Top MLB DFS Plays 8/17 | Offenses Ready to Explode

August 17, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Welcome back to another edition of the LineStar Daily Ledger. I hope everyone had a great weekend! Sports fans should have a ton of different games and events to look forward to for the foreseeable future and MLB will do its part by starting off the workweek with a juicy 11-game evening slate. Despite having so many games on the docket, this is definitely one of those days where pitching seems like a bit of a minefield. However, on the flip-side, that usually means there are a load of offenses in strong spots. That appears to be the case today with 13 teams currently carrying an implied run total of 4.8 or greater. This should be a fun one so let’s jump right into it!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

KC @ MIN: Winds blowing out to right around 8 mph.

OAK @ ARI: They’re opening the roof at Chase Field tonight where it will be near 115 degrees in Phoenix! This game features two of the better starting pitchers on the slate but I’d still look out for a few dingers in this one.

🚨TOR @ BAL:🚨 We could see a potential late start to this game as rain clears out around first pitch. Should be good to go after that so I wouldn’t expect a postponement but it's definitely a situation to monitor.

🚨BOS @ NYY:🚨 This is probably the game to keep an eye on leading up to lock. There is a decent threat of scattered thunderstorms interfering with this match-up around the time of first pitch (7:05 pm ET). While they should be able to play this entire game out, be mindful of potential delays (and a postponement can’t be completely ruled out). Check the forecast and see what an actual meteorologist has to say about this game closer to first pitch (I recommend following @KevinRothWx on Twitter if you don’t already).

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Ross Stripling (RHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.1k | vs. SEA

There’s always a bit of pitch count unpredictability with Dodger pitchers, simply due to the fact that manager Dave Roberts is known to pull guys early on occasion. But Stripling has thrown at least 86 pitches in three of his four starts and he’s in one of the most favorable spots tonight at home against the Mariners. Seattle is a below average offense against RHPs with an 89 wRC+ and they strike out a decent amount, with a 23.9% kRate. Stripling isn’t a dominant strikeout specialist (21.1% kRate this season) but as long as he sees around 90 pitches, he has the ability to rack up around six or seven Ks. For these mid-range salaries, that’s about all you could ask for. Throughout his career, Stripling has also pitched a bit better at home in Dodger Stadium where he sports a 3.07 ERA, 3.59 xFIP, 1.15 WHIP, and a .294 opponent wOBA. The Dodgers are also the heaviest favorites of the slate (-293) so the win bonus should definitely be in play for Stripling.

Touki Toussaint (RHP) | DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.1k | vs. WAS

This is far from a safe pick, and Toussaint should probably only be a GPP option, but if strikeouts are the most prized asset when it comes to MLB DFS pitching then Toussaint could provide you with quite a few of those. Toussaint’s 30.3% kRate and 14.2% Swinging Strike Rate are the highest marks among starting pitchers today. His 7.27 ERA looks pretty rough on paper but it would seem he is getting very unfortunate when you consider that he has a 3.22 xFIP and 3.29 SIERA -- both figures are also the best among today’s pitchers. Washington is a pretty scary match-up, and they’re anchored by a red hot Juan Soto and Trea Turner, but on the season against RHPs they are hitting just .236 (ranks 18th) with a .296 wOBA (24th) and 84 wRC+ (25th). The Nationals are playing better lately than those season long numbers indicate but I still believe Toussaint carries some sneaky upside and should be fairly low owned. The Braves are also solid -146 favorites today.

Others to Consider:

Zac Gallen (RHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $9.7k | vs. OAK -- Seems like the safest ‘spend-up’ option due to very strong strikeout upside (29.8% kRate) but you may have to live with a couple potential homers being hit against him since Arizona is opening up the roof in 115 degree heat.

Brandon Bielak (RHP) | DK: $7.4k, FD: $6.3k | vs. COL -- Hasn’t shown immense upside yet but this could easily be his best start from a fantasy perspective to date. Thru 15.1 IP, he is sporting a 1.76 ERA and .218 opponent AVG. He simply needs to get the strikeouts up (currently a 17.7% kRate). Astros are lofty -172 favorites tonight.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: The Dodgers and Yankees appear to be in the best spots tonight and will likely carry high ownership but they’re worth playing. Simply differentiate elsewhere in your lineups!

