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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/11 | Major Decisions to Make on the Mound
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/11 | Major Decisions to Make on the Mound
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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How about some of those run totals yesterday? Five of the 12 Monday MLB games saw a combined 15 runs or more. Hot, humid weather definitely helped contribute to some of those high scores, so it’s a good reminder to almost always give a bit of a boost to hitters in games that possess great hitting conditions.
A jam-packed 12-game Tuesday slate awaits us tonight and we’ll definitely have our work cut of for us when deciding what pitchers we’re going to elect to trust. Max Scherzer is the obvious stud in the field, but he is coming off of a game last Wednesday where he suffered a hamstring injury and was pulled after one inning and 27 pitches. He has recovered well enough to be lined up for a start tonight, but how much can we depend on him having a typical ~100 pitch workload? For his premium salaries, you absolutely would need him to be at least 80% of his usual self unless you like seeing your lineups fall down the leaderboard. That’s just one of many decisions we’ll have to take a stand on tonight. Let’s dive on into this thing!
Today’s games with implied run totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
Fortunately, there are no games that have a risk of postponement (or even delays) at the time of this writing. But let’s look at some match-ups that could see advantageous hitting conditions.
WAS @ NYM: Fairly warm (around 80 degrees) and humid with 10+ mph winds blowing out to left.
BAL @ PHI: Humid with warm temps in the 80s. Wind blowing out around 7 mph.
SEA @ TEX: If they have the roof closed tonight then you can ignore this. But they opened it up for the first time yesterday and we saw some solid scoring (12 runs). It was pretty much all Seattle but they did knock out three homers. If the roof is open again, local temps with be in the mid-high 90s! Those kind of temps easily help carry baseballs farther.
ARI @ COL: It’ll be around 90 degrees at first pitch. Winds blowing in multiple directions throughout this game but only about 5 mph. Just another day with favorable conditions for hitters at Coors Field.
TB @ BOS: Humid with more warm temps in the mid-80s and winds blowing 10-15 mph towards the Green Monster in left field.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Dylan Bundy (RHP) | DK: $9.7k, FD: $9.7k | vs. OAK
Oh boy. I cannot stress how nervous I am about trusting Dylan Bundy, but through three starts he has given us every reason to believe in him. Across his 21.2 innings pitched this season, Bundy has posted a spicy 2.08 ERA, 2.81 xFIP, 31.3% kRate, 0.60 WHIP, and is allowing just a .145 AVG & .195 wOBA. Two of his starts were against Seattle, which despite popping off on occasion, is still a pretty mediocre offense at best. But his season debut was against these same Oakland A’s and he allowed just three hits and one run over 6.2 innings while striking out seven and earning the win. The A’s have a ton of power in their lineup and typically isn’t going to be a team I’d want to attack with a pitcher. But they do strikeout 24.9% of the time against RHPs and Bundy has limited hitters to 31.4% Hard Contact, so home runs should be tough to come by for Oakland. When Bundy pitched for the Orioles in recent seasons, I used to stack against him far more than I would roll him out as my pitcher, so I’m trying to put long term biases aside today and see if it pays off.
Jordan Montgomery (LHP) | DK: $7.9k, FD: $6.8k | vs. ATL
This pick isn’t without some risk, but you can honestly say that about every single pitcher today. As talented of an offense that the Braves have, they have really struggled against lefty pitchers this season. In 165 plate appearances versus LHPs (decent sample size), Atlanta has struck out a massive 34.5% of the time while hitting just .185 (.247 wOBA) and posting a lousy 56 wRC+. They’re very likely to see some positive regression against LHPs soon, but for now I’d be willing to roll out Montgomery in GPPs and see if it pays off. He’s coming off of a rough game against the Phillies, but they’ve been one of the better teams against lefties this season (154 wRC+ ranks 3rd). Montgomery looked solid in his season debut against Boston, which has been a decently strong team versus southpaws this season (120 wRC+ ranks 9th). After going from 81 pitches in his first start to 95 pitches in his second, it seems Monty is fully stretched out and could go fairly deep into this game if the Braves continue to display some struggles against lefties.
Others to Consider: Max Scherzer (DK: $10.8k, FD: $10.7k) @ NYM -- Has to be considered since he’s very likely to be the highest scoring pitcher of the slate **as long as the hamstring issue is behind him and he sees no restrictions.** Ross Stripling (DK: $7.9k, FD: $8.3k) vs. SD -- He’s seen 86+ pitches in all three starts and despite the worrisome match-up where he’s playing San Diego in back-to-back starts, he has strong strikeout upside which could help counterbalance the negative points he could get from giving up a few runs. Josh Lindblom (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.3k) vs. MIN -- Tough match-up on paper but I’m still intrigued by the fair amount of upside he has for these lower-end salaries. After having to be pulled after 3.2 IP in his first game due to back spasms, he looked very solid in his last start against a fairly decent White Sox team.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
Chalk Stacks: Diamondbacks, Rockies, Yankees, and Nationals seem likely to be chalky stacks tonight. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking players on these teams. Just be aware of likely high ownership (especially for Coors Field teams).
