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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/14 | A Pitcher-esque Friday Slate
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/14 | A Pitcher-esque Friday Slate
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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A massive Friday slate rolls around to get our weekend started and there is no shortage of ways to attack this one. When it comes to the pitching options we have available this evening, this is arguably the deepest and most talented set of arms that we’ve seen on a single slate this season. Many of these pitchers have either three or four 2020 starts under their belt by now as well, so we’re starting to get a pretty strong sample size of innings and a solid idea of what we should come to expect when these guys take the mound. To further complicate the decision making today, we have the Texas Rangers visiting the Colorado Rockies 5,200 feet above sea level in Coors Field -- a match-up which easily sports the highest implied run total of the day (12.5 runs). Plenty of people will clearly want to stack up the expensive bats in that game, but will that entail sacrificing too much with pitching? Time will tell. This should be a fun one so let’s jump into the action!
Update: I actually just noticed that DraftKings is excluding the WAS @ BAL game from its main slate (FanDuel is including it). For the sake of consistency, I’ll focus on the 12 mutually shared games for this evening.
Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
NYM @ PHI: Slight chance of a late start with potential rain clearing around first pitch, but there should be no issues after that.
WAS @ BAL: A bit higher chance of a late start than they’ll have in Philly, but by all indications they should be able to get this game in after any rain clears.
KC @ MIN: One of the two games tonight with a noticeable amount of weather risk. Currently it looks like there’s around a 20-30% chance of storms rolling through the area which could lead to a lengthy delay & some potential for a postponement. Winds also swirling around 15 mph.
PIT @ CIN: Solid chance that a wave of storms comes through after first pitch. If the radar doesn’t seem favorable if/when those storms initially hit, a postponement can’t be ruled out. Keep a close eye on this game and the one in Minnesota as lock approaches!
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Aaron Civale (RHP) | DK: $9.3k, FD: $9.6k | @ DET
Civale has been one of the most consistent arms across the early portion of this season. He has eclipsed 20 DKFP/37 FDFP in all three of his starts and gets a strikeout-friendly match-up with the Detroit Tigers tonight. Civale has posted a 31.1% kRate this season with an excellent 2.49 xFIP while allowing a .236 AVG and .266 wOBA. You could also argue he’s been getting a bit unlucky as well, considering his .319 BABIP this season is considerably higher than the .266 BABIP he has posted in his brief career. As a result, Civale’s xwOBA (expected weighted on-base average) sits at .227. The Tigers have struck out 31.2% of the time against righties this season, which is the highest kRate versus RHPs in the league. They’re also producing just a .288 wOBA and 81 wRC+ against RHPs. Both figures rank 25th in the league. If you don’t want to pay all the way up for an ace like deGrom or Cole, Civale feels like a solid guy to invest in this evening. The Indians are also heavy -200 favorites so we should certainly expect Civale to have a great chance to position himself for a win, as long as that sputtering Cleveland offense can actually give him a bit of run support.
Framber Valdez (LHP) | DK: $8.8k, FD: $8.6k | vs. SEA
Priced just outside of all of the elite arm talent tonight, Valdez represents a somewhat riskier and less proven ‘boom/bust’ option. He is coming off of two excellent road starts against the Angels and Athletics where he racked for 17 Ks across 13.1 innings and allowed just one earned run, which came by way of a lead-off solo shot homer from Marcus Semien. Without fans in the stands, it’s a bit hard to judge just how much a home vs. road advantage/disadvantage factors into a players performance, particularly when it comes to pitchers, but Valdez has shown noticeably better splits when pitching in Houston at Minute Maid Park, which is something to keep in mind. The Mariners are a team that have shown significant struggles against south paw pitchers as well. In 128 at-bats versus LHPs this season, they are hitting just .180 with a .253 wOBA, .109 ISO, and 62 wRC+. If their struggles with lefties continue, Valdez could be in for a solid night. Houston is also a very heavy -220 favorite.
Others to Consider: Honestly, the pitching on this slate is so deep, you can make a compelling argument for basically any guy priced above $8k on both DK and FD. One value arm that I’m intrigued by (for GPPs) is RHP Spencer Howard (DK: $4k, FD: $5.5k) vs. NYM. Howard had a bit of a rough go in his MLB debut versus the Braves (4.2 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 4 ER, 4 K on 81 pitches) but he is one of the top young pitching prospects in baseball and will get a chance to redeem himself against a slightly easier opponent in the Mets. In brief stints across multiple minor league levels, Spencer posted a 30+% kRate with a very solid xFIP and didn’t give up many HRs. For minimum price (for a pitcher), Spencer could be worth punting as a PT/$ play, especially if you're looking to jam in a bunch of Coors bats and other high-dollar hitters.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
Chalk Stacks: Rockies, Rangers, Yankees, and Twins stand out as likely chalk stack candidates tonight. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking players from these teams because they're in great spots, but simply expect higher ownership.
