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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8/16 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & ZeroInDenver

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I hope everyone had a great weekend! A new week of MLB DFS action will get going tonight with a reduced slate, but still a bountiful one, with 10 games waiting on deck. Some big news today includes Yankees ace Gerrit Cole making his return from the COVID IL. Cole could potentially face a somewhat limited workload, but I’d be shocked to see him throw fewer than 80-85 pitches or so. Coors Field will also be back on the menu for the first time in over a week, as the Padres come into town. That game carries a lofty 12.5 run total and will feature temperatures in the low-90s at first pitch. Expect plenty of DFS action to land there today. When it comes to weather, it currently seems as if we’ll only have one game to keep an eye on this evening (CHC @ CIN). I always love a slate where weather-related headaches can be kept to a minimum! Alright, let’s get the ball rolling and make some bread today, shall we?

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

As noted in the intro, there is only one spot to really keep an eye on today.

Best hitting conditions: CHC @ CIN, SD @ COL

Best pitching conditions: ATL @ MIA, BAL @ TB, PIT @ LAD

CHC @ CIN (7:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): With the potential for rain in the early/mid innings, we could see a delay or late start here. Things clear up later in the evening (if it even rains at all) so the only way I see a PPD scenario is if they just don’t feel like waiting until 9 or 10 pm ET to get going. As of now, I won’t be fading this game in the newsletter.

CLE @ MIN (8:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): Warm-ish temps in the low-80s with winds blowing in from right at 10+ mph. Bit of a downgrade to HR potential here.

SD @ COL (8:40 ET, 12.5 O/U): 90-degree temps in Coors Field never hurts the offensive upside.

NYM @ SF (9:45 ET, 8.5 O/U): As usual, I must mention that Oracle Park is designed to mitigate wind impacts and it will be cool with temperatures in the low-60s. But 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left could help bats juuuuust a bit.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Gerrit Cole (RHP), NYY | DK: $10.9k, FD: $11.4k | vs. LAA

I have no issues going to Kevin Gausman ($10.1k/$10.3k) up top either. And, despite the risks with Cole coming off the COVID IL (pitch limitations? Lingering side effects from COVID?), there is still plenty of potential for him to have a solid game today. He was averaging 102 pitches/gm in his previous five starts and it isn’t as if he’s been on a massive layoff, having last pitched 19 days ago. He’s certainly experienced more inconsistency this season than what we’ve come accustomed to seeing in previous years, and there of course was plenty of buzz about his reduced spin rate following the ‘sticky stuff’ crackdown. However, he’s shown that he is still capable of 10+ strikeout upside and he continues to lead all pitchers today with a huge 34.4% kRate (38.2% kRate L5Gms). Despite having the ever-dangerous Shohei Ohtani atop the order, the rest of the Angels lineup has been massively struggling lately. In the last two weeks vs. RHPs, the Angels have posted only a 79 wRC+ (ranks 24th) and .284 wOBA (24th) with a high 25.7% kRate. As a team, they’re also averaging nearly a run less on offense when on the road this year -- their 4.97 runs/gm at home ranks 9th, however their 4.07 runs/gm on the road ranks 21st in the MLB. Vegas is pinning a slate-low 3.5 implied runs on LAA today while giving the Yankees huge -290 odds to win.

Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.4k, FD: $7.9k | @ MIA

The mid-range is a little suspect today but I’d say if you want to look for a decent ‘floor’ pitcher around this price point, LHP Wade Miley ($8.2k/$8.8k) will be in a quality spot against the watered down but still strikeout happy Cubs -- though, beware, while they have struck out a league high 30.2% vs. LHPs in the last two weeks, they’re also accounting for a .357 wOBA and 124 wRC+ in that span as well. Miley also isn’t the biggest strikeout guy either (18.5% kRate) and has been inconsistent as of late.

Toussaint carries some risk, but I have a fair amount of faith in him in this spot against Miami. Braves pitchers Huascar Ynoa (hand) and Ian Anderson (shoulder) are not far off from returning from the IL, so if Toussaint wants to show that he deserves to keep his role in the rotation moving forward, today would be the day for him to prove his mettle. He of course only has five starts this season, and he got his 2021 campaign off to a great beginning when he locked down the Padres and Phillies in his opening two appearances. He has shown decent strikeout potential (24.1% kRate) alongside a solid 1.17 WHIP and a not-terrible 4.18 xFIP (4.28 ERA). However, when he gets hit, he gets hit HARD. He is last among all pitchers today with a 92.4 mph average exit velocity and 50.7% HardHit%. Perhaps he can take advantage of a match-up with a Miami Marlins offense that, despite playing better recently, has been a below average offense in the long term. On the season vs. RHPs, they’re batting .241 with a .302 wOBA, 92 wRC+, and 25.1% kRate. They also haven’t created a ton of hard contact against righties (30.9%, ranks 26th), which should help out Toussaint given his tendency to get hit hard. The Braves have been making a second half push for the NL East division title, and have gone 10-2 in their last dozen games while often providing their SPs with plenty of run support. Marlins Park is a strong pitching environment and Miami currently holds a low 3.8 implied run total today.

Josh Fleming (LHP), TB | DK: $6.5k, FD: $6.6k | vs. BAL

Fleming will absolutely be a contrarian GPP only punt play as he comes off of a game where he got demolished by the Red Sox (3.1 IP, 11 H, 6 BB, 10 ER, -16.7 DKFP). However, that game was on the road, where he has struggled massively this year. He’s been much, MUCH better when pitching at home.

