Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 8/14 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 8:36 Afternoon Games

• 16:36 Will Nola Bounce Back?

• 18:09 Fire Up the Mariners

• 19:44 Kershaw @ Miami

• 21:25 Keuchel vs. Mets

• 25:50 Dakota Hudson on DK

• 27:48 Angels & Pirates Bats

• 30:13 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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So much for Miami being a pitcher's park. I'm kidding of course. It still is but evidently that does not apply to the Los Angeles Dodgers who had six home runs last night including back to back dingers two different times. They collected 13 extra base hits and completely ran over the Marlins 15-1. Los Angeles didn't record their first single of the game until two outs in the ninth inning! They are now the first team to reach 80 wins this season and appear primed for another run at the World Series for the third consecutive year.

It's Wednesday, which means small slate time - six games to be exact. We will talk a little throughout today's article about finding less obvious places to differentiate your lineups in tournaments on smaller slates. Too often I see people make the mistake of fading the guaranteed points on these slates just because they are worried about ownership. You have to lock in the points where it makes sense to do so. There are always going to be spots you can find that will give your lineup upside where others don't see it. Here’s a look at the Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook

Today's weather looks pretty quiet. There is a chance of rain in Philadelphia again but as of now it looks like it will mostly hold off until after the game. It's hot, pushing 90 degrees, in both Atlanta and Los Angeles today. Each park also is forecast for slight winds blowing toward the outfield. You can give a bit of a boost to the bats in those games but I wouldn't weight it very heavily. Overall, there's not much to worry about here provided that rain doesn't change in Philly.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Clayton Kershaw, LAD | DK: $11.8K, FD: $12K | LHP | @ Miami

It's going to be difficult to pivot away from Kershaw today. It's a small slate and the options are extremely limited. The only person with any chance of coming close to him is Nola and he's got a tough test against the Cubs. This is likely a slate where you just lock in the points here and find other places to differentiate your lineup. He's looked like "vintage" Kershaw more recently. Since the start of July he's had six starts and is 4-0 with an extremely impressive 1.66 ERA (3.62 SIERA), 0.97 WHIP, and 32% strikeout rate. He's had nine or more strikeouts in four of those six starts while allowing just a total of seven earned runs in 38 innings. The only downside here is a 51.1% hard contact rate allowed, which is pretty surprising considering the rest of the stats, but he's managed to avoid that causing any damage. He's given up just two home runs during this stretch. You are all aware by now just how bad this Miami lineup is. They are dead last in home runs (99), 29th in runs scored (428), and 29th in RBI (415). As an added bonus, Kershaw is even on an extra day of rest after originally being slated to start last night but having it pushed back instead.

Marco Gonzales, SEA | DK: $8.7K, FD: $7.7K | LHP | @ Detroit

Another one that feels rather obvious but is going to be hard to ignore is Gonzales against the Tigers. Playing pitchers against Detroit has been a profitable strategy all season long and there is no need to stop here. I just finished mentioning several reasons why we should play pitchers against Miami. Well, Detroit isn't much better. In fact, you could argue they are worse. They are 29th in home runs (108), dead last in runs score (423), and dead last in RBI (400). That's right, the Tigers are actually worse in two of those three categories. Against left-handed pitching this season they have a .317 wOBA, .145 ISO and strikeout 25.4% of the time - good for fifth most in the league. Gonzales just faced this lineup a few weeks ago on July 27th and went seven strong innings allowing six hits, just one earned run, with zero walks and eight strikeouts. He's also coming off a very impressive outing his last time out against Tampa Bay where he went 6.1 innings allowing seven hits, two earned runs, and striking out nine - tying his season high. Not typically known for his strikeout upside, he's had eight or more punch outs in two of his last three starts. In addition, he's only gone less than six innings just once since the start of July and that one time was a very challenging match up against the Astros.

Dillon Peters, LAA | DK: $6.3K, FD: $7.1K | LHP | vs. Pittsburgh

I'm honestly still trying to decide if my interest in Peters stems more from his last couple of starts, which have been strong, or just how bad the Pirates have been over the past month. We'll start with Peters who, since becoming part of the rotation on July 21st, has turned in four pretty impressive starts. During this span he owns a 3.18 ERA (4.35 SIERA), 1.28 WHIP, 20.4% strikeouts and 5.4% walks. He seems to be getting a little better with each passing start including his best one yet, last time out, against the Red Sox where he went six innings allowing five hits, three earned runs, and striking out eight. If those numbers aren't enough to grab your attention, let's shift our focus to his opponent today, the Pirates. Heading into the All-Star break, Pittsburgh was only one game below .500 and just 2.5 games out of the National League wildcard. After the break they've gone 5-24 and have dropped to 20 games below .500. This is a great opportunity to get a pitcher at a very low price point who has shown increased productivity in his recent starts facing a team who is down and out, counting down the days until the season ends. If Peters puts up anything close to his last couple of starts, which he should be able to in this match up, he'll have a great return on his salary.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Seattle Mariners vs. Edwin Jackson, DET

