Top MLB DFS Plays 8/12 | Is Tonight All About Offense?

August 12, 2020

By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter

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Wednesday brings us a nice mid-sized eight-game main slate to work with. To the relief of many, we don’t have to sweat over Coors Field decisions tonight, as that match-up falls on the small early game slate. Even without Coors on the docket, there is a decent chance that tonight’s games produce plenty of offensive fireworks. All eight match-ups carry an implied total of nine runs or higher. A primary factor behind all of these relatively high implied run totals is a lack of elite pitchers taking the mound. Plenty of tricky decisions to make in this one so let’s dive in!

Today’s match-ups with implied run totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook ☁️☀️

ATL @ NYY: Some decent chances for rain in the earlier innings of this game. It’s possible we could see a delay here but a postponement seems very unlikely.

WAS @ NYM: Since this game is also in New York, pretty much the same weather concerns mentioned above are in play here.

SEA @ TEX: Once again, if they don’t open the roof you can just disregard this. But if they announce that it will be opened, game time temps at first pitch will be right around 100 degrees and would provide a notable advantage to hitters.

BAL @ PHI: I think this is the main game to keep an eye on tonight when it comes to weather issues. The Philadelphia area will see some storms during the afternoon which could carry over into the time frame that this game is scheduled. Some sort of delay is possible and a PPD can’t 100% be ruled out, especially if the field is in poor condition from the earlier storms.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kenta Maeda (RHP) | DK: $9.1k, FD: $8.7k | @ MIL

As I sort of alluded to in the intro, pitching today is pretty murky. However, Maeda seems like one of the safer options you could choose to spend up on. Through three starts (17.0 IP), Maeda has posted a solid 3.42 xFIP while striking out 25.8% of hitters including a high 14.2% Swinging Strike Rate. He has given up just eight hits and two walks through his 17 innings, resulting in a 0.65 WHIP and .136 opponent batting average. The Brewers have been pretty lousy against RHPs this season. Against righties, they have just a .292 wOBA (ranks 25th) alongside an 83 wRC+ (ranks 25th) and they’re striking out 28.9% of the time. Maeda has thrown between 80 and 84 pitches in his three starts. While I’d like to see him stretched out to about 90-95 pitches, I still believe 80-85 pitches would be enough to produce value on a slate like this. The Twins are also a solid -145 favorite tonight so if he could pitch his way into that win bonus, even better.

Zach Eflin (RHP) | DK: $6.4k, FD: $7.3k | vs. BAL

First off, I just want to ask, why are there so many Zacks/Zachs on the mound today? Secondly, remember to keep an eye on the forecast for this game. Assuming the game plays with no issues, I can’t be the only one intrigued by Eflin when searching for some kind of potential value among today’s pitchers, right? While it is true that Baltimore is putting up strong numbers (.332 wOBA & 113 wRC+ vs. RHPs), Eflin did pitch four scoreless innings against the vaunted Yankees lineup in his season debut and secured 16 DKFP/27 FDFP. On a pretty ugly pitching slate like today, I’d happily take a similar result against the Orioles. Eflin was limited to 77 pitches in that game against the Yankees, so we could probably assume he may get stretched out to around 85 pitches today. Eflin is affordable and taking the mound for the second heaviest favored team on the slate (PHI -170).

Others to Consider: Zack Greinke (DK: $10.3k, FD: $9.8) vs. SF -- We’re still waiting on Greinke to pitch a gem but, from a talent perspective, he’s pretty much the class of the field (at least until Blake Snell gets back to seeing a full pitch count) today and gets a favorable match-up. Masahiro Tanaka (DK: $7.6k, FD: $8.3k) vs. ATL --Obviously a tough match-up with the Braves (.355 wOBA vs. RHPs ranks 1st) and a pitch restriction is a concern, but Tanaka looked excellent in his last start against Tampa Bay (5 IP, 1 H, 0 BB, 0 ER, 5 K -- 20.7 DKFP, 30 FDFP). But again, he was limited to 59 pitches in that game, so keep that in mind if you take the risk on him tonight.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Chalk Stacks: Without Coors, it’s a bit tricky to pinpoint the potential chalk today, but the Phillies and Yankees stand out as likely candidates to be highly owned. As always, there’s nothing wrong with playing guys from these teams. Just expect the higher ownership.

