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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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It’s Tuesday, so you know what that means in the world of Major League Baseball -- another mammoth set of games will be heading our way! There are 14 mutually shared games between the DK and FD main slates. As is often the case, DraftKings will be throwing in the second leg of the BOS @ NYY doubleheader onto their main slate; FanDuel will not. As a reminder, that game will only be set to play seven innings (pending extras). If you’re a DK player, I would actually consider pitchers on both sides of that doubleheader game since, if they’re able to cover seven innings while throwing a solid game, they’ll earn the “complete game” bonus (and a CGSO bonus if they can blank the opposing team).

But our main focus will fall on the 14 remaining match-ups this evening. After giving this slate an initial look-over, I have no complaints. There is no shortage of viable pitching at various price points, a strong case can be made for about a dozen or so offenses when it comes to stack consideration, and finally, there are no immediate weather concerns at the time of this writing! This should be a fun one so let’s dive right in!

Also, for any NFL fans who may be interested in doing some best ball drafts before the season starts, there will be a “2021 Best Ball Strategy Guide” sent out (likely) later today!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There are no immediate weather situations to be concerned about. Things could always change closer to lock, and there are a couple of spots that may see a bit of rain, but I don’t believe we’ll be facing any postponement scenarios this evening.

Best hitting conditions: TOR @ WAS, CHC @ CIN, CLE @ MIN, SD @ COL

Best pitching conditions: ATL @ MIA, BAL @ TB, SEA @ TEX

TOR @ WAS (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Chance for a delay if they don’t completely avoid a storm system that is expected to pass by to the south. If some sort of delay is needed, there will likely be no issues once they get going.

BOS @ NYY (7:05 ET, 7 O/U): Game 2 --Lower-end chance of some rain to fall over Yankees Stadium, but probably nothing strong enough to stop play. Some delay risk exists, however.

CHC @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Possibility of some pop-up storms in the Cincy area this evening. One may not really come too close to the stadium at all, but there is a chance.

CLE @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Temps will hover around 85-90 degrees for this game but 10+ mph winds will be blowing in from right. Those winds shouldn’t nix the bats from consideration, but they could mitigate some home run upside.

SD @ COL (8:40 ET, 12.5 O/U): More great hitting weather at Coors Field. It’ll be about 90 degrees at first pitch with 10 mph winds blowing to straightaway center.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Alek Manoah (RHP), TOR | DK: $8.6k, FD: $9.9k | @ WAS

Corbin Burnes ($10.2k/$11.5k) is locked in as the top pitcher to spend up on today’s slate. He’ll be very popular, but I have no problems going to him at all, especially in cash.

Manoah has passed the eye test in his rookie campaign and is solidifying himself as one of the better young pitchers in the league. Over his previous five starts, he has acquired a 1.84 ERA, 0.92 WHIP, and a 31.9% kRate while averaging 98 pitches/gm in that span. He has averaged 25.6 DKFPPG/44 FDFPPG in that five game stretch as well and he hasn’t been going up against the easiest of opponents either. The only knock I have against Manoah is his fairly high 8.7% Walk Rate on the season, but that’s about it. Manoah and the Blue Jays will waltz into Washington today as stout -200 favorites. The Nationals have hit only .244 vs. RHPs over the last two weeks with a .301 wOBA, .130 ISO, and 84 wRC+. They’re not a completely hopeless offense, but those numbers put them in the bottom third of the league, and there just aren’t many bats to fear in this lineup outside of Juan Soto.

Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL | DK: $7.3k, FD: $8.4k | @ MIA

I can already tell that Ynoa is going to be a very popular SP2 option on DraftKings, given his $7,300 price tag. However, this definitely isn’t as ‘obvious’ of a play as it seems. Things could go right for Ynoa today about as easily as they could go wrong. To get the main talking point out of the way, this will be Ynoa’s first MLB start in three months after he broke his hand while punching a bench in the dugout out of frustration way back on May 16th. What a costly hissy fit that was. While Ynoa did post up strong fantasy outings in the majority of his starts, he was still getting hit very hard. His 91.1 mph average exit velocity and 47.9% HardHit% both rank as the highest figures among today’s SPs. Now, he did show great strikeout stuff prior to getting hurt (27.9% kRate) and didn’t allow many base runners (1.05 WHIP) while pitching his way to a very respectable 3.02 ERA and 3.18 xFIP. He also threw 83 pitches in his most recent rehab start in the minor leagues last Wednesday, so he likely shouldn’t face any hard pitch count restrictions. Ynoa will get to step on the mound at one of the best pitching environments on the slate but the Marlins are also hitting well lately and have posted an above average 109 wRC+ vs. RHPs in the last two weeks. They still have struck out plenty in that span (26.7% kRate). I do like Ynoa’s chances to succeed today, but I’m not expecting it to be a cakewalk.

Drew Rasmussen (RHP), TB | DK: $5.9k, FD: $5.6k | vs. BAL

Rasmussen is a 100% contrarian GPP only play, largely due to his uncertain pitch count. He has primarily been utilized out of the bullpen this season and rarely throws beyond about two innings. But due to various injuries and ailments within their rotation, the Rays may be in the process of stretching him out as normal starter moving forward. Rasmussen has thrown 53 and 50 pitches in his last two appearances, so even at these low salaries, he would need to reach around a 65-75 pitch count to really present some upside. It’s not a guarantee that his leash gets extended that far today, but it is possible. He has posted an excellent 29.2 % kRate this season along with a 3.42 xFIP and .284 opp wOBA. The Rays have owned the Orioles all season and will unsurprisingly check-in as major -240 favorites while Baltimore carries a low 3.6 implied run total. If Rasmussen manages to pitch across five, perhaps six efficient innings, he could likely put himself in line for the win while getting six or seven strikeouts along the way. However, he won’t be a play for the faint of heart.

