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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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We haven’t had one of these odd MLB DFS Thursdays in a while, but things are super ‘wonky’ today as far as the DraftKings and FanDuel slate alignments go. It is an awesome day for the sport of baseball, as the “Field of Dreams Game” is set to take place tonight at 7:15 ET between the White Sox and Yankees. Unfortunately, there is no real substantial evening main slate to cover with only four games beginning after 7 pm ET (and DK, for whatever reason, isn’t even including the Field of Dreams Game within their primary evening slate). So, we’re switching it up and circling back to the early slate for today’s newsletter. For the early games, we’re once again met with some game selection disagreement between DK and FD. On DK, eight games are included on the early slate (incl. Game 1 of the WAS @ NYM doubleheader), while only five are available in the FD slate (incl. Game 2 of the WAS @ NYM doubleheader) -- ultimately, only four games are mutually shared. All of this to say, we’ll be focusing solely on the early eight-game DraftKings slate today which will begin at 12:10 ET. Apologies to anyone who specifically plays on FanDuel, but it’s simply an odd set of circumstances we’re met with today!

With the wordy paragraph above explaining today’s whole scheduling kerfuffle aside, this will be an abridged edition of the ‘Daily Ledger’ in an effort to get this sent out to subscribers ASAP! I won’t be cutting corners on the groundwork behind the recommended plays below -- I just won’t be talking your head off as much… or at least trying not to (I’ve realized I’m not great at being short with words in these articles). So, let’s dive right into these early games!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

Do note that I am currently writing this article ~12 hours prior to the first match-up of the slate getting underway, so forecasts could easily change overnight. With all of these games being played midday while much of the country is experiencing a mid-August heat wave, you likely won’t be surprised that every game (aside from TEX @ SEA, the only indoor game on the slate) will feature temperatures ranging from “warm” to “sweltering hot.” Also, every outdoor game, aside from STL @ PIT, currently has winds forecasted to be blowing towards the outfield, so hitters clearly draw the weather advantage on this particular slate.

Check the LineStar Daily Dashboard page for the most up-to-date forecasts.

OAK @ CLE (1:10 ET, 9.5 O/U): As we’ve seen recently, summertime storm systems can of course pop up at any time when the weather is as hot/humid as it will be today but [at the time of this writing] this is the only game that carries any noticeable chance of precipitation. At the moment, the possibility for storms in the Cleveland area likely comes in the later innings, or even after this game should be over with, but double-check beforehand. Regardless, the bats should be safer than pitchers.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Brandon Woodruff (RHP), MIL | $10,200 | @ CHC

Woodruff’s teammate, Corbin Burnes, just tied an MLB record by striking out 10 consecutive batters (15 in total) last night against CHC. At this point, the watered-down post-trade deadline (and still) strikeout happy Cubs are simply too easy to target when they’re matched up with a talented pitcher. The Cubs have a league-high 30.6% kRate vs. RHPs the last two weeks and Woodruff has been K’ing up the opposition all season. Despite the high incoming ownership on him, I have zero issues spending up on the top priced arm on the slate.

Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS | $8,700 | vs. TB

Houck is only working with a 25.2 IP sample size this season, but he statistically leads all pitchers on the slate with a 34.3% kRate. He has also pitched his way to a 2.45 ERA and a superb 2.29 xFIP. His last four games have come against the same team in back-to-back starts twice (NYY & TOR), which is always a tough circumstance for a pitcher to deal with -- both NYY & TOR are solid offenses as well, especially those vaunted Blue Jays bats. Houck gave up only two earned runs in a 15.1 IP stretch in those four games. For $8,700, you would really like to see him consistently carry a much heavier workload (68 pitches/gm L5Gms -- high of 87 pitches, low of 49), but if this could be one of those days where he hits an 85+ pitch count threshold, there is some solid upside to be had. The Rays are no slouches on offense, but they offer up a high amount of K potential (25.8% kRate vs. RHPs L2Wks, 5th highest).

Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA | $6,700 | vs. TEX

It doesn’t always pay off, but attacking the Rangers with starting pitchers is often a solid strategy. In the last two weeks versus LHPs (121 plate appearance), they’re batting a lowly .198 with a .236 wOBA, .121 ISO, and league-worst 48 wRC+. Marco isn’t necessarily tearing it up this year, but he should offer a high pitch count floor. His 97.0 pitches/gm L5Gms trails only Woodruff on the slate and he’s landed at a 2.48 ERA in that span as well. At $6,700, if you can get anything over 15 DKFP out of him, I think you’d take it. There are still some money lines and game totals that need to be released, but at the time of this writing the Mariners are the heaviest favorites today (-194 ML) and Texas has just a 3.8 implied run total. It won’t be sneaky by any means, but Gonzales should be a go-to cheap value arm this afternoon.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

