Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

🔊 8/13 On Deck Podcast w/ KC Bubba & LineStarTyler

Subscribe Now 👉 Apple | Google | Spotify | iHeartRADIO | Stitcher

If you weren’t able to watch last night’s “Field of Dreams Game,” do yourself a favor and set some time aside soon to check out a replay. The MLB must be over the moon right now, because that game had to meet any and all expectations, and then some. It should check in as a legitimate ‘Game of the Year’ candidate and I honestly don’t believe you could have scripted it better. If you didn’t love every moment of that game, you just don’t love the game of baseball. Hell, most Yankees fans I’ve seen comment on the game came away content and just happy they were able to watch such a magnificent performance!

The entire game reminded me of a scene (shown below) from my personal favorite baseball movie, Moneyball. Near the end of the scene, Brad Pitt's character (then A's manager Billy Beane) says the quote written in today's newsletter title: "How can you not be romantic about baseball?"

Alright, moving onto this evening’s main slate! Sadly, today’s games feature 100% fewer cornfields than yesterday, but we’ll have a whopping 14 games to dive into and dissect. The slate as a whole possesses a nice balance of strong pitching as well as viable offensive options, which is always a welcomed sight to see. There will be a couple of weather situations to monitor, so be sure to stay vigilant on the forecast outlooks once we get closer to lock. Good luck today! Let’s start this weekend off with a bang!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There will be some storms to watch out for along the east coast this evening. As always, forecasts can change at the drop of a hat, especially in the summertime; so the games with weather concerns mentioned below could always end up playing completely unscathed. Worst-case scenarios resulting in postponements could also remain a possibility. And finally, there may be some games that have no obvious weather problems at the time of this writing, but will end up seeing some storms come out of nowhere and hit the ballpark. In an ideal world, we’ll get all 14 games played tonight but that’s not a guarantee at the moment!

Best hitting environments: ATL @ WAS, CIN @ PHI, BAL @ BOS,

Best pitching environments: CHC @ MIA, OAK @ TEX, SD @ ARI, TOR @ SEA

CIN @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Chance of a band of storms rolling through but not incredibly likely.

ATL @ WAS (7:05 ET, O/U TBD): Scattered storms could roll through and cause a delay. A postponement scenario probably can’t be completely ruled out. Also, if you’ve played MLB DFS for a while, you know to always be cautious when it comes to the Nationals and how they handle weather-related decision-making.

MIL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9 O/U): Probably looking at the highest weather risk here in Pittsburgh. A storm system will be threatening the area both before, during, and after this game is scheduled to be played. A delay at some point seems probable and a postponement won’t be out of the question either. Perhaps it ends up playing clean, but with plenty of other games to choose from, the risk is high enough here to where I will simply avoid mentioning any MIL/PIT players for the sake of this newsletter.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Robbie Ray (LHP), TOR | DK: $9.2k, FD: $10.7k | @ SEA

I wouldn’t consider the Mariners to be complete slouches like they were earlier in the season, but they haven’t exactly been lighting the scoreboard up either. They haven’t scored more than four runs in their last nine games and their 26.4% kRate vs. LHPs this year ranks as the 3rd highest kRate in the MLB. While his strikeouts are down a bit lately (24.2% kRate L5Gms), I would say having to play the Boston Red Sox (5th lowest kRate vs. LHPs) three times in a five-game stretch could be a contributing factor to that. Ray still has an excellent 30.2% kRate on the year and will be on the mound in one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in the league. He K’d up ten Mariner hitters when he faced them back on June 29th and will be one of the few pitchers on the slate who provides double digit strikeout upside.

Charlie Morton (RHP), ATL | DK: $8.3k, FD: $9k | @ WAS

Remember to watch out for the weather here. If the risk of an in-game delay seems high enough, it may be wise to avoid the starting pitchers in this game. Also, Morton is facing the Nationals for the second time in a span of six days, which is a situation that always adds a bit more risk to pitchers in my opinion. Ultimately, he’ll probably be a GPP only option for me today. But, Morton has shown a great floor lately and also leads all pitchers today with a 28.8% kRate over his previous five starts. Morton threw six scoreless innings versus the Nats this past Saturday while racking up seven Ks -- a performance that was good for 25 DKFP/43 FDFP. Morton throwing under 90 pitches in three consecutive starts is a trend that I’m not overly crazy about, but he’s no stranger to a 100+ pitch workload so the lower pitch counts recently could just come down to in-game situational baseball decisions.

Shane McClanahan (LHP), TB | DK: $7.8k, FD: $9.5k | @ MIN

McClanahan is clearly a better value on DK at $7,800, but you can argue that he has certainly pitched well enough to earn that $9,500 price tag on FD as well. The strikeout upside has always been there for McLanahan this year (28.1% kRate, 15.7% SwStr%) but the primary concern with playing him in DFS was his relatively low pitch count. Across the entire season (17 starts), McClanahan has averaged just 79.3 pitches/gm. But that leash has clearly been extended lately as he has averaged 90 pitches/gm over his last five starts. The Twins haven’t been striking out a ton (21.5% kRate vs. LHPs L2Wks) and McClanahan has shown some concerning statcast data lately. But I still like his chances of getting about seven or eight Ks and, despite the lack of strikeouts, the Twins have only hit .221 vs. LHPs over the last two weeks with a .284 wOBA and 79 wRC+ -- all three stats check in at 24th in the MLB in that span.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️

Ya gotta like the potential out of the Boston Red Sox today against Spenser Watkins and a bad O’s bullpen. The Tampa Bay Rays have also been borderline unstoppable lately (150 wRC+ last seven days, 55 runs scored) and draw a solid match-up against Michael Pineda. Also, if a postponement doesn’t look to be a likely outcome closer to lock, the Milwaukee Brewers will have some nice stack appeal as well.

