Top MLB DFS Plays 8/19 | Midweek Mania

August 19, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Wednesday’s 11-game main slate will feature a pair of top aces in Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole. You can also make a case for about a half dozen ‘tier two’ pitchers and there are certainly some high-risk, high-reward value options as well. Coors Field is back on the menu as well, as the Astros travel to Denver to meet up with the Rockies. In total, there are nine teams that currently carry a 4.8 implied run total or greater. At first glance, this slate seemed fairly unappealing, but digging more into it I’m excited for quite a few of these games and offensive/pitching match-ups. Not to puff my chest out too much, but I feel like yesterday’s newsletter was a pretty spicy one so let’s see if we can repeat the process and strike some gold again!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

ARI @ OAK: Via @KevinRothWx, nearby wildfires and smoke in the Bay Area could bring some air quality and/or safety risk into play. Just something to keep in mind.

LAA @ SFG: Same deal as in Oakland with the nearby wildfires/smoke. Also, 10 mph winds blowing out to center-left.

WAS @ ATL: It's Atlanta, so as is often the case there is the typical low- end pop-up storm risk.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Aaron Civale (RHP) | DK: $9.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ PIT

Both of the top aces (deGrom & Cole) are clearly in play -- deGrom likely being the better cash game option. So let’s put our focus on another fairly elite arm in Civale. It seems like a lot of people got burned a bit by Carlos Carrasco pitching against this same Pirates team yesterday, so maybe that’s why I’m seeing some early ‘hate’ ratings on LineStar for Civale. To be fair, Civale also wasn’t all that spectacular in his last game either against Detroit where he gave up four earned runs on eight hits and recorded just three strikeouts and 10.1 DKFP/21 FDFP. Still, I believe Civale should have a decent bounce back performance tonight. Through four starts and 25.0 IP, Civale has a strong 3.23 xFIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 25.7% kRate. Against RHPs, Pittsburgh still ranks dead last in the MLB with a 53 wRC+ and .247 wOBA while striking out 24.7% of the time. Only three other teams have better odds to win today (CLE -180) and Civale has thrown at least 96 pitches across 6+ innings in every start on the season. I believe a lot of people are going to gravitate toward Lance Lynn in this price range, and besides the tricky San Diego match-up, I can’t really argue against him -- he’s been terrific this year. But Civale is absolutely worth a shot in this ‘tier two’ level of pitchers.

Pablo Lopez (RHP) | DK: $7.2k, FD: $8.3k | vs. NYM

Lopez may fall more on the riskier side of things today but, for these relatively affordable salaries, I believe he’s at least pitched well enough this season to earn some consideration. Lopez’s 2.74 xFIP is the best mark on the slate among today’s starters and he’s striking out a lofty 28.4% of hitters. He has also been racking up these numbers against stiff competition. He’s pitched against the Orioles, Mets, and Braves this season -- all three teams which rank 11th or better in both team wOBA and wRC+ against RHPs. Lopez’s least productive start obviously came against this same Mets team, and they are absolutely a scary offense to face, but I also wouldn’t say that allowing two earned runs across five innings is an absolutely atrocious outing. Lopez will lose some win equity considering his counterpart in Jacob deGrom, but it’s also worth noting that, in general, Lopez was much better when pitching in Marlins Park last year. His ERA at home (3.39) was nearly four runs better than his road ERA (7.36) and he averages 46.4% more fantasy points when pitching at home. There are many ways this backfires, but if you’re willing to accept some risk, Lopez has plenty of upside and could be a strong fantasy point per dollar play.

Others to Consider:

Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $8.3k, FD: $7.8k | @ COL -- Unless we’re talking about a top five ace, not many people are going to roll the dice on a Coors Field pitcher but we’ve already seen several pitchers have success in the Rockies this season. Valdez has sported a very strong 3.00 xFIP this season and, perhaps more importantly, he’s only allowing 19% Fly Balls. Baseballs can’t fly over the wall if hitters can’t get under them! Valdez is interesting for a contrarian GPP option.

Chris Paddack (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $8.1k | vs. TEX -- Paddack’s kRate is down a bit this year but, eventually, I’d expect it to get back near the 26.9% kRate he sported in 2019 (currently at 21.1% in ‘20). While he has posted a decent fantasy performance in 4-of-5 starts this year, his main issue is giving up the deep ball (seven this season, 2.45 HR/9). The good news is he is at home tonight, where he tends to pitch better, and the Rangers have just a .124 team ISO versus RHPs this season -- the third lowest figure in baseball.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: It’s a Coors slate, so the Rockies and especially the Astros are likely to be two high-owned stacks. Despite a sluggish offensive performance last night, I also wouldn’t be surprised to see plenty of people back on the Dodgers as well. The Nationals also could also end up being pretty chalky by the time lineup lock rolls around. Of course, all four of these teams are in play… just be aware of the higher potential ownership.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