DK Only: Nathan Eovaldi ($9,700) and Luis Gil ($7,000) are both interesting options from a GPP perspective. With only seven innings set to be played in the second leg of the doubleheader, both guys will have a much higher chance to earn those complete game bonuses.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Coors Field will have some great hitting weather and should continue to draw more attention today with both the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres leading the slate with a 6.5 implied run total apiece. There is no shortage of other appealing stacks to roll out on this slate, but none that meet the criteria that I look for when pointing out ‘top stacks.’ I am very tempted to list the Toronto Blue Jays vs. Erick Fedde… and I guess I just did. But many of the primary bats in that offense have just gotten so expensive, especially on DK. But, hey, if you have the salary for ‘em, stack away!

Edit: I ended up liking several Minnesota Twins bats when I was going through some one-off hitters to list below, and they’re all pretty cheap. So I will throw them in here as another top stack to consider -- largely due to potential value but they also draw an appealing match-up.

Secondary Stacks

Houston Astros vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

The rookie Daniel Lynch only has a 31.2 IP sample size to go off of this year but in that time he has accounted for a poor 5.97 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, and a 1.61 WHIP. He has posted a couple of nice games recently, but he can be wildly inconsistent at times with his plate control and will often give up powerful contact and barreled baseballs. Lynch’s 9.7% Barrel% is the highest mark among today’s SPs and he has allowed a lofty 90.5 average exit velocity with a 46.2% HardHit% as well as a slate-worst .376 xwOBA. The Astros have posted a league-best 116 wRC+ vs. LHPs this year while striking out a league-low 18.8% of the time. Most of these Houston bats are going to be able to capitalize on whatever mistakes Lynch makes. The Royals bullpen has been pitching better in recent weeks, but it won’t be an elite unit that backs up Lynch today. While Kauffman Stadium is not necessarily a great home run park, it is known as a solid hitter’s park and has the 10th highest park factor rating this season.

Cincinnati Reds vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

Hendricks has not matched up well historically against this Reds lineup, to say the least. In 160 plate appearances versus current Cincy hitters, Hendricks has allowed a .302 AVG, .384 wOBA, and .223 ISO with a 20% kRate. Now, BvP isn’t always what it’s cracked up to be and isn’t something I look to reference too often when looking for potential team stacks or one-offs. But those are some remarkably poor BvP numbers that are attached to fairly large sample size. The Reds are almost always in play when they’re at home (5.69 runs/gm at home - ranks 2nd behind the Rockies at Coors Field) and they didn’t have much trouble putting up 14 runs on Chicago yesterday. We shouldn’t expect that amount of offense out of the Reds again, but an 8+ run kinda day would not surprise me in the least, especially with the now bottom ten ranked Cubs bullpen set to follow up Hendricks’ once is he retired from the mound.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Miami Marlins vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

I hate to go against my Braves but from a DFS perspective, Miami makes sense as a leverage stack against Ynoa who should carry fairly high ownership (especially on DK). Now, I did highlight Ynoa above and will be playing him today, but I’m also giving him about a 60% chance he succeeds and a 40% chance he fails. The Marlins bats will go virtually unowned (3-5% max own% on most) despite the fact that they’ve been fairly solid against righty pitching lately and Ynoa has a tendency to allow plenty of hard contact.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Erick Fedde (RHP), WAS

C Will Smith | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. John Means (LHP), BAL

1B/2B/SS Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.9k, FD: $4.1k | vs. German Marquez (RHP), COL

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

2B/SS Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

3B Josh Donaldson | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

OF Rafael Ortega | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

1B/3B Aledmys Diaz | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

1B Jesus Aguilar | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Huascar Ynoa (RHP), ATL

1B/OF Connor Joe | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Matt Strahm (LHP), SD

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

C Robinson Chirinos | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Bailey Ober (RHP), MIN

2B/3B/SS Yonny Hernandez | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.2k | vs. Tyler Hernandez (LHP), SEA

1B Franck Schwindel | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Vladimir Gutierrez (RHP), CIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5.5k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

He needed a ninth inning walk-off situation to get it done, but CJ Cron ultimately came through for yesterday’s HR call. I’ll go away from Coors Field today while still keeping the dial set to ‘easy mode’ for my HR call today. Joey Votto. He’s a promising young first baseman for the Cincinnati Reds. You may also know him as perhaps the hottest hitter in baseball right now. In the last month, Votto has launched a league-best 15 home runs while also accounting for a league-best .521 wOBA, a league-best .490 ISO, a league-best 225 wRC+, and… a 53.3% Hard Contact Rate which ranks fourth. There is always room for improvement. Votto has done the vast majority of that damage against RHPs. He’ll step into the box against a righty he loves to see today. In 34 at-bats against Kyle Hendricks, Votto has four home runs and a .539 wOBA. Hendricks has also allowed 1.82 HR/9 and a .238 ISO to LHBs this season. I’m sure he’ll go 0-for-3 with a walk due to me saying this, but Votto is about as straightforward of a home run call as there is.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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