Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

🔊 8/13 On Deck podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney

• 4:52 Cubs @ Phillies

• 8:05 Stacking Yankees

• 10:29 Buying Blue Jays

• 12:20 Clevinger or Sale?

• 16:00 Detroit at Home

• 19:48 Spending Up For Twins

• 22:32 Jack Flaherty @ KC

• 25:54 Bumgarner vs. A’s

• 27:48 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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For the second night in a row, Carlos Santana provided some late inning magic against division rival Minnesota. Two nights ago, it was a go-ahead grand slam in the 10th inning allowing Cleveland to tie the Twins for first place in the AL Central. Last night, with one swing of the bat, he put one in the seats and the Indians walked off with sole possession of first place. As our very own Chris Meaney (@chrismeaney) pointed out on Twitter last night, the Indians are 43-17 since June 3rd, the best record in baseball during that span. We’ll see if they can keep it going tonight in an awesome match up against the Red Sox with Chris Sale and Mike Clevinger dueling it out in what should be a great game to watch.

The hardest working man in DFS, Ryan Humphries, is taking a couple of well-deserved days off this week as he preps for his weekly NFL and College Football articles in the coming weeks. So, unfortunately for you guys, you’re stuck with me for the next couple of days. Today brings a full 15 game slate with plenty to talk about, so let’s jump in. Here’s a look at the Vegas lines:

IMPORTANT: DraftKings has now removed the Houston/Chicago game from their main slate AND Clayton Kershaw has been scratched against the Marlins today.

Weather Outlook

The weather has a few red flags to keep an eye on. There is rain in the forecast along the east coast which may impact the games in Washington, Philadelphia, and New York. All of these currently carry a low PPD risk for the moment but keep in mind I'm writing this about twelve hours before lock so a lot can change between now and then. Be sure to leave yourself time to check updated weather before locking in rosters. Outside of the rain threats, Atlanta is going to be in the 90s today so give a boost to the bats in the heat. This is also a Coors slate and the temperature at first pitch is expected to be 86 degrees which will provide an additional boost the bats don’t need in that ballpark. That game is currently at a 12 O/U and is likely to increase.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Jack Flaherty, STL | DK: $9K, FD: $8.9K | RHP | @ Kansas City

I had Flaherty pegged at $10K today on DraftKings and was surprised (shocked) to see his price actually dropped $400 after putting up 32.8 fantasy points against the Dodgers his last time out. He’s on an absolute roll right now, allowing a total of six runs in his last six starts despite three of those coming against first place teams. Here are his last three outings:

• 8/7 @LAD: 7 IP, 4 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, and 10 strikeouts

• 8/1 vs. CHC: 7 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 2 walks, and 9 strikeouts

• 7/26 vs. HOU: 6 IP, 3 hits, 2 runs, 1 walk, 9 strikeouts

That’s a total of eight hits, two runs allowed, and 28 strikeouts in 20 innings of work against three division leaders. Impressive is an understatement. Since the All-Star break he has a 0.86 ERA (3.11 SIERA), 0.83 WHIP, and 36.1% strikeouts. While, ultimately, he won’t be able to keep up this pace long term, I don’t have any reason to believe he can’t keep it going against the Royals today who own just a .307 wOBA, .161 ISO, and 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Kansas City is just 3-7 in their last ten games and are a whopping 28.5 games out of first in the AL Central division. You can make a serious case that Flaherty, given his recent track record, could go toe to toe with any of the top tier pitchers today in terms of floor/ceiling but comes with significant savings. Of course now Kershaw and Cole are both gone from this slate, now making Flaherty a more obvious option today.

Dustin May, LAD | DK: $7.5K, FD: $5.8K | RHP | @ Miami

The Dodgers have elected to give their ace Kershaw, who's looking more like his old self recently, an extra day off and flip-flop him with Dustin May who will now start today instead. This immediately puts him in the conversation as a mid-tier option (value on FanDuel) against the weak Miami offense. May is 0-1 in his two starts so far with a 3.18 ERA (4.11 SIERA), 1.32 WHIP, and 21.1% strikeouts to just 2.1% walks. He's allowed over 50% hard contact, which is concerning, but we need to keep in mind that everything here is based off incredibly small sample sizes. He posted a 3.38 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and 110/29 K/BB ratio over 106.2 innings between Double and Triple-A earlier this year. He makes for a solid SP2 in cash today against this Marlins offense that has just a .285 wOBA, .127 ISO, and 77 wRC+ with 24.2% strikeouts this season. In tournaments, watch the ownership. If he becomes chalk (which is a real possibility) I would hedge with some Miami exposure at the very least. The most likely scenario here is May pitches well in a good match up. But given he's only two starts into his Major League career, there is a lot of uncertainty. So if you're multi-entering just make sure you protect yourself in case things don't go to plan.