Baltimore Orioles vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

I’d view Matt Manning as the lowest quality pitcher on this slate and he’s last among all of today’s SPs with a 6.33 ERA (5.35 xFIP) and 1.55 WHIP. Opposing batsmen are also hitting for an average exit velocity of 91.3 mph against him (highest on the slate). The weather in Baltimore reads something like this: 95+ degrees, humid, a heat index as high as 111 degrees F, and light winds will be blowing out to center field. When the total in this game eventually comes out, I’m expecting it to land somewhere around 10.5 or 11 runs… and 12 runs, while unlikely, honestly would not surprise me. The O’s will still need to put the bat on the ball, but any fly ball should get some added length from those very hitter-friendly conditions (in an already hitter-friendly park). This is honestly just a good spot to roll out some full on game stacks with some Tigers bats included because I don’t have a ton of faith in Baltimore LHP John Means today either.

Oakland Athletics vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

Sidenote: I realized I said I’d be short with the wording of this newsletter, and yet I find myself yapping away. I guess I’m just terrible at being concise. So, with this A’s stack suggestion, I’m just going to (try to) cut straight to the gist. It’s a great match-up with Morgan, who has been giving up a ton of fly balls (54.5% FB%) and plenty of line drives (29.9% LD%, last month). The Cleveland bullpen is solid, but the A’s have good enough hitters to get after most any relief arms once Morgan is off the mound. Oakland has rarely gone off in a big way lately, but they can plate 5+ runs fairly consistently and many games will end in a few guys producing excellent fantasy outcomes. As such, I’d focus on two/three/four-man A’s stacks and hope to land on the right combo. I’m not really interested in full 5-man A’s stacks. There is more strong hitter-friendly weather in this game as well.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

New York Mets vs. TBD, WAS

Most people will fade this game entirely since it is a doubleheader game, which will of course only play seven innings (pending extras). While there is added risk and a cap on the normal 9-inning game upside, that also means super-low ownership on all bats here, and the Mets would be my preferred side of the match-up. NYM has been pretty terrible on offense lately, but they did post up eight runs on 13 hits against the Nats yesterday. Erick Fedde is currently the unconfirmed projected Washington starter here. Should he take the mound, there’s not much to be concerned about. He has a 6.75 ERA over his last five starts with a poor 1.54 WHIP, .290 AVG, and .354 wOBA. If the Mets can knock out Fedde early (or whoever ends up starting), they’ll see at-bats against a Nats bullpen that has easily ranked out as the worst bullpen in baseball over the last month (6.93 ERA, 5.24 xFIP, 1.64 WHIP, 18.2% kRate, 1.76 HR/9). Mets bats will be risky, but viable in GPPs.

One-Off Bats ☝️

2B/SS Trea Turner | $6,000 | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

OF Starling Marte | $5,800 | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames | $5,300 | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Cedric Mullins | $4,600 | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

1B Pete Alonso | $4,100 | vs. TBD (Erick Fedde?), WAS

2B Abraham Toro | $3,800 | vs. Mike Foltynewicz (RHP), TEX

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B Rowdy Tellez | $3,300 | vs. Kyle Hendricks (RHP), CHC

OF Adolis Garcia | $3,200 | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

OF Dylan Carlson | $3,100 | vs. JT Brubaker (RHP), PIT

OF Manuel Margot | $2,900 | vs. Tanner Houck (RHP), BOS

OF Anthony Santander | $2,600 | vs. Matt Manning (RHP), DET

OF Seth Brown | $2,300 | vs. Eli Morgan (RHP), CLE

3B Yonny Hernandez | $2,200 | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

2B/SS Trea Turner | $6,000 | vs. Ranger Suarez (LHP), PHI

He clearly can’t be knock too hard, since it’s only been a few games, but we’re still waiting on Trea Turner to knock out his first home run in a Dodgers uniform. He’ll have a solid chance to do that today against the Phillies in Citizens Park where it will be 90+ degrees all game with light winds blowing out to right. Ranger Suarez likely won’t pitch more than two or three innings in this game, but if Turner gets a couple ABs against him, he has accounted for a juicy .435 ISO vs. LHPs over his last 20 games. If the Phillies plan on rolling with a bullpen approach today, then that won’t hurt Turner’s HR chances much at all. That PHI bullpen has allowed 1.90 HR/9 over the last month, which is the second worst mark in the league behind only the Cubs (1.94 HR.9).

⬇️👇 RETWEET FOR A CHANCE TO WIN LINESTAR MERCH 👇⬇️

Note: Remember to follow @LineStarApp on Twitter. We post a tweet with mine (@Ryan_Humphries), KC Bubba’s (@bdentrek), and Scott Bogman’s (@BogmanSports) HR Call for each slate. If you throw out a retweet and one of those guys goes yard, you have a chance to win some free LineStar merch! Easy peasy.

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