Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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With a third of the league’s teams getting a day off and Thursdays being a popular ‘split slate’ day of the week, there will be only four games that land on this evening’s main slate. So, like this slate, I’ll keep everything short and sweet today. I typically play these <5 game slates pretty lightly myself, but I know some people prefer these over larger 10+ game slates. To each their own! Somebody has to bink all the money tonight -- hopefully, it’s some of you guys from the LineStar familia!

Also, for any NFL fanatics who are interested in running some best ball drafts this season, this is the right time to get into it! The LineStar Best Ball Preview & Strategy Guide was sent out yesterday -- feel free to give it a read and DM me on Twitter your best ball teams for a no holds barred honest review!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Nothing to really worry about on this four game slate at the moment. There’s a low-end chance of some rain in the MIA @ CIN game, but nothing that would keep them from playing nine innings.

Best hitting environments: MIN @ NYY, MIA @ CIN

Best pitching environments: NYM @ LAD

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ STL

Woodruff is pretty easily the most appealing pitcher to spend up on today. He did get pulled after 3.0 IP and 74 pitches in his last start (@ CHC), but that was likely due to the fact that he was pitching on four days rest. Also, despite allowing zero runs on two hits during those three innings, it seemed as if he wasn’t throwing his best stuff. Now, following a full week’s worth of rest, we should expect Woodruff to handle his typical ~100 pitch workload today. His season long numbers are streets ahead of every other pitcher today -- 2.18 ERA, 3.04 xFIP, 0.90 WHIP, 29.9% kRate, and he does an excellent job at limiting hard contact (31% HardHit%). The Cardinals are a highly mediocre offense and, while they may not strike out a ton versus RHPs, Woodruff had no problems racking up 10 Ks when he faced them earlier in the year back on May 12th.

Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN | DK: $8.5k, FD: $9.7k | vs. MIA

Castillo is the only other priced up pitcher on this slate and is the clear-cut pivot off of Woodruff. Castillo has a very turbulent start to this 2021 season but around the beginning of June was when he began to dial things in. Since June 4th (14 Games, 85.1 IP), Castillo has posted a 2.85 ERA, 3.54 xFIP, 1.18 WHIP, 25.7% kRate with opponents hitting .211 with a .281 wOBA against him in that span. Aside from that major meltdown on the mound at Cleveland ten days ago, he has scored no fewer than 15 DKFP/29 FDFP during that 14 game stretch. Miami can be pesky at the plate at times, but they offer up plenty of strikeouts to opposing pitchers and have struck out 26.3% of the time against RHPs over the last two weeks. It’s a smaller sample size of just 39 plate appearances, but Castillo has posted a 30.8% kRate versus this current Marlins roster, which will possess a slate-low 3.4 implied run total today. The Reds will also currently check in as the heaviest favorites on the slate (-260).

Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY | DK: $6.3k, FD: $8.7k | vs. MIN

At the $6,300 price tag on DraftKings, they’re just begging for >60% ownership to fall on Taillon as the go-to SP2 option today. FanDuel’s $8,700 pricing on Taillon is more realistic, but there may not be much meat left on the bone at that price -- still a worthy tournament play. The Twins aren’t pushovers, but they aren’t the most formidable opponent either. Their 99 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks basically puts them smack dab in the middle of the league (ranks 15th) and they’re striking out a decent amount in that span (23.4%) while hitting for a low .229 AVG. Taillon also scores 33.3% more fantasy points at home and that is supported by his home/away splits this season:

Home: 64.1 IP, 3.22 ERA, 4.42 xFIP, 1.09 WHIP, 24.8% kRate, .218 AVG, .298 wOBA

Away: 53.2 IP, 4.70 ERA, 4.80 xFIP, 1.38 WHIP, 21.9% kRate, .273 AVG, .330 wOBA

The Yankees are in a great spot today and will check in as -250 favorites. Taillon, more often than not, will be good for a 90+ pitch workload and hasn’t pitched fewer than five full innings in any start over the last two months. Things would have to go very wrong for him not to be a strong play on DraftKings, and there is some 40+ FP upside on FanDuel as well.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

The Milwaukee Brewers and the New York Yankees are the two stand out stacks to target today. The Brewers have not been particularly great against lefties… but Jon Lester is no longer a particularly great lefty. The Yankees will be looking to take on John Gant plus a bunch of bullpen arms. The Twins bullpen is not bad by any means, but there should still be some advantageous match-ups for these Yankee bats and they’ve been rolling ever since the return from the All-Star Break.

Secondary Stacks

Cincinnati Reds vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

Overall, Thompson has pitched pretty well for the Marlins during this, his rookie, season. He’s done well enough for himself to land at a 2.91 ERA on the year across his 52.2 IP. However, things have not gone so well when he has pitched on the road away from the pitcher-friendly Marlins Park. It is a small sample size, but in five road starts (21 IP), Thompson holds an 0-3 record and has landed at a 3.86 ERA, 5.20 xFIP, with a 4.71 BB/9 Rate. The Reds have managed only two combined runs in their last two games, but they’re often going to be a pretty solid offense, particularly when they’re at home at Great American Ballpark. GABP checks in as the #3 most hitter-friendly park and Cincinnati has averaged 5.54 runs/gm at home this season. They also lead the MLB with a.379 wOBA vs. RHPs over the last two weeks.

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

Walker has been a pretty solid pitcher at times throughout his career, but things have gone way, way wrong for him lately. In his previous six starts going back to July 18th, Walker has posted an awful 7.81 ERA, 5.74 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, 16.8% kRate while allowing a .288 AVG, .417 wOBA, and 3.60 HR/9 (!!!). The Dodgers have been doing Dodger things and have continued to wreck right-handed pitching. They have a .364 wOBA and 134 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks along with a sizable .246 ISO. They have been giving their veteran starters some rest over their last few games, but whatever lineup they roll out will contain some appealing stack options.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Minnesota Twins vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

The Twins could be worth a look as a leverage stack against a chalky (on DK, at least) Jameson Taillon. On the season, Taillon has acquired a far from impressive 4.61 xFIP and he leads all pitchers today with a 46.4% Fly Ball Rate and 40.8% HardHit%. It’ll be fairly warm in Yankee Stadium today (80+ degrees) and winds are scheduled to be blowing out to center field at around 10 mph. As a result, a few of these Twins bats will have some home run potential when they step into the batter’s box against Taillon, particularly the left-handed hitters, as he has allowed 1.73 HR/9 to LHBs.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Taijuan Walker (RHP), NYM

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. John Gant (RHP), MIN

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5k, FD: $4k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

OF Avisail Garcia | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), STL

2B Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. John Gant (RHP), MIN

OF Michael Conforto | DK: $3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. LAD Bullpen

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jameson Taillon (RHP), NYY

OF Tyler Naquin | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Zach Thompson (RHP), MIA

2B/3B Isan Diaz | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Luis Castillo (RHP), CIN

2B/SS Andrew Velazquez | DK: $2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. John Gant (RHP), MIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

SS Willy Adames | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Jon Lester (LHP), STL

Here’s to hoping the gas can version of Jon Lester shows up to the park today. He has been very poor against RHBs this season, allowing a .325 AVG, 1.82 WHIP, .400 wOBA, and .210 ISO along with 1.85 HR/9. Adames has been on a nice run lately, hitting .317 over his last 20 games with a .417 wOBA, .293 ISO, and six HRs. He has also accrued a strong .241 ISO vs. LHPs along with a 43.8% Hard Contact Rate. He homered out of Busch Stadium yesterday, so let’s see if he can go back-to-back!

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Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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