Cueto has actually been able to stay in games a bit better than I thought he would this season, and he’s had some difficult to match-ups to boot. However, his 5.58 xFIP is still the second worst among today’s starters and he’s only striking out 17.9% of hitters -- a number that could drop against an Angels team that doesn’t strike out very much. Cueto will also be backed up by, perhaps, the worst bullpen in the Majors right now. The Giants relievers have a league-worst 5.84 xFIP alongside a 1.52 WHIP and are giving up 2.09 HR/9. Over the last two weeks, the Angels .220 ISO ranks 5th in baseball so, despite Oracle Park not being an ideal hitter’s park, we could see a few Angels go yard tonight.

Cleveland Indians vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

After averaging the fourth lowest runs per game on the season (3.87), these Cleveland bats are finally starting to show some life. In their last four games, they’re averaging 6.75 runs per game. I’d still wait to see if they string together more long term success before I going too heavy on them but they’ll get matched up with a fairly average starting pitcher in lefty Steven Brault, who has only pitched seven innings this season. Once Brault is retired, Cleveland will see a Pirates bullpen whose 1.57 WHIP is the second-highest in the MLB.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY

This contrarian Rays stack kinda worked out yesterday if you hit on the right guys, so I’ll roll the dice here again, albeit with considerably less faith. Cole is obviously one of the best pitchers in baseball but no one is ever “blow up proof” in this volatile sport. The Rays’ .358 wOBA versus RHPs over the last two weeks ranks 4th in the league and they’re sporting a .215 ISO in that span as well (ranks 6th). Even if you just take two or three of the primary power hitters in this Rays lineup, you’ll have perhaps a <5% owned stack.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

How can we get off of the Anderson train now after he has knocked four home runs out the park in the last week and will now face off with a rookie pitcher making his MLB debut? Mize is obviously a highly regarded prospect and was the No. 1 overall pick in 2018, but he started just 26 games in the minor leagues -- none of those starts came above the AA level. He posted pretty strong, but not spectacular, numbers in that time. Mize could also have a very short leash when it comes to pitch count today so we could see Detroit roll out their bullpen for the majority of this one. Over his last 30 plate appearances, Anderson is hitting .429 with a .579 wOBA and .536 ISO while creating a massive 79.2% Hard Contact Rate in that time. It’s hard not to love him again today.

1B/2B Tommy La Stella | DK: $3.8k, FD: $2.3k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF

La Stella is an excellent and affordable option tonight, especially in cash lineup builds, as he has posted just two goose eggs in 19 starts this year and he’s typically going to do more for you than simply get a single hit or a walk/RBI. He’s been particularly effective over the last couple of weeks and since August 6th (12 games, 45 at-bats), La Stella has hit .333 with a .408 wOBA, .289 ISO, and three home runs. In that time, he has also struck out just three times which equates to a 6.1% kRate. You can scroll up to the Angels write-up in the stack section to see why I’m on board with LAA hitters against Cueto & Co. tonight. But La Stella likely will bat second and will have hitters like Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shoehei Ohtani, and David Fletcher surrounding him in the order. Maybe he doesn’t have a monstrous night or anything, but you have to love the floor he possesses.

OF Adam Eaton | DK: $3k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Kyle Wright (RHP), ATL

Eaton is highly affordable, he should be hitting second in the order, and he faces off against arguably the worst starting pitcher today in Kyle Wright. Eaton is a lefty hitter and out of the 91 LHBs Wright has faced in his career, he has allowed a .347 AVG, .455 wOBA, 2.38 WHIP, and 2.04 HR/9. Eaton has been a .302 hitter versus RHPs over his last 20 games and he should be able to post up a solid fantasy day in this spot even if he only gets a couple ABs against Wright. If he just gets a couple hits and an RBI and/or run, I think you’re getting nice value in that scenario and he’ll allow you to pay up for more power bats (like teammate Juan Soto???).

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Brett Anderson (LHP), MIL

Hot damn, thanks to Mookie and Grichuk, I’m 2-for-2 on the home run calls this week so here’s to keeping the streak rolling. In 23 career at-bats against Brett Anderson, Cruz is only hitting .174 but all four of those hits have been dingers. Cruz typically crushes lefties and has a .994 wOBA+ISO against them over his last 150 games alongside 20 HRs. He’s hitting a home run versus lefties in basically 12% of his plate appearances. After slugging four out of the park in the last week, you have to believe there’s a decent chance he keeps swinging the hot bat. I believe the last time I went with Cruz for my HR call he went dinger-less, but did hit three HRs over his next two games. Hopefully he's on time today.

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