Top MLB DFS Plays 8/18 | A Balanced Tuesday Slate

August 18, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Yesterday’s slate essentially ended up being what we thought it would be. Pitching was a minefield (Stripling turned into the biggest one) and offense ruled the night. Today brings a bit more balance, with several upper-tier pitchers taking the mound. Plenty of offenses are in favorable situations as well as eight teams have an implied run total of 4.9 or greater. Due to the ongoing COVID-19 testing within the Reds organization, the Cincinnati versus Kansas City game will be postponed to a later date, which puts us at a 10-game evening slate. This should be another entertaining night of games, so let’s get down to business.

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

It looks like there aren't any rain threats today but there are still some games where heat and wind could have an impact.

STL @ CHC: Wind blowing in from left field around 10 mph.

DET @ CWS: Wind blowing out to right field around 10 mph.

SEA @ LAD: Very hot with temps around 100 degrees at first pitch with some light winds blowing out to center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Yu Darvish (RHP) | DK: $10.5k, FD: $9.9k | vs. STL

I’m not going to get too cute with the high-end pitcher today. Aside from showing a little off-season rust in his 2020 debut, Darvish has been excellent this season. Through four starts and 24.0 IP, he’s rocking a 1.88 ERA, 3.10 xFIP, 0.75 WHIP, and a .167 opponent AVG (.209 wOBA) while striking out 30% of hitters, including a dominant 16% Swinging Strike Rate. If you watched his last start versus Milwaukee, you’ll remember that he had a no-hitter going into the seventh inning. He’ll take the mound once again in Wrigley Field where 10 mph winds blowing in should only help Darvish’s odds of pitching a strong performance. The Cardinals have obviously had to miss out on a lot of games this season due to coronavirus related hold-ups, so we don’t have as strong of a sample size from them when it comes to data and metrics. But across 255 plate appearances against RHPs this season, St. Louis ranks in the bottom half of the league in every major offensive stat and they’re striking out 23.9% of the time. They’ll have just a 3.3 implied run total tonight as Darvish and the Cubs are heavy -190 favorites.

Others To Consider:

Blake Snell (LHP) | DK: $9.5k, FD: $8.4k | @ NYY -- Snell is an interesting contrarian candidate to spend up on now that his pitch count restriction rose to 70 in his last start. If he can touch 80-85 pitches then his strikeout upside (37% kRate in 2020) could be enough to pay off his DFS salaries. The Yankees are obviously a tough match-up but they’re also without arguably their three best hitters with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, and DJ LeMahieu all on the IL.

Zach Eflin (RHP) | DK: $6.9k, FD: $7.9k | @ BOS -- I might be pushing the envelope a bit too far with Eflin but, despite just a two start sample size (10 IP), his 2.11 xFIP is the best mark on the slate and he’s striking out 34.9% of hitters. Those two starts came against the Yankees (130 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 1st) and the Orioles (104 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 12th). The Red Sox have struggled versus RHPs so far this season (87 wRC+ vs. RHPs, ranks 24th) and they’ve struck out 26.5% of the time. It may not be the worst idea to give Eflin some exposure today.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Dodgers stand out as really the only chalky team stack today. I believe that offensive ownership will be fairly spread out on this slate, especially after so many different teams scored a ton of runs last night. But anyhow, I definitely love some Dodger bats tonight but you’ll have to live with some pretty high ownership if you’re looking to stack them up.