Secondary Stacks

Cleveland Indians vs. Tyler Anderson (LHP), DET

Alexander has performed very poorly against RHBs this season -- 5.23 ERA, 5.13 xFIP, 1.50 WHIP, .364 wOBA, .211 ISO, and 1.74 HR/9 while striking out just 18.8% of hitters. Today he will have to take on a Cleveland lineup that is rolling out nine righties in their lineup. While Alexander did pitch well against Cleveland in fairly limited work last Saturday (5.1 IP, 62 pitches, 4 H, 4 K, 0 ER), any time a pitcher faces the same offense within the span of a week, the offense usually draws an edge.

Oakland Athletics vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

Of course, I recommend an A’s stack yesterday but went on to caution against running a full five-man stack because, while Oakland has often been posting solid 5-8 run performances, they rarely go off in a big way… then they decided to score 17 runs. Clearly, we’re not expecting that sort of production again today, and Dane Dunning has been a very serviceable starter who hasn’t allowed more than three earned runs in his last seven starts. But Dunning also doesn’t pitch very deep into games (75 pitches/gm L20Gms, 72 pitches/gm L5Gms) so once he is retired for the day, the A’s could see some extra at-bats against a Rangers bullpen whose 4.64 xFIP over the last month ranks as the seventh highest (worst) in the league. I would still likely prefer smaller two/three/four-man A’s stacks over a complete five-man but, who knows, maybe they explode again today.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

Flexen has seen a career resurgence in Seattle and, while he may not be the most consistent pitcher out there, he has posted plenty of quality outings this year. He has been giving up a lot of barreled balls while showing some very concerning statcast data lately and will have to contend with the formidable Blue Jays lineup today. It does seem odd to list the Blue Jays in this section considering they’re one of the best offenses in baseball, but with 27 other teams on the docket, the high salaries for the primary Toronto bats, and the general bias DFS players have against rostering offenses in West Coast games, I doubt many Blue Jays bats will exceed far beyond 10% ownership on this slate.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Starling Marte | DK: $6.1k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Dane Dunning (RHP), TEX

3B Rafael Devers | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Spenser Watkins (RHP), BAL

3B Jose Ramirez | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

OF Teoscar Hernandez | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Chris Flexen (RHP), SEA

2B Brandon Lowe | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Michael Pineda (RHP), MIN

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/2B/3B Aledmys Diaz | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP), LAA

OF Myles Straw | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.5k | vs. Tyler Alexander (LHP), DET

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $2.3k, FD: $3k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

OF DJ Stewart | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Nick Pivetta (RHP), BOS

1B Frank Schwindel | DK: $2k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Jesus Luzardo (LHP), MIA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/2B Max Muncy | DK: $5.4k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Tylor Megill (RHP), NYM

I’m officially declaring myself to be firmly within a serious home run call drought, but luckily Scott Bogman and KC Bubba’s picks have been coming through (and I believe Bubba has nailed three HR calls this week!) so some free LineStar swag is still being divvied out to some folks who have been retweeting the HR calls (tweet linked below). Hopefully, Max Muncy can help me out here today though.

While Muncy hasn’t posted any ceiling games recently, he still remains somewhat quietly a top 10 hitter in the league in terms of creating runs. His 153 wRC+ in 2021 ranks 7th among all hitters and his .268 ISO comes in ranking 9th. While Tylor Megill has been dominant against RHBs (1.33 ERA, 2.93 xFIP, .224 wOBA, .082 ISO, 0.67 HR/9) he has not fared well at all against lefty bats, like Muncy. Across 81 LHBs faced, Megill has amassed a 6.00 ERA, 5.39 xFIP, .364 wOBA, .243 ISO, and a 2.50 HR/9 Rate. Citi Field isn’t the best park for home runs but temperatures close to 90 degrees and near 10 mph winds blowing out to center field should help add a little more carry on hard hit fly balls. GET ONE TODAY MAX!

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

LineStar MLB Freeroll

We host an MLB freeroll on DraftKings every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday!

Click here to join the Friday freeroll!

1st Place wins $5 towards your lineups or a LineStar T-Shirt

Contact @LineStarApp on Twitter to claim your prize!

Use the image below as your DraftKings avatar to win 2x the prize!

🚨 Get 3 Free Months of LineStar Premium 🚨

Get 3-months of LineStar Premium for new users to SuperDraft who deposit/play $10!

Terms: Partnership offers do NOT renew. See SuperDraft landing page for full terms and conditions. Must be a new user to SuperDraft and deposit and play a minimum of $10 to qualify. If you have an existing LineStar Premium subscription you get a Hat/Tee/Pen combo instead of the 3-months.