Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

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Last night was perfect for the DraftKings Live Final. The Giants, Twins, Rockies, Brewers, and Nationals all put up double-digit runs which made for a really exciting slate. The 14 inning slug fest between the Nationals and Brewers lasted five hours and 40 minutes and had a total of 29 runs, 38 hits, 19 pitchers used, several multi-run leads blown, and each closer blowing a lead in the ninth. It was an important victory for the Brewers as they moved within a game of the Cubs and Cardinals for both the NL Central division title and the NL Wild Card. That NL Central is going to come down to the wire again this season.

There's a handful of solid arms in the top pricing tier today but after that you're more or less going bargain hunting (dumpster diving?) and hoping it works out. There's nobody after Jack Flaherty that I have any confidence in. Gonsolin is being called up for a start today. He's got a cannon but limited Major League experience and a tough draw against the Braves. Fried has been outstanding this season but he gets it done more with run prevention than with strikeout upside and run prevention may be difficult to come by against the best offense in baseball. "Nasty Nate" Eovaldi is back and has a mouth watering match up against the Orioles but it's his first start off the IL and he's not expected to go past 60 pitches given him very little chances to pay off his hefty price tag. Like I said, there's quite a bit of uncertainty out there today. On the plus side, volatile pitching often leads to big offensive days and there are plenty of bats to talk about. Here's a look at the Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook

It's hot out there today but it's consistent throughout most of the games playing outdoors so there's not really an advantage for us to exploit. The coolest outdoor game today will be 84 degrees (in Kansas City) and we also have several games that will be over 90 degrees. Similar to last night, there should be a lot of offense today. We have no rain in the forecast as of now.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Matthew Boyd, DET | DK: $10.4K, FD: $9.3K | LHP | @ Tampa Bay

Zack Wheeler will undoubtedly be the pitcher of choice in the top tier today. You can't pay up for Clevinger as the most expensive pitcher on the slate when he's facing the Yankees in the Bronx. Wheeler against the Royals is a lot safer given the match up. But his solid floor comes with a lower ceiling as he owns only a 20% strikeout rate since the All-Star break. This will be an unpopular opinion, especially considering how bad he's been recently, but there's incredible upside with Matt Boyd today if you can stomach the risk. We'll start with the bad. Boyd has a 5.77 ERA and 1.38 WHIP since the All-Star break. He's allowed SEVEN home runs in his last two starts. That is not a typo. The good news, however, is despite the poor run prevention he has a massive 29.2% strikeout rate. He also has a 4.02 SIERA during that span, nearly two runs lower than the ERA, suggesting he should start to get back on track here. The Rays are currently in a three way tie for the AL Wild Card and not a team I prefer to attack but they've been mediocre at best against left-handed pitching this season with just a .318 wOBA and .166 ISO. They are also tied for the second highest strikeout rate in baseball against lefties at 26.1% which would give an additional boost to Boyd's already high ceiling here. The floor is quite low, and the recent performance is hard to ignore, but this is a great slate to take a shot on him bouncing back.

Jack Flaherty, STL | DK: $9.7K, FD: $10.7K | RHP | vs. Cincinnati

Flaherty (the unstoppable force) will put his amazing 21 scoreless innings streak on the line today against Aristides Aquino (the immovable object) and the Reds. Admittedly, I'm contradicting myself a couple of times here. First, I always say to avoid pitchers at Great American "Smallpark". Second, I talked earlier this week in this article about how good the Reds offense has been in the month of August (and since they called up Aquino). While both of those are true, it's still hard not to acknowledge how awesome Flaherty has been recently. His 21 scoreless inning streak over his last three starts is the longest by a Cardinals' starter since 2014. During that span he has a 26:4 K:BB ratio and a 0.57 WHIP. If we extend past the last three starts, back to the All-Star break (six starts) he's given up a total of three earned runs (0.70 ERA) with a 0.78 WHIP, and a massive 34.7% strikeout rate. He's been able to bring his ERA down from an ugly 4.90 to a solid 3.52 over the past month. He's had less than 20 fantasy points (DraftKings scoring) just once in his last seven starts and has three consecutive starts of 30 fantasy points or more. Even more impressive about his current scoreless inning streak is two of the three starts were against the Cubs and the Dodgers (the other was against the Royals). He makes for a great pivot off the top tier pitchers today.

