Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🏈 1st Episode of the PreSnap Podcast is up! Joe and Chris Preview the AFC/NFC East for the upcoming NFL DFS season!

🔊 8/16 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 4:00  Nats Stack

• 6:48  Tanaka @ Home

• 9:08  Kyle Hendricks @ Pirates

• 13:37  Red Sox @ Home

• 16:50  Morton vs. Detroit

• 19:42  Minor or Odorizzi?

• 20:50  Syndergaard @ KC

• 22:39  Jon Gray $8k

• 27:06  Betting Lines & HR Calls

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Happy Friday to all you fine hard-working folks out there! You know what the end of the work week entails -- another evening full of MLB action which includes all 30 teams. The race for playoffs is in full gear and many teams need to be locked in “win now” mode. I’m going to jump right into the action but first let me give a huge shout out to the man himself, Greg Landry, for covering for me over the last few days while I’ve been on a quick vacation. Big thanks to him!

Today’s match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Weather Outlook 🌩️

There are no immediate postponement threats on the radar but some areas (Washington, Philly, Kansas City, Colorado, and New York) have a bit of delay risk with smaller chances of rain in the forecast. It’s too early to make a strong assessment on any of those games but be sure to run a final weather check leading up to first pitch. Elsewhere, warm and humid weather in Atlanta and Texas will provide what will likely be our best hitting conditions outside of Coors Field.

Pitchers to Consider

Charlie Morton (DK: $11.6k, FD: $11.3k) | RHP | vs. Detroit

There is an absolute abundance of talented pitchers to choose from today but one could argue Morton as the best play on the board. Sure, he’ll likely be chalk, especially if people opt out of paying the ‘Verlander tax’ but Morton feels like a very risky fade here. He’s been a machine at home this season where, in 11 games (68.2 IP) Morton holds a 6-2 record with a rock bottom 2.75 ERA, 2.83 xFIP, 35.2% kRate, 0.98 WHIP, and an opponent .204 AVG/.253 wOBA. Detroit is… Detroit. By now you know how bad this Tigers team is. Their 78 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month ranks them 26th alongside a lofty 27.1% kRate. In Morton’s previous start against them back on June 5th, it took him just 83 pitches to amass 33 DKFP/55 FDFP with eight strikeouts across seven shutout innings. Tampa Bay will head into tonight as colossal -300 favorites -- a sort of moneyline you don’t see very often in baseball. Lock and load the Rays ace today.

Jon Gray (DK: $8k, FD: $7k) | RHP | vs. Miami

As stout as the pitchers are tonight, the mid-range and value range feels like it is lacking considerably. Rostering a Coors Field pitcher is never a safe investment but the match-up is obviously ideal and Gray actually posts slightly better splits at home overall. The Marlins occasionally do unexpectedly productive things, like scoring 13 runs on the Dodgers yesterday, but the majority of the time you can look through their game logs and see run totals more in the zero, one, two, or three range. Their 74 wRC+ against RHPs over the last month ranks 28th and they provide a strong 25% kRate to pitchers. At home this year, Gray has a 3.88 ERA, 3.89 xFIP, 22.4% kRate, 1.37 WHIP and opponents are hitting .270 with a .329 wOBA. Coors Field being Coors Field, given enough innings, almost any pitcher is going to give up homers. However, Gray limits the long ball very well, given the circumstances, and allows a very respectable 1.07 HR/9. If you play Gray tonight you have to just accept the risk involved, but the upside is very nice for the DFS price tags he carries. The Rockies are big -230 favorites tonight.

Joe Musgrove (DK: $6.2k, FD: $6.4k) | RHP | vs. Chicago Cubs

I think it’s time, maybe even overdue, to start attacking this Cubs team with pitchers. Chicago has been a pretty below average offense as of late. They’re only producing an 86 wRC+ (ranks 24th) versus RHPs over the last month and are very much a boom/bust team these days. Musgrove has also had the Cubs number in previous starts. In 54 at bats, they’re only hitting a mere .090 against him. I can’t pretend like Musgrove is a great pitcher and there’s certainly a decent chance this backfires. But for the prices, I believe there are plenty of scenarios where Musgrove returns value tonight and there are far scarier options priced around him.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Field + Globe Life Park Disclaimer: As is usually the case, we’ll be skipping over the teams in these two parks but you know the sort of home run and scoring upside that can take place at Coors and GLP. If you’re running multiple lineups any of these teams can fall into stack consideration.

