Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8/18 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & Scott Bogman

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

Happy Hump Day! We have a beefier mid-sized main slate in line for this evening with ten games waiting on deck. And I, for one, am very thankful that the Coors Field match-up will not fall onto the main slate considering it’ll be a pitching match-up of Jake Arrieta versus Chi Chi Gonzalez. I’m sure if the bookies set that over/under at 20 runs, some people would still smash the over (currently it sits at a season-high 14.0 runs). But for this evening’s games, we have a slate that feels somewhat pitcher-centric. There will be plenty of talented arms taking the mound tonight and currently, only five teams have an implied run total over 5.0 runs. This likely means that there will be only a handful of offenses that account for the vast majority of ownership tonight. Feel free to go against the grain in GPPs and run some contrarian stacks out there! At least a couple of these quality pitchers are bound to get shelled (see; Alek Manoah yesterday).

Also, can we pour one out for any Orioles fans out there as they have to face off with the Rays once more? Tampa Bay has massacred them this season, going 12-1 while scoring 8.7 runs/gm and posting a +62 run differential. Just leave them be, Tampa Bay!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

The forecast is pretty clear today with the low chance of random light rainfall happening in a few spots. But a postponement scenario is highly doubtful anywhere this evening.

Best hitting environments: BOS @ NYY, LAA @ DET, HOU @ KC, OAK @ CWS

Best pitching environments: ATL @ MIA, BAL @ TB, SEA @ TEX

BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): The most significant chance for rain, which could cause a late start or in-game delay, will be here in New York. Chances are that if any rain does actually make its way over the stadium, it’ll be light enough to play through. But you could attach a bit more risk to the starting pitchers here, however, I don’t believe either SP (Pivetta & Heaney) should be heavily considered to begin with.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.2k | @ MIA

Morton is setting up to be a strong cash game pitcher today. He has shown off terrific consistency over the last couple of months, he draws a plus match-up in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and he is pitching for a Braves team that has gone 12-2 in their last 14 games. Since June 17th (11 G, 68.0 IP), Morton has collected a 2.51 ERA, 3.33 xFIP, 29.9% kRate, 0.93 WHIP, and opponents are hitting a mere .182 against him in that span with a .242 wOBA. The Marlins will occasionally come through and rock a quality opposing pitcher and cause the chalk to crumble, but it’s not a likely scenario today. As a team, the Marlins have posted a very average 97 wRC+ vs. RHPs over the last two weeks and are striking out 27.1% of the time. Those DFS salaries on Morton are getting a bit steep, but you’re really paying for the floor -- though, Morton is no stranger to 30+ DKFP/50+ FDFP upside performances either and he hit those FP thresholds the last time he pitched against the Marlins back on July 9th (which was also played in Miami). The Braves are huge -240 favorites today while Miami carries a slate-low 3.1 implied run total.

Shohei Ohtani (RHP), LAA | DK: $8.6k, FD: $10.5k | @ DET

Ohtani is clearly a better value on DK at $8,600 but you will likely get him at low ownership if you elect to spend the $10,500 for him on FD. The Tigers offense has simply been downright awful against righty pitching in recent weeks. Across the last 14 days vs. RHPs (331 plate appearances), Detroit is hitting only .191 (ranks last) with a .239 wOBA (last), .095 ISO (28th), 47 wRC+ (last), and a 28.4% kRate (4th highest). After a start against the Yankees back on June 30th where Ohtani just… didn’t ‘have it’ that day (2 H, 4 BB, 7 ER in just 0.2 IP), he settled back in and has been great since then. In the five games since that aforementioned disastrous performance, Ohtani is 4-0 while averaging 93 pitches/gm and has pitched his way to a basement level 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, while walking just 1.1 hitters per nine innings. His strikeouts dipped a bit in that span (24.2% kRate), but if there is any correlation between Ohtani’s lower kRate (and a 24% kRate is still solid) and lowered walk rate/increased plate control, I’d say that’s a decent trade-off. He does tend to pitch better at home but I’ll take my chances on him in Detroit today against a struggling Tigers offense.

Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI | $5.7k, FD: $6,5k | @ ARI

Suarez is an intriguing punt option as he continues to transition from his bullpen role and makes his fourth consecutive start today. He’s reaching his way up to a normal starter’s workload and has progressively thrown 33, 61, and [most recently] 82 pitches in his prior three starts. Assuming that trend continues, we should expect no significant pitch limitations on him in this outing. Keeping in mind that the vast majority of his work has come out of the bullpen this year (meaning, he’s often entering games in advantageous situations), in his 50.1 IP in 2021, Suarez has a minuscule 1.07 ERA with a 3.44 xFIP, 0.87 WHIP, 26% kRate and he is allowing only a .210 wOBA while forcing a 65.5% Ground Ball Rate. The only real criticism on him is his fairly high 10.5% Walk Rate. If he can keep the free passes to a minimum, there is a decent chance that Suarez can return some nice value against an improving but still mediocre D-Backs offense.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

There are really no slam dunk stacks for me today. Perhaps the closest offense that I would consider a ‘top stack’ would be the red hot Tampa Bay Rays as they look to beat up on their little brother, AKA the Orioles, once again.

Secondary Stacks

Boston Red Sox vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), NYY

It’s hard not to like a BoSox stack against a lefty who is prone to giving up the long ball. Boston has posted a .376 wOBA and 138 wRC+ vs. LHPs over the last two weeks while striking out just 18.5% of the time. Andrew Heaney’s primary weapon as a pitcher is his ability to collect a high number of strikeouts (28.2% kRate L20Gms). If the Boston Red Sox take that away from him, he could be in for a tough day on the mound. The tough thing about running a Boston stack today is the fact that they’ll have to contend with a very good Yankees bullpen once Heaney is retired. So I believe looking at perhaps a three-man Red Sox stack would be preferable (as opposed to four or five-man stacks) in hopes of landing on the right guys who knock Heaney around during his innings on the mound.

Atlanta Braves vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

The Braves currently only have a 4.3 implied run total today, which does seem a bit low given the match-up. Jesus Luzardo has posted a slate worst 7.52 ERA (5.11 xFIP) and 1.71 WHIP this year while allowing a .397 wOBA and .564 SLG. The Braves have confusingly struggled quite a bit against lefties this season but their offensive averages are creeping up against southpaws in recent weeks. Of course, Marlins Park is not the best for hitting upside and Miami does have a pretty strong bullpen but, putting my Braves bias aside, I believe they can come through with some nice results today and they may actually be fairly low-owned.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

Since returning home for this series against Pittsburgh, the Dodgers have taken the opportunity against a bad opponent to provide several of its veteran hitters with a day off in either Monday or yesterday’s game against. It has worked out for them as they’ve eked out two wins by a one run margin. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this Dodgers lineup back at full strength today (with the exception of Mookie Betts, who is still on the IL). LAD is in a battle with the Giants for the NL West and they currently sit four games back from the division lead. The strategy to give some of their veterans some rest over the last couple of days has paid off, but I would imagine that it has felt a little ‘too close for comfort.’ JT Brubaker is not a horrible pitcher, but he has had some issues on the road this season where he has posted a 6.05 ERA, 4.19 xFIP, 1.36 WHIP, and is giving up 2.33 HR/9. The Pirates have had a bottom 10 ranked bullpen over the last month as well, so if the Dodgers come out in full force, they should find some success today. I imagine they could go underowned since their starting lineup may not even be released until after the first game of the slate begins.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

2B Ozzie Albies | DK: $5k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

OF JD Martinez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k |vs. Andrew Heaney (LHP), NYY

OF Cody Bellinger | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

3B/2B Abraham Toro | DK: $4.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

SS JP Crawford | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

2B/3B Aledmys Diaz | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

SS Didi Gregorious | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Humberto Castellanos (RHP), ARI

OF Manuel Margot | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

2B/3B/SS Yonny Hernandez | DK: $2.4k, FD: $2.6k |vs. Marco Gonzalez (LHP), SEA

OF Jake Meyers | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Brady Singer (RHP), KC

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Nelson Cruz | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

I don’t know what the Orioles or the city of Baltimore did to Nelson Cruz in the past, but he tends to utterly demolish them. In 78 career games versus Baltimore, Cruz is hitting .345 with a .447 wOBA, .301 ISO, 183 wRC+, and 21 Home Runs. He’s blasted four homers in the last four games against them, including a double dinger performance yesterday. RHP Spenser Watkins also has some very poor reverse splits with an awful 6.04 xFIP vs. RHBs alongside a .240 ISO and 1.89 HR/9 Rate. The Rays have shown absolutely no mercy against the Orioles this year and I would look for Cruz to continue to be a core piece of the onslaught.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Click here to join the Wednesday DK freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.