Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🏈 1st Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC East for the upcoming NFL DFS season!

🔊 8/19 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 7:45 KC @ O’s

• 9:23 Nats Bats

• 11:02 Bauer vs. Padres

• 15:07 Dakota Hudson vs. Brewers

• 17:14 Angels Bats

• 18:42 Miley & Astros Bats

• 20:17 White Sox @ Twins

• 23:32 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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We’ll kick off our Monday evening with nine games worth of MLB action. I hope you all had a fun and profitable weekend. After giving this slate a first look on both sites, the thing that immediately stood out were the significant price discrepancies between DraftKings and FanDuel. DK is not making things easy by pricing out the upside on virtually half of the pitchers and some of the batter salaries are a bit absurd as well. Not that this is a new thing this season but today that DK pricing algorithm seems to have gone especially psycho. No matter! Everyone is dealt the same hand so we just have to stake our research and strategies versus theirs. Let’s get into today’s breakdown!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook 🌩️

There are no significant postponement threats on this slate, as skies should remain pretty clear. Our best hitting weather is (unsurprisingly) going to be found in Texas where temps should hover in the 100 degree range with plenty of humidity. Baltimore will see some humid 90+ degree conditions as well. With double digit totals in each of those games, getting some exposure to hitters in those ballparks makes plenty of sense.

Pitchers to Consider

Zac Gallen (DK: $9.3k, FD: $8k) | RHP | vs. Colorado

Here is a higher end pitcher that has at least a somewhat reasonable DK salary. Gallen hasn’t surrendered more than three earned runs in any of his nine starts on the year, resulting in a slate-leading 2.58 ERA (4.52 SIERA). He brings some strikeout upside to the table as well, with a 27.4% kRate which is just a hair away from Trevor Bauer’s 27.6% kRate, which tops all starters today. Colorado leaves the sanctity of Coors Field today -- their 4.23 runs/game on the road ranks them ahead of all but two other MLB offenses (Detroit and Miami, yikes). As long as Gallen can hold the trio of Blackmon, Story, and Arenado in check, I can’t imagine he’ll have much trouble with the rest of this order. He’ll be a solid floor + upside option by the standards of this slate.

Brendan McKay (DK: $7.5k, FD: $7.5k) | LHP | vs. Seattle

Actually some decent prices across the board here for McKay! There is a bit of risk involved since McKay hasn’t exactly pitched deep into games. He’s managed to pitch six full innings just once in seven appearances. The strikeout upside is there though, as he matches Gallen with a 27.4% kRate. Seattle offers up some promising punchout potential with their 25.5% kRate over the last month versus LHPs. As long as McKay can find himself in the lead and get in five innings of work, he should find himself in line for the win as the Rays enter as strong -200 favorites. Tropicana Field is a pitcher-friendly environment and Seattle will carry an implied total of just 3.8 runs.

John Means (DK: $6.4k, FD: $6.2k) | LHP | vs. Kansas City

Getting beat up a couple times by the Yankees has dropped Means’ prices enough to where he has some appeal as a GPP punt today. As mentioned above, the weather in Baltimore isn’t going to be very pitcher-friendly but Kansas City has been pretty awful against lefty pitching lately, so it may not matter. In the last month versus LHPs, the Royals are hitting just .211 (ranks 30th) with an 81 wRC+ (ranks 29th) while striking out 22.4% of the time. Means has better home splits where he has posted a strong 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP. His 5.31 xFIP at home gives me some concern but for the prices and the potential that Kansas City may continue to struggle versus lefties, I’ll take some chances with Means tonight.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Globe Life Park Disclaimer: With the highest run total of the day residing in Texas in an excellent hitters park, you can assume that the Angels and Rangers represent two of the top stack options. Neither team will be detailed in the section.