Apparently Jackson's one start, against the Royals no less, was enough to convince the Detroit brass to keep him in the rotation. Perhaps they overlooked the fact that he owns a 9.35 ERA (5.70 SIERA), 1.96 WHIP, only 13.6% strikeouts, and is allowing 42.6% hard contact this season. I doubt he gets too many more opportunities (although Detroit is technically the worst team in baseball so I guess it doesn't matter) so we should take advantage of this one and get some bats in the lineup against him. The Mariners aren't an overly impressive team themselves and normally this late in the season I will do what I can to avoid teams no longer in the hunt, but on a six game slate it's tough to completely avoid. Kyle Seager is my top option from this team and that would have been the case even if he didn't put up a ridiculous 50 fantasy points last night with three home runs! He owns a .879 wOBA+ISO against right-handed pitching in his last 41 plate appearances. Vogelbach, on the season, owns a .646 wOBA+ISO and 25 home runs against right-handed pitching. He's really cooled off down the stretch but we know he's capable of producing. The Mariners have an implied run total today of 5.3 runs, which says a lot considering they are a last place team.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Brad Keller, KC

There was a brief stretch of four games during the month of July where Keller started gaining momentum and won four of five starts. But then you notice that three of those five starts were against Detroit, the Chicago White Sox, and the Toronto Blue Jays (prior to Bo Bichette being called up) and realize he may have been more lucky than good during that period. Since then, in his last three starts, he's 0-3 and has allowed eleven earned runs (including five home runs) in only 20 innings of work. Paul Goldschmidt is still too cheap. In his last 72 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he owns a .777 wOBA+ISO with seven home runs. Ozuna, in a similar sample size (68 PA), has a .653 wOBA+ISO with four home runs. Dexter Fowler has put up fantasy points in eleven straight games now including double-digit production in two of his last four. The Cardinals have a solid 5.3 implied run total tonight.

Atlanta Braves vs. Steven Matz, NYM

Steven Matz averages 96.9% less fantasy points on the road. Think about that for a minute. 96.9%. I didn't believe it when I saw this on LineStar this morning so I took a quick look myself. Matz's last five performances at home by DraftKings scoring: 24, 40, 17, 28, 18. I threw out his score on June 29th (4) because he was pulled after 2.1 IP due to injury. Now, let's take a look at Matz' last five performances on the road by DraftKings scoring: 2, 17, 5, -10, -1. He has three games this season where he finished with negative DraftKings points and all of them came while pitching away from home. He's on the road tonight against a tough Braves lineup that has a .338 wOBA and .206 ISO against left-handed pitching this season. The switch hitting Albies has a monster 1.152 wOBA+ISO in his past 20 starts against a lefty. Acuna has a .803 wOBA+ISO during that same span. Josh Donaldson has a .603 wOBA+ISO against lefties this season. These guys stand out as top targets. Culberson and Duvall are cheaper upside options who smash lefties but have a much lower floor. Freddie Freeman has solid numbers against lefties despite the difficult lefty versus lefty match up. Matz, in the past has been absolutely lights out against left-handed hitting, but in his last 20 starts has a 5.09 ERA and 1.64 WHIP and is allowing 2.12 FP/PA against left-handed hitters. People may leave Freeman out of their stacks today so this is one, less obvious, spot where you could potentially differentiate yourself on this smaller slate.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

J.T. Realmuto, PHI | DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K | C | vs. Cole Hamels

Typically, I don't pay up at catcher (or roster one on FanDuel) but as we've discussed throughout today's article, the key to small slates is finding little ways to differentiate yourself in tournaments without sacrificing obvious points. Paying up at catcher (or using one on FanDuel) is one way we can do that. Realmuto has six double-digit fantasy games so far in the month of August including three of his last four. He's a top 15% hitter against left-handed pitching with 2.23 FP/PA and he even has a very small history (12 plate appearances) of success against Hamels including a .598 wOBA+ISO. As an added bonus, the Cubs bullpen is 27th against right-handed bats allowing 2.4 FP/PA.

Todd Frazier, NYM | DK: $4.1K, FD: $3K | 3B | vs. Dallas Keuchel

Keuchel has made his money (especially this season) on being a massive ground ball pitcher. He's never been a big strikeout guy but he always did a great job of eating innings, keeping the ball in the yard, and limiting damage. Perfect for a back end of the rotation type of player. Well, since joining the Braves he's struggled with this so far. He hasn't allowed 20 home runs in a full season in the last seven years but has already given up 11 in just his 10 starts so far this year. This is a nice park shift for Frazier going to Atlanta and hitting conditions should be ideal tonight with hot and humid temperatures expected and even a slight breeze blowing out. In the past 20 games, Frazier has struggled a bit, but in the 12 plate appearances against a lefty during that span, he has a .990 wOBA+ISO and 3.07 FP/PA.

Jorge Soler, KC | DK: $5.1K, FD: $4.1K | OF | vs. Dakota Hudson

Soler got a ton of love yesterday and came back down to earth going 1-2 with a walk and putting up just seven fantasy points. This is another example of a less obvious spot where we can differentiate on a small slate. While everyone else hops off today we should hop back on. One game won't necessarily stop his momentum as he still has four double-digit fantasy performances in his last six games. In the past two weeks he has an absurd 53.3% hard contact rate, 101.1 mph average exit velocity, and seven barreled balls. In has last 64 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, he's hit seven home runs and has a .932 wOBA+ISO.

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Best of luck today!

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