Oakland Athletics vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF
Through four starts and 18.1 IP this season, Cueto’s 5.97 xFIP quite easily rates out as the worst mark among today’s starting pitchers. Cueto hasn’t pitched more than 5.2 innings yet this season so the Giants bullpen could come into play for a good portion of this game. They’ve been one of the worst relief units in baseball with a 5.47 xFIP, 1.73 HR/9, and a low 18.6% kRate. The way the A’s lineup is built, they are always worth stack consideration as long as you are aware that there is about an equal likelihood that they’ll either score three runs or less, or explode for 8+ runs with multiple homers. There’s plenty of power on this Oakland team so multiple stack combinations will make a lot of sense on paper.
New York Mets vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), PHI
While I do think Howard is an intriguing cheap pitching option with some realistic strikeout upside, the fact is that it is normally better to stack offenses against a young, inexperienced pitcher than it is to play him. Also, a big plus with a Mets stack is the opportunities they’ll have against a poor Phillies bullpen that has allowed a ton of base runners and home runs. The Philly relievers have posted an abysmal 2.04 WHIP (worst in MLB) while giving up 2.74 HR/9 (also worst in MLB) and their 42.1% HardHit% is the second highest percentage in baseball. I’m not sure if the Mets will fly under the radar but the potential is there for a strong offensive showing tonight.
The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
Los Angeles Angels vs. Clayton Kershaw (LHP), LAD
On a slate with such a stacked set of pitchers, the unpredictable laws of baseball likely means that at least one or two of these talented arms gets clobbered tonight. While it isn’t the most plausible scenario, it could definitely happen to Kershaw, who is coming off of a start where he allowed three home runs and seven hits to the San Francisco Giants across 4.1 IP. When any team features a three-man power hitting combo with the likes of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, and Shohei Ohtani, you have to at least be aware that they could go off at anytime against anyone.
One-Off Hitters ☝️
SS Fernando Tatis Jr. | DK: $5.6k, FD: $4.3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI
To say Tatis has Kelly’s number could be an understatement. He has three home runs off of him in just eight plate appearances and Kelly’s eight barreled balls (13.3% Barrel%) this season is the highest figure among today’s starting pitchers. Tatis has posted goose eggs in back-to-back games heading into tonight’s match-up in Arizona, but he is definitely not the sort of baseball player who will stay down for long.
2B/OF Garrett Hampson | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Lance Lynn (RHP), TEX
Since moving to the lead-off spot on August 7th, Hampson has enjoyed quite a bit of success. In those six games (26 at-bats), Hampson is hitting .346 with a double, two triples, and a home run alongside a 175 wRC+. Lance Lynn has been pretty dominant this year while posting a 1.16 ERA through four starts but his 4.03 xFIP and .174 BABIP indicates that the regression monster is coming. Coors Field is obviously a pitcher’s least favorable park to pitch in, so we could see that regression hit tonight.
OF Byron Buxton | DK: $3.5k, FD: $3k | vs. Jakob Junis (RHP), KC
I’m probably pushing my luck mentioning Buxton again after he blasted two solo shots on Wednesday. But he’s now up to five home runs in his last seven games and still carries very affordable salaries with tremendous upside. In just 10 plate appearances against Junis, he already has a pair of home runs against him and, overall, Buxton is batting .319 over his last 20 games with a .729 wOBA+ISO. Minnesota is home tonight, so that could steal an extra at-bat away from Buxton since he’ll be slotted in at the back of the order. But when a hitter’s bat is this hot for this cheap, it only makes sense to target him until he cools off.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
3B Matt Chapman | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Johnny Cueto (RHP), SF
I went with an A’s bat for my home run call a few days ago and unfortunately I picked the wrong Matt. That night (Aug. 10th), Chapman ended up double-donging against the Angels so, given my luck with the HR calls this season, expect a big night out of Olson. As for Chapman, he’s clearly swinging a hot bat, with four dingers in the last week and in his last 20 games versus RHPs (68 plate appearances), Chapman has posted a lofty .415 ISO. I’m feeling pretty good about his chances of getting ahold of one at the expense of Cueto or one of the Giants relievers.
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