Houston Astros vs. Edwin Jackson (RHP), Detroit

Oh boy, Edwin Jackson’s brief stretch of success could come to an abrupt end tonight. Over the last month versus RHPs, Houston ranks first in baseball with a 137 wRC+ and .258 team ISO while smashing 45 home runs. They’ve also only struck out just 18.4% of the time versus righties in that span. Jackson has absolutely atrocious reverse splits this season. RHBs are hitting .396 against him with a .527 wOBA and .429 ISO with 4.74 HR/9. He’s not exactly dominant versus lefties either (.269 AVG, .390 wOBA, .308 ISO) and he gives up about 43% Hard Contact to both sides of the plate. Just about anyone in this lineup is in play, save for perhaps Josh Reddick. Stack away! Taking a bit of a layup here but Alex Bregman will be my home run call of the night! 💣

Baltimore Orioles vs. Jorge Lopez (RHP), Kansas City

Expectations probably aren’t going to be too high for Jorge Lopez today. The Royals righty brings his 6.51 ERA to Baltimore where hot and humid conditions are primed for hitters to knock around some runs. The Orioles have been sneaky solid on offense lately, particularly versus right-handed pitching. Versus righties in the last month, Baltimore ranks 12th with a 102 wRC+. Lopez has significant splits and struggles mostly with lefties (.347 AVG, .431 wOBA, .257 ISO) so if you want to get a platoon stack going, that may not be a terrible idea. Really though, taking the O’s towards the top of the order who are consistently hitting well lately would be the direction I’d lean. Jonathan Villar, Trey Mancini, and Renato Nunez are the preferred options for me. Anthony Santander has just one hit in his last 18 ABs but is worth a look as a home run threat as well.

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez (RHP), Colorado

Through his 24.2 innings pitched this year, Gonzalez holds a 0-4 record with a 6.57 ERA, 5.93 SIERA, 1.78 WHIP and has allowed 2.19 HR/9 on 42.4% Hard Contact… not good! To top it all off, he is only throwing 13.8% strikeouts with a 12.1% Walk Rate. Eduardo Escobar, Wilmer Flores, and Nick Ahmed are all solid stack options here. Also, obviously you can throw some consideration towards Ketel Marte if he returns to the lineup tonight after dealing with a back issue.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Aristides Aquino (DK: $5k, FD: $4.5k) | OF | vs. LHP Eric Lauer

The cheap prices were nice while they lasted but as they say, “all good things must come to an end.” Still, Aquino has proven that he’s worth every penny of whatever DFS salary he is given. We’ll see what he can do tonight as he prepares to face off with a lefty in Eric Lauer. It’s obviously a minuscule sample size but against LHPs Aquino is 8-for-14 (.571) with three homers, eight RBI, and has a 63.6% Hard Contact Rate and a 1.472 wOBA+ISO. Those numbers will obviously normalize and come back down into this solar system some time but for now, I think you have to keep taking some shots on him until he goes on an extended cold streak.

Mike Moustakas (DK: $4k, FD: $3.6k) | 2B/3B | vs. RHP Dakota Hudson

Hopefully this isn’t point chasing here and we can actually get another night of a productive, discounted Moose who has six hits (three homers) in his last two games. Moustakas is blasting baseballs with an average exit velocity of 95 mph (top 90%) vs. RHPs over the last two weeks. He’s been a pretty neutral splits hitter this season but he does generate a bit more power against righties with a 44.9% Hard Contact Rate. Versus lefty bats, Dakota Hudson has a 5.23 xFIP and gives up a .308 AVG, .404 wOBA, .225 ISO, 1.75 HR/9, and 46% Hard Contact. Moustakas also has a pair of home runs off of Hudson in just seven plate appearances. Everything lines up pretty nicely here for Moose to potentially launch another moonshot tonight.

Josh Naylor (DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.7k) | OF | vs. RHP Trevor Bauer

Attacking the slate’s top arm never seems like a great idea. However, Bauer is a pretty average pitcher when it comes to facing off with lefties. Against LHBs, Bauer has a 5.07 xFIP while allowing a .248 AVG, .355 wOBA, .228 ISO, 1.94 HR/9 on 40.1% Hard Contact and 41.2% Fly Balls. In Naylor’s last 39 plate appearances against righties, he is hitting .303 with four home runs and a .930 wOBA+ISO. Of these Padres, Manny Machado may be the only one to catch some decent ownership (due to his dominant BvP) but I like Naylor’s potential to pay off nicely and come in under 5% owned.

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