Away Splits: 41.1 IP, 8.06 ERA, 4.95 xFIP, .333 AVG, .396 wOBA, 1.72 WHIP, 10.2% kRate, 1.74 HR/9

Home Splits: 49.1 IP, 2.37 ERA, 3.72 xFIP, .190 AVG, .231 wOBA, 0.99 WHIP, 20.5% kRate, 0.36 HR/9

Those are some serious “night and day” numbers. The Rays are expected to deploy Collin McHugh as their opener today, and he should pitch at most two or three innings. Fleming is set to be utilized as the ‘long reliever’ behind McHugh and could pitch as many as five or six innings. Since McHugh won’t pitch the required five innings a starter needs to earn a win, there’s a decent chance Fleming could instead qualify for the win bonus if he pitches well enough in his time on the mound while Tampa Bay maintains a lead -- he is 6-3 at home this season and the Rays have strong -255 odds to win this game. Baltimore is not bad against LHPs, but they’ve been much less dangerous when on the road and they offer up plenty of strikeouts. Today, the Orioles will possess only a 3.6 implied run total. If Fleming gets rocked in this spot, then I’ll just put a big red X on him for the foreseeable future.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Both sides of the Coors Field match-up are firmly in play given the 90 degree temperatures and the high 12.5 implied run total. So, expect plenty of attention to fall on the San Diego Padres and Colorado Rockies. Behind those two teams, there aren’t any offenses that stand out in a massive way to me today.

Secondary Stacks

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

Brault is by no means a bad pitcher in my opinion, but he’ll be tasked with slowing down an uber talented group of Dodger hitters tonight. At the time of this writing, we’re still probably a couple of hours out from getting the LAD starting lineup. The Dodgers did just play a late game on Sunday Night Baseball last night in New York and will be flying cross country back to LA for their game today. So, there is potential we’ll see some of the big veteran bats getting a day off today. However, if they’re essentially at full strength, then fire ‘em up. LAD is an excellent offense at home and if they can knock Brault out early, they’ll see at-bats against a Pirates bullpen that has been really bad lately -- their 4.96 xFIP over the last month is the 3rd highest in the MLB and they’ve accounted for a league-worst 1.58 WHIP in that span as well.

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

After a few decent starts in mid/late July, Matt Harvey has started to regress again and no one is surprised. He holds a slate-high 6.10 ERA on the year alongside a 4.84 xFIP and 1.56 WHIP. The Rays have also simply owned the Orioles this year, In 12 games against them, Tampa Bay is 12-1 and has scored 94 runs (7.8 runs/gm) including an incredible 51 XBH (21 doubles, 5 triples, 25 home runs). They’re hitting .298 against this pitching staff with a .387 wOBA, .241 ISO, and 153 wRC+. Their bigger games against the O’s have come at the much more hitter-friendly Camden Yards. But the Rays have been hitting nearly everyone well lately and deserve some stack consideration against Harvey and a bad Baltimore bullpen.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

San Francisco Giants vs. Rich Hill (LHP), NYM

With Coors Field on the docket, there are going to be some good offenses in nice match-ups that go way under-owned (the Yankees and Astros are a couple that come to mind). I’d expect Giants bats to have, at most, 5-10% ownership. They’ll face a Mets team that just got mashed by the Dodgers 14-4 on Sunday Night Baseball last night and now travel cross country to face a tough San Francisco team. Rich Hill had some decent games earlier in the year, but whether it’s fatigue or age catching up to him, he just has not shown much promise on the mound as of late. In his last five starts, he has acquired a 4.94 ERA with only a 12.7% kRate. He’s also allowing a 30% Line Drive % and 45% Fly Ball % over the last month. Oracle Park tends to favor pitchers, but that hasn’t stopped the Giants from accounting for a .342 wOBA (ranks 5th) and 118 wRC+ (ranks 2nd) at home this season. They’ll have some helpful winds at their back today as well. I would prioritize Buster Posey and Kris Bryant in most any Giants stack today in order to take advantage of the righty vs. Lefty splits.

One-Off Bats ☝️

SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.5k | vs. Antonio Senzatela (RHP), COL

2B/SS Trea Turner | DK: $5.5k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Steven Brault (LHP), PIT

OF Aaron Judge | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Jose Suarez (LHP), LAA

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k | vs. (unconfirmed) Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

OF Yordan Alvarez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

OF Randy Arozarena | DK: $4.1k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

C/1B Buster Posey | DK: $4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Rich Hill (LHP), NYM

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

OF Michael Brantley | DK: $3.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Carlos Hernandez (RHP), KC

1B/OF Connor Joe | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. (unconfirmed) Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

C Yan Gomes | DK: $2.8k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Dallas Keuchel (LHP), CWS

2B/3B Luis Arraez | DK: $2.7k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Wade Miley (LHP), CIN

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B CJ Cron | DK: $4.8k, FD: $4k | vs. (unconfirmed) Ryan Weathers (LHP), SD

I’m cheesing it up a bit by taking a Coors Field bat, but I’m just trying to start off the week with a bomb call that has a strong chance to hit! Prior to Colorado’s six game road trip, CJ Cron posted two double dong games within his last three starts at Coors Field. Ryan Weathers has not been confirmed as the Padres starter today, but he’s currently the most probable guy to take the mound. Cron has a huge .283 ISO and 21.2% HR/FB Rate vs. LHPs this season while Weathers has given up 2.05 HR/9 to RHBs in 2021 (and has allowed three HRs in two of his last three games). With the hot temperatures out in Colorado today, we should see a few home runs fly over the fence. Besides Fernando Tatis Jr., CJ Cron feels like perhaps the most likely hitter to go yard in this game today.

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

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