Los Angeles Angels vs. Mike Fiers (RHP), OAK
As a team, the Angels .207 ISO versus RHPs ranks 4th in baseball and it just seems like the top half of their lineup (Fletcher, La Stella, Trout, Rendon, Ohtani) is going to be responsible for some GPP takedowns this season. Since the start of 2019, Fiers has a poor 5.25 xFIP and has allowed 1.48 HR/9 and is only striking out 16% of hitters. The A’s bullpen is pretty scary (3.31 xFIP, ranks 1st in MLB) but Los Angeles didn’t seem to have any problem against it last night when they hit three homers and scored seven runs against A’s relievers. With Mike Trout’s newly acquired “dad strength,” this Angels team is going to be an intriguing one to load up on.
Boston Red Sox vs. Andrew Kittredge (RHP), BOS
Kittredge is most likely going to be out there for an inning or two in an ‘opener’ role with Jalen Beeks a likely candidate to pitch a few innings after him. So it’s a bit tricky sizing up Boston’s lineup against any particular Rays pitcher. While the Red Sox have been a bit of a disappointment so far, with a 6-10 record and averaging 4.38 runs/game (ranks 14th), they still have a talented offensive lineup and the hitting conditions in Fenway Park should be very solid tonight. They have the sort of firepower to score 10+ runs on nearly anybody. Maybe tonight could be one of those kinda nights.
The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
Cleveland Indians vs. Jon Lester (LHP), CHC
The Indians have some talented offensive pieces, so it feels pretty odd to consider this a ‘crazy stack.’ But the truth is, this offense hasn’t really done much this season. Their 3.47 runs/game ranks ahead of only Texas and Toronto. And Jon Lester isn’t a slouch of a pitcher, at all. But the Indians may be piecing things together, after scoring 25 runs in their last four games (6.25 runs/game), and they have fared better this season against southpaw pitchers (like Lester) as opposed to RHPs. Some of these bats are worth a look and should be very low-owned.
One-Off Hitters ☝️
OF Juan Soto | DK: $5.2k, FD: $4.1k | vs. Rick Porcello (RHP), NYM
Soto has not wasted any time contributing to Washington’s offense after opening his 2020 season going 8-for-18 (.444) with three doubles, two home runs, and five RBI. Going back to the start of last season, Soto has a .421 wOBA and .273 ISO against RHPs. Porcello actually pitched a solid game in his last start, which was also against the Nats, but he looked pretty bad in his two previous starts against the Braves when he allowed 9 ER on 12 H across six combined innings. As I’ve mentioned quite a few times before, a pitcher facing the same team twice within a week in back-to-back starts often results in him getting shelled. It’s a very real possibility it happens to Porcello tonight, and Soto could be one of the guys who carries much of the blame.
OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA
Any time Gallo gets one or two guaranteed cracks at a lefty, he’s a guy worth targeting… particularly as a one-off bat considering how sluggish most of this Rangers offense has been. All four of Gallo’s 2020 home runs have been at the expense of lefty pitchers and he’s gotten those four homers in just 23 at-bats. Gallo has displayed reverse splits across his entire career and has a massive .322 ISO with 36 HRs in 401 at-bats against lefties. When you think about it, he’s hitting a home run in nearly 10% of his ABs against LHPs. As usual, he’s a bit of a boom/bust option, but I like his chances to come through tonight (especially if they open the roof up again).
OF JaCoby Jones | DK: $2.9k, FD: $3k | vs. Gio Gonzalez (LHP), CWS
I usually try to mix outfielders and infielders in this one-off section but it’ll be all outfield today. Jones continues to get no respect (or ownership) in DFS, and his salaries remain in the basement. As I’ve mentioned before, it’s mostly due to the fact that he’s perpetually stuck at the back of the order and plays on a Detroit team that doesn’t boast a lot of big name appeal. But Jones has absolutely been a fantasy scoring stud this season. He’s averaging 10.5 DKFP/14.23 FDFP per game and his 220 wRC+ ranks 2nd in the MLB (min. 40 PA) just behind Charlie Blackmon (221 wRC+) and just ahead of Fernando Tatis Jr. (219 wRC+). He has five HRs on the season already alongside a .481 wOBA and .452 ISO. If you take his 2020 stats and fantasy scores and give them to just about anyone else, they’re likely to be priced in the top 10-15% salary range for hitters. I like the idea of running an affordable mini two-man wraparound stack with Jones and Niko Goodrum (DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k), who has been been playing great as well and is batting atop the order.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
OF Joey Gallo | DK: $4.6k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Marco Gonzales (LHP), SEA
I’m too tempted by Gallo in the advantageous reverse splits lefty-on-lefty match-up to not double down on him. He also has a couple dingers off of Gonzales already in his career in just 15 plate appearances. Send one deep tonight, Joey! Otherwise, I’m gonna be forced to take the easy route and go with some Coors Field bats in this ‘Home Run Call’ section soon!
This video of Gallo getting upset about his picture in 'MLB The Show' is still one of the funniest things I saw during the shutdown/quarantine.
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