Boston Red Sox vs. Aaron Brooks (RHP), BAL

Perhaps this is the lowest hanging fruit of the day but this match-up is too juicy to go without mentioning. You can’t imagine Aaron Brooks’ confidence is very high right now after being on the wrong end of the 23 run dismantling that Houston posted in his last start -- Brooks being responsible for nine of those runs. He’s been getting blasted this season and has a slate high 2.36 HR/9 rate while allowing a .258 ISO to righties, .284 ISO to lefties. If the BoSox tag up Brooks early and force him into an early exit, no worries. It’s pretty well documented by now that the Orioles bullpen provides plenty of scoring opportunities when they enter in relief. Honestly, I don’t even want to recommend any particular Boston players because pretty much everyone can fall into play tonight. Just mix and match whatever works for a particular lineup build.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), SEA

LeBlanc will take his 7.64 road ERA to Toronto to face off with the talented young Blue Jays core. LeBlanc has also allowed 2.73 HR/9 on the road this year alongside a 1.70 WHIP so some multi-run shots could be on the table for some of these Toronto bats tonight. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has been pretty terrible against lefties so if you want to skip over him I wouldn’t really blame you. But elsewhere, guys like Bo Bichette, Teoscar Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk are all legitimate home run threats.

Atlanta Braves vs. Kenta Maeda (RHP), LAD

Maeda has struggled on the road this year en route to a 2-5 record alongside a 5.66 ERA (4.57 xFIP) and .321 opponent wOBA. He’s a quality pitcher but if you’re going to attack him, definitely aim to do it when he is away from Dodger Stadium. He’ll try to slow down these Braves bats that have been heating back up lately. Atlanta has scored at least five runs, and up to twelve, in eight of their last nine games. Freddie Freeman, Ronald Acuna Jr., Josh Donaldson, and Ender Inciarte all have at least a 153 wRC+ against RHPs in the last month and would be my preferred options.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Juan Soto (DK: $5.1k, FD: $4.1k) | OF | vs. Adrian Houser (RHP) , MIL

If you want a high ceiling, Soto can certainly deliver. In his last 20 games versus RHPs (55 plate appearances) the Nats star is hitting .333 with a .551 wOBA, .571 ISO with seven homers and 14 RBI to show for it. Adrian Houser has shown pretty extreme splits this year and has a very difficult time keeping lefty bats at bay. Against him, LHBs are hitting .322 with a .420 wOBA, .263 ISO, on a huge 48.2% Hard Contact Rate. With an average exit velocity over the last two weeks of 94.2 mph (top 90%), I believe Soto can get ahold of one off Houser and the Brewers tonight. He’ll be my home run call of the evening.💣

Michael Brantley (DK: $4.3k, FD: $4.1k) | OF | vs. Tanner Roark (RHP), OAK

I couldn’t go this entire article without mentioning any Astros. They’re clearly a stackable offense but if you’re aiming for some one off exposure, Brantley seems about as strong of an option as any. This DK price is also absurdly cheap given what Brantley has done lately. He has an elite .340 average with a .416 wOBA and .240 ISO versus RHPs this year. Roark is not too hot versus lefty bats. LHBs have a .301 AVG against him this season with a .391 wOBA and .201 ISO. Brantley’s been a hitting machine (.500 AVG over last week) and feels like a super safe investment tonight (if there is such a thing in baseball DFS).

Francisco Mejia (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k) | C | vs. Vince Velasquez (RHP), PHI

Mejia has hit incredibly well for the Padres lately. He’s hitting .439 against RHPs in his last 20 games (42 plate appearances) with a .494 wOBA, .268 ISO, and a trio of homers. Nothing in VV’s arsenal scares me too much and if he’s set to carry significant ownership tonight, taking a one off guy like Mejia is a great way to gain some leverage.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

And be sure to subscribe to the PreSnap Podcast - more preseason shows on the way!

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