Joe Ross, WAS | DK: $5.5K, FD: $7.1K | RHP | vs. Cincinnati Reds

The value tier is lacking viable options (hence why they are all inexpensive to begin with). My initial reaction is that Brett Anderson is one of the more likely options to get some love in this range. He has a strong match up against the Giants who are awful against left-handed pitching and their magical run to the playoffs has now slowed to a crawl going just 4-6 in their last ten games and falling back below the .500 mark. Anderson is an impressive 10-7 this season with a solid 3.99 ERA and respectable 1.27 WHIP. The issue with him is there is absolutely no upside. He has more than four strikeouts just twice all season (23 starts) and owns just a 12% strikeout rate. You’re essentially hoping he pitches a complete game shutout and gives up just a couple of hits in order for him to put up any kind of fantasy production. I also don’t mind Max Fried. Unsurprisingly, he’s the most expensive among the cheaper options today and has a tough draw against a surging Mets club. This is why I’d consider a pivot to Joe Ross in tournaments. He has had an interesting season to say the least. As a member of the bullpen, he’s been, well...let’s just call it not good. He has an 11.05 ERA and 2.11 WHIP across 18 appearances. Okay, fine. Not good is being nice. He’s been downright awful. As a starter (or bulk follow pitcher) however, he’s been much more effective including a 3.80 ERA and 22.6% strikeouts. He comes with plenty of risk but he’s also incredibly inexpensive and carries more upside than most of the pitchers in this under $7K range on DraftKings (he is too expensive on FanDuel). The Reds have struggled mightily on the road this season with just a 23-32 record, a .301 wOBA, and a .166 ISO. Ross isn’t going to win you the slate but with some momentum in his favor as a member of the rotation, a favorable match up, and an extremely reasonable price tag, he’s unlikely to kill your lineups either even if he doesn’t have his best outing of the season today. Just watch out for Aristides Aquino. I’m guessing the Reds don’t miss Yasiel Puig.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Coors Slate Disclaimer: It's another Coors slate and, as usual, we won't discuss here. You know you should have exposure to that game. It's going to be near 90 degrees and it currently has an O/U of 12. We'll focus on other teams I believe can match the offensive production we are likely to see here.

New York Yankees vs. John Means, BAL (LHP)

The Yankees make for a solid pivot off Coors today with a massive implied total against the lefty John Means. I'm going to do a deeper dive on Gio Urshela in the last section but he's swinging a very hot bat right now. DJ LeMahieu has a 1.103 wOBA+ISO in his last 29 at-bats against lefties. Cameron Maybin has 18, 32, and 16 fantasy points in his last three games against the Orioles. Aaron Judge is, well, Aaron Judge. Even the left-handed bats, which might get overlooked, have some solid numbers recently against left-handed pitching. Mike Ford has a whopping 1.579 wOBA+ISO and three home runs in just 11 plate appearances against lefties (obviously a very small sample size). Mike Tauchman has a .854 wOBA+ISO in his last 25 plate appearances against left-handed pitching. The Yankees should feast at home today.

Washington Nationals vs. Alex Wood, CIN

Assuming this game plays, I really like the Nationals here against Wood who will be making just his fourth start of the season after coming off the IL in late July. He’s hasn’t had great success so far with a 5.65 ERA (4.87 SIERA), 1.53 WHIP, only 17.5% strikeouts, and a whopping 49% hard contact allowed. He’s given up four home runs in those three starts and I expect more coming today. The Nationals are a top five offense against left-handed pitching with a .344 wOBA, .188 ISO, and 109 wRC+. Trea Turner has three double-digit fantasy performances in his last six games and averages 2.08 FP/PA against left-handed pitching. Anthony Rendon is one of the top bats available today with a .723 wOBA+ISO in his last 176 plate appearances against a lefty. He also has a .510 wOBA in 19 plate appearances against Wood.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Martin Perez, MIN

Unable to acquire starting pitching help at the trade deadline, the Twins have to be feeling the pressure after giving up the AL Central lead to Cleveland last night. Their road trip doesn’t get any easier now heading to Milwaukee to take on a difficult Brewers lineup. Martin Perez is in absolute free fall right now. He’s 0-2 in his last five starts and has given up an incredible 11 home runs (3.67 HR/9) during that span. He has a 6.67 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and is allowing 36.2% hard contact. I found this interesting article by Dan Szymborski on FanGraphs yesterday about how his cutter losing its “cut” and his fastball velocity dipping are the likely culprits for his late season struggles. The Brewers do not have the best numbers against left-handed pitching this season and Christian Yelich out of the lineup certainly leaves a massive hole but given Perez’s recent track record and all this data we have at our disposal, it’s difficult to not want to attack him with bats today, regardless of the opponent. Vegas seems to agree. Despite the less than ideal numbers the Milwaukee lineup has against lefties this season, they have a massive 5.6 implied run total tonight.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Chad Pinder, OAK | DK: $3.9K, FD: $3.3K | 2B/OF | vs. Madison Bumgarner

Pinder is always a great upside option for cheap money when facing a lefty. As an added bonus, he’s swinging a hot bat right now with 11.67 FPPG in his last three including a 20 point performance just a couple of nights ago. In the past two weeks he has an average exit velocity of 101.7 mph! In his last 23 plate appearances against a lefty he has an absurd 1.021 wOBA+ISO and 3.22 FP/PA. Oakland has a low implied total today, so I wouldn’t go full stack, but as a one-off or part of a two man Pinder makes a ton of sense today.

Bo Bichette, TOR | DK: $4.1K, FD: $3.9K | SS | vs. Lance Lynn

Bichette’s price dropped on DraftKings today and I already didn’t think it was high enough to begin with. I know Lynn is having an excellent season but there’s no way we can pass up the value here at just barely over $4K for a guy swinging the bat as well as he is. He collected another four hits last night including two doubles, making it fifteen extra base hits in 15 games since being called up. He owns a .495 wOBA, .348 ISO, and 2.64 FP/PA in his first 72 plate appearances at the major league level. Keep buying at this price.

Gio Urshela, NYY | DK: $5K, FD: $4.4K | 3B | vs. John Means, BAL

As I mentioned earlier in the stack section, Urshela is seeing the ball incredibly well right now. In fact, he has three games with 26 fantasy points or more in the past seven games AND six games with at least double-digit during that same span. In his last 37 plate appearances against left-handed pitching, he owns a 1.139 wOBA+ISO and a crazy high 3.78 FP/PA. If we look at a larger sample size, he has a respectable .588 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching in his last 147 plate appearances. It’s a great match up against a weak lefty in a big time hitter’s park, and the Yankees have a massive implied total at 5.8 runs. Just watch the weather.

Best of luck today!

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