Thomas Pannone, TOR | DK: $4.6K, FD: $6.3K | LHP | vs. Seattle

Pannone is expected to be the follower and get the bulk of the innings in today's game against the Mariners. His resume this season is not pretty but as I mentioned in the introduction, today this slate has very little to work with in the value tier. We are essentially throwing darts down here and hoping that it works out. When that's the case, I tend to go all the way down, as cheap as I can which is really the only thing that appeals to me about Pannone. It's a plus match up against a Seattle offense that has some power upside (.194 ISO) but also a heavy strikeout rate at 25.7% - fourth most against left-handed pitching in the league this season. Pannone did have a nine strikeout game earlier this month against the Orioles and anything close to that in this spot today would have a massive ROI on this price tag. This is a pure dart throw but he does have a path to success and if he fails his price is low enough that it won't completely kill your lineup.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Boston Red Sox vs. Ty Blach, BAL

Blach will make a spot start today on the road in Fenway Park. In three appearances at the big league level this season (one start) he's allowed a whopping 16 earned runs with seven strikeouts and seven walks in just 10.1 innings pitched. For those of you scoring at home that's a 13.94 ERA (yikes), 2.71 WHIP, 12.3% strikeouts and 12.3% walks. As an added bonus, he's allowing 41.9% fly balls and a massive 55.8% hard contact rate. I realize we are dealing with a small sample here but these numbers are so bad we have to acknowledge them. The Red Sox lineup is in play from top to bottom here. They have an absurd implied total of 6.8 runs today.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Yusei Kikuchi, SEA

Kikuchi continues to struggle heavily in his debut season and is likely to be limited down the stretch. His most recent disappointment came in his last start against the Tigers where he managed to give up nine hits and five earned runs in just 3.1 innings against the worst offense in baseball. On the year he owns a 5.56 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, and only 16.9% strikeouts. He's also prone to the long ball, allowing 31 dingers in 126 innings pitched (2.21 HR/9). Unfortunately, Toronto will be without Vlad Jr. who is set to undergo an MRI on his left knee. He was just starting to hit his stride at the plate. They still have Bo Bichette though, who is slashing .349/.400/.675 with five home runs and nine RBI in his first 19 games in the Majors. Grichuk has four double-digit fantasy point games in his last five and owns a .950 wOBA+ISO in his last 26 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The switch-hitting Smoak also has great numbers including a .837 wOBA+ISO in his last 17 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. Drury and Fisher are both averaging over 2.0 FP/PA against lefties as well. Toronto has a 5.6 implied total tonight and they are also very affordable.

New York Mets vs. Glenn Sparkman

Sparkman has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last eight starts dating back to July 1st. He owns a 7.21 ERA, 1.65 WHIP, and only a 14.3% strikeout rate while allowing 40% hard contact and giving up 2.27 HR/9 during that span. The Mets late season push continues, as they are now three games above .500 and just two games out of the NL Wild Card. Every win will count for them the rest of the way. They should get JD Davis back today after he exited Friday night's game with a calf issue. Reports are he could have played yesterday, and was available off the bench, but they wanted to give him an extra day. He has a .472 wOBA and .306 ISO in his last 58 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The rookie Pete Alonso continues to impress including a 61.1% hard contact rate in the past two weeks. He's knocking the cover off the ball as he stays in the hunt for home run king this season. Michael Conforto is also standing out on the stat sheet with a .767 wOBA+ISO in his last 65 plate appearances against right-handed pitching. The Mets have a 5.4 implied run total today.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Cesar Hernandez, PHI | DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7K | 2B | vs. Joey Lucchesi

Hernandez, someone who we rarely highlight (if at all) is quietly putting up solid fantasy production recently with double-digit performances in three of his last six games. He owns a surprisingly impressive .635 wOBA+ISO in his last 21 plate appearances against left-handed pitching and 2.71 FP/PA. He's very cheap and plays a position that can often be difficult to fill. He makes for a solid one-off salary saver if you need it today.

Wil Myers, SD | DK: $3.9K, FD: $3K | OF | vs. Jason Vargas

San Diego gets a nice match up today against Jason Vargas who continues to defy statistics and pitch better than he should be. Eventually, I expect this to catch up to him, so I'll continue to have exposure to the teams he faces the rest of the way. Myers and the Padres get a nice park shift going to hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park and the Padres have a solid 5.5 implied run total today. Myers has a .395 wOBA and .300 ISO including 2.21 FP/PA in his last 24 at bats against left-handed pitching.

Hunter Renfroe, SD | DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.1K | OF | vs. Jason Vargas

I'm going to stick with the Padres theme here to make sure I highlight how much I like them today. Pitching is pretty brutal on this slate so I wasn't able to highlight every stack I like. But if you're multi-entering, you can absolutely get some Padres exposure in there. Renfroe has always hit left-handed pitching well including a .718 wOBA+ISO and 2.24 FP/PA in his last 171 plate appearances. He's not swinging a great bat right now but he's affordable and this is as good a spot as it gets for him to break out.

Best of luck today!

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