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Zack Godley (RHP), BOS

Through four starts, Godley has looked pretty decent in two games (vs. NYM & TOR) but he was an absolute gas can in his starts against the Yankees and Rays. Now, plenty of pitchers have been lit up by the Yankees this season and the Rays absolutely have some dangerous power in their lineup. With that said, in those 6.1 innings that Godley pitched against NYY and TB, he allowed 16 hits, 13 earned runs, and FIVE home runs. The Phillies bats are pretty hot right now as well. In their last seven games, they’re averaging 6.9 runs (nice), a .299 AVG, .373 wOBA, .231 ISO and have 13 HRs. Depending on which version of Godley takes the mound tonight, the Phillies could really pop off. The Red Sox bullpen has also been pretty mediocre this season, so if Godley is retired early that shouldn’t hurt the Philly stack potential too much.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), BAL

After an incredibly sluggish start to the 2020 season, the young but talented bats of the Toronto (Buffalo?) Blue Jays have finally woken up. They’re averaging 7.4 runs/game over their last five and in that stretch they lead the MLB with 18 home runs! Wade LeBlanc is a guy who is well-known to often get blown up. He’s allowed four dingers already this season across 17.2 IP (2.04 HR/9) and he has posted a very poor 7.13 ERA & 5.58 xFIP. Baltimore also has a fairly middle-of-the-road bullpen. The Blue Jays are a very volatile offense but when they hit, they typically *really* hit. We’ll see if the bats stay hot tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Masahiro Tanaka (RHP), NYY

I doubt many people will take a chance on Rays bats tonight, simply because Masahiro Tanaka does garner some respect and the Yankees bullpen is also pretty legit. But the Rays have scored at least seven runs in five of their last seven games and they have a handful of legitimate power bats. Brandon Lowe, Mike Brosseau, Hunter Renfroe, Austin Meadows, and Willy Adames all have at least a .239 ISO this season and are a threat to go deep most against any pitcher. Despite swinging some really hot bats, I doubt any of these guys are above 10% owned tonight.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.7k | vs. Josh Tomlin (RHP) + Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

Yes, he’s going to take up a big chunk of your salary, but who is really stopping Soto right now? He’s only played in 12 games this season but in that time he has gone 18-for-44 (.410 AVG) with a massive .578 wOBA, .545 ISO, and seven home runs! If for some reason the season ended right now, he’d likely be a lead candidate for Offensive MVP. Soto leads the league with a 271 wRC+ (min. 30 PA) so that is pretty much saying he is 171% *better* than the average MLB player this season. The Braves are going to roll with an opener (Tomlin) + long reliever (likely Ynoa) + bullpen pitching strategy today. So there’s no discernible match-up to stack up against Soto, but really he’s been borderline match-up proof.

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Nate Pearson (RHP), TOR

I’m pretty surprised that Santander’s salaries haven’t risen more yet. He’s been on a tear lately and over his last 11 games (50 PA) he’s hitting .340 with a .477 wOBA, .468 ISO, five home runs, five doubles, a triple, and 15 RBI. He has simply been an extra base machine. He should get a couple at-bats against a young, inexperienced pitcher in Nate Pearson (5.77 xFIP) before a mediocre Blue Jays bullpen gets into the mix.

OF Alex Verdugo | DK: $3.4k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Zach Eflin (RHP), PHI

While I think Eflin does have the potential to pitch a solid performance tonight, I’m also okay with taking lefty hitters (like Verdugo) against him. Eflin has given up 11 hits, six runs, and two homers through his 10.0 IP this season. With the exception of one hit, all of that production has been at the hands of LHBs. Eflin’s long term splits also show his struggles with lefty hitters, so his 2020 stats don’t seem to be too far off from the norm. Verdugo has been a solid .280 hitter this season and has shown plenty of pop with five homers on the year. Verdugo has gotten several lead-off/No. 2 opportunities in the last couple weeks but even if he’s slotted at 6th or 7th in the order, I’m on board with him for these low salaries.

Update: Verdugo confirmed as the lead-off hitter.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Randall Grichuk | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), BAL

In his last 15 games on the road at Camden Yards, Grichuk has hit four homers (including three HRs in eight games in ‘19) and has a .311 AVG, .409 wOBA, and .328 ISO. He enters tonight with three bombs in his last four games so there’s a good chance he keeps the hot bat swinging against Wade LeBlanc and the Orioles tonight.

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