Houston Astros vs. Trevor Cahill (RHP), SF

Love ‘em or hate ‘em, the Astros are in one of the more favorable spots tonight among offenses. Cahill just recently got called up to take Jeff Samardzija’s (shoulder injury) spot in the order and will likely pitch four or five innings in his 2020 debut. Cahill was a pretty volatile starting pitcher last season before being relegated to a reliever role after the first couple months of the season. Teams were able to hit some long balls against him pretty regularly in 2019 and he ended up with a very high 2.70 HR/9 rate for the season. The Astros have shown to be a pretty average offense up to this point in the season (100 wRC+ vs. RHPs) but there are obviously some guys who can take advantage of this match-up. The Giants also have rolled out one of the worst bullpen in the league. Their 5.35 xFIP is the 3rd highest in the league and they’re giving up 1.76 HR/9 while striking out just 18.6% of batters.

Seattle Mariners vs. Jordan Lyles (RHP), TEX

The Mariners have shown some occasional pop here and there this season and could prove to be an affordable stack worth investing in tonight. Through three starts (11.1 IP), Jordan Lyles has a very poor 6.52 xFIP and has shown some control issues, as he has walked 16.3% of hitters (the exact same amount he is managing to strike out). If the Mariners tag Lyles up early, they’ll see some innings against a pretty poor Rangers bullpen that has a 4.86 xFIP this season (7th highest) and is walking 14% of batters. This Mariners stack gets an extra boost if they open up the roof in Texas tonight.

The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”

San Diego Padres vs. Tony Gonsolin (RHP), LAD

The Padres are far from the craziest stack most nights considering the amount of power their lineup possesses, but I doubt many people will be on them tonight (outside of maybe Tatis Jr. as a one-off). Many MLB DFS players just typically don’t often look to attack Dodger pitching, but no pitcher on this slate is untouchable tonight and San Diego could certainly tag up Gonsolin with ease.

One-Off Hitters ☝️

OF Bryce Harper | DK: $5.3k, FD: $4k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), BAL

The Phillies are in a prime spot tonight against Wade LeBlanc and Harper is coming in red hot off of back-to-back multi-hit games with a homer. Since the start of 2019, LeBlanc has allowed 2.82 HR/9 alongside a 7.94 ERA (5.22 xFIP) and a 1.67 WHIP. There’s a reason people will be on the Phillies tonight. Harper doesn’t struggle much at all in lefty-on-lefty match-ups, and in his last 150 games versus southpaws (208 PA), he has a .290 AVG with a .410 wOBA, .317 ISO, and 16 HRs. If you’re not stacking this team up, Harper seems like a worthy one-off to spend up on. Again, remember to check the forecast heading into this game.

3B/OF JD Davis | DK: $4.4k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Anibal Sanchez (RHP), WAS

Davis is having a strong season for the Mets. He’s hitting .330 on the year with a .408 wOBA and 162 wRC+. Looking at his Statcast Splits (2 Weeks), he’s creating 52.9% Hard Contact with an average exit velo of 93.2 mph. He has a favorable match-up against Anibal Sanchez tonight. Sanchez has only pitched 10.1 innings so far this season, so of course it’s a small sample size, but he’s allowing 44.4% Hard Contact and 52.8% Fly Balls. Davis rarely posts a goose egg and has no issues hitting righties (.319 AVG, .397 wOBA vs. RHPs last 150 games).

OF Byron Buxton | DK: $3.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Eric Lauer (LHP), MIL

Buxton is one of those guys often forgot about in the minds of DFS players because he is always slotted in at the tail end of the batting order. But he’s been rewarding those who have been willing to play him recently. Over the last week, Buxton is hitting .380 with three home runs and six RBI. He strikes out quite a bit but has bumped his average up to .309 over his last 20 games and is a threat to steal a base as well, which is always a plus. Since the Twins are on the road tonight, the fact that Buxton will bat 8th or 9th is less of a concern than usual since Minnesota is guaranteed to hit in the ninth inning (which could give Buxton an extra at-bat that he may not have gotten if MIN was at home). He’s made his case to be a worthwhile guy to target tonight and his DFS prices are very affordable.

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

C JT Realmuto | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Wade LeBlanc (LHP), BAL

Since Judge is not in the Yankee lineup tonight, I’m switching my home run call over to JT Realmuto who has knocked four balls over the fence in the last week. He’s posting a .273 ISO against lefties in his last 20 games alongside an average exit velo of 100.1 mph in the last two weeks. In 47 plate appearances against RHBs, LeBlanc is surrendering a .304 ISO, so Realmuto has a very strong chance to slug his sixth homer of the season tonight.

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