Panik’s meager .082 ISO all that much. But for these prices, a couple potential base hits/runs/RBI is very manageable and would return strong value.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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