Atlanta Braves vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Sanchez has not experienced much success to start off his 2020 season. Through three starts, Sanchez has only managed to pitch 13 innings. In that time, he has attained a 9.69 ERA, 6.20 xFIP, 2.15 WHIP, .316 opponent AVG, and is striking out just 19.1% of hitters. The Braves have been excellent against RHPs this season with a .340 wOBA (ranks 3rd), .208 ISO (6th), and 115 wRC+ (5th). In case Atlanta forces Sanchez to retire early in the game, they’ll see some innings against a not bad, but relatively mediocre, Nationals bullpen.

San Diego Padres vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

Lyles’ 7.15 xFIP is the worst mark on the slate and he is striking out just 16% of hitters this season and he’s walking as many batters as he strikes out. San Diego is often a boom/bust team to stack but they have plenty of power in their lineup and the Padres’ .208 ISO versus RHPs ranks 5th in the MLB. The Rangers also have one of the worst bullpens up to this point in the season. Their 5.14 xFIP and 12.9% Walk Rate are both bottom five figures and they’re allowing a high 45.5% Hard Contact Rate. I’m expecting at least two or three Padres to go yard tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

Oakland Athletics vs. Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI

I wouldn’t be shocked if Gallen is the highest owned pitcher on this slate so there is obvious leverage in stacking up some A’s players against him. As I mentioned, the roof will be open at Chase Field where air temps will be around 115 degrees, so there serious potential for some home runs to fly over the wall if anyone makes solid contact. If you’re looking for some Oakland bats who have the best chances to go yard off of Gallen, they have five guys who have at least a .233 ISO versus RHPs this year -- Matt Chapman, Stephen Piscotty, Robbie Grossman, Matt Olson, and Sean Murphy.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

Betts is really starting to heat up after hitting .380 over the last week (29 at-bats) with four homers, nine RBI, and a .509 wOBA/.414 ISO. If your name is Justin Dunn, that’s information you probably don’t want to hear. Dunn has given up three home runs already this season through 13.0 IP (2.08 HR/9) and is allowing a .368 wOBA and .214 ISO to RHBs. You’ll have to shell out a pretty penny to afford Betts but he has proven to be worth it on plenty of occasions recently.

SS Tim Anderson | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Matthew Boyd (LHP), DET

Anderson appears to be over the groin injury that landed him on the IL earlier this month. Since returning, he has gone 6-for-18 with a triple, a home run, and a stolen bag. He typically hits lefties really well, and over his last 150 games versus LHPs (180 PA), Anderson has a .347 AVG with a .398 wOBA. Boyd has really struggled this season, to say the least. While he isn’t as bad as his 10.24 ERA would indicate, he is still rocking a poor 5.44 xFIP and 4.95 SIERA while allowing a .349 AVG and .439 wOBA. Anderson seems like a really solid mid-range option to invest in tonight.

C Travis d’Arnaud | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

For that $2,500 price tag on DraftKings, how can you not love d’Arnaud? He will be batting 3rd in the order on a Braves team that is in an excellent spot today against Sanchez. d’Arnaud has been one of the best hitting catchers this season while also showing the ability to provide some pop. As a catcher, he gets fewer at-bats than most other positional players but in 48 at-bats on the season, he is hitting .330 with a .393 wOBA, .271 ISO, three home runs and 12 RBI -- good enough for a 165 wRC+. In case you missed it, you can scroll up to the Braves write-up in the stack section and see how bad some of Sanchez’s numbers have been this season. While d’Arnaud is a clear value on DraftKings, he’s still worth consideration on FanDuel as well since many people will rarely play a catcher in the “C/1B” roster spot.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Mookie Betts | DK: $5.9k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA

The match-up against Dunn and a really poor Mariners bullpen that has given up 1.79 HR/9 this season is too hard to resist, so I’m going to roll with Betts as my home run call. Here’s to a late night Mookie dinger!

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