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⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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Eleven games wait on deck for this evening’s main slate. Vegas is expecting some high scores tonight as five of those 11 games currently possess a 10+ run total and several others are not far off from that number. Plenty of ballparks across the country will have some helpful hitting conditions as well, so it comes as no surprise that we should expect to see some strong offensive numbers today.

Note: The WAS @ NYM game is excluded from the FanDuel main slate. I assume that is due to the fact that these two teams will be resuming yesterday’s suspended game at 4:10 ET today. But the evening game will play as scheduled and will *not* be counted as a doubleheader game (so they’ll play the typical nine innings, pending extras).

This should be a fun one so strap in!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

We’ll need to keep an eye on the possibility of some severe weather rolling into Chicago (MIL @ CHC) and a chance for some storms in Baltimore (DET @ BAL). Otherwise, there isn’t too much else to worry about aside from some random summertime pop-up storms.

Best hitting environments: LAD @ PHI, DET @ BAL, STL @ PIT, OAK @ CLE, TB @ BOS, WAS @ NYM, CIN @ ATL, MIL @ CHC

Best pitching environments: TOR @ LAA, ARI @ SF

DET @ BAL (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Possibility of some storms arriving either early or late in this game. They could also avoid trouble altogether. Either way, the storms would be expected to cause a delay at worst with no significant postponement threat. Nice hitting conditions with 90 degree temperatures around first pitch and light winds blowing out.

LAD @ PHI (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Around 90 degrees at first pitch with near 10 mph winds blowing out to center.

TB @ BOS (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Fairly warm with 10 mph winds blowing out to left.

WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, O/U TBD): Similar to Boston. Mid-80s with 10 mph winds blowing out to left.

OAK @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Mid-to-high 80s with 10+ mph winds blowing out to center.

CIN @ ATL (7:20 ET, 10 O/U): Chance for a pop-up storm.

MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 10 O/U): This looks like the primary spot to watch out for tonight, weather-wise. A line of storms threatens to come through at some point during this game, likely later on. If it’s bad enough to cause a delay and the storms aren’t in a hurry to move out of the area, there’s a chance they could call the game early. They could also end up avoiding any trouble. Just check the forecast here closer to lock. Assuming they avoid major issues, there should be some excellent hitting weather with warm temperatures and 15+ mph winds blowing out.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Kevin Gausman (RHP), SF | DK: $9.9k, FD: $10.3k | vs. ARI

With the potential for bad weather in Chicago and the excellent hitting conditions that will be present at Wrigley Field regardless of whether or not storms impact play, I’d expect Gausman to be many people’s go-to spend-up target at pitcher tonight (as opposed to Corbin Burnes). He’s been money against Arizona all season. In three games versus the D-Backs (19.0 IP), Gausman has acquired three wins with a 1.42 ERA, 2.44 xFIP, 0.89 WHIP, and 31.1% kRate. Against RHPs over the last two weeks, Arizona has struck out a league high 29.4% of the time while hitting just .197 with a .267 wOBA, .124 ISO, and 64 wRC+. There just isn’t much life in those D-Backs bats. Gausman draws a strong pitching environment on his home field at Oracle Park and the Giants will check-in as massive -270 favorites.

Adam Wainwright (RHP), STL | DK: $9.4k, FD: $9.6k | @ PIT

Waino is a little pricey for someone who doesn’t regularly offer a ton of strikeout upside (22.8% kRate). But he is one of the best in the business at simply eating up a high number of innings while typically holding opponents to limited run production. He’s pitched seven full innings in four straight starts and has held a low 1.01 WHIP in his previous five starts while walking only 1.6 BB/9. Pittsburgh is batting .199 vs. RHPs in the last two weeks with a poor .258 wOBA, .109 ISO, and 59 wRC+. They’re also striking out a bit more lately as well (24% kRate L2Wks). The Pirates have created the softest contact of any team in the league, which should only add to Wainwright’s ability to get easy outs and pitch deep into the game. The Cardinals will check in as solid -170 favorites and Pittsburgh carries a low 4.1 implied run total.

Josh Fleming (LHP), TB | DK: $6k, FD: $6.7k | @ BOS

There is a high amount of risk involved with Fleming, but if he keeps the momentum up from his last couple of starts, he could come away as a strong value play. Fleming typically relies on garnering a high amount of ground outs (56.9% GB%) as opposed to strikeouts (15.8% kRate). However, he has struck out 13 hitters in his last two games, including seven Ks against this same Boston team 12 days ago. The Red Sox are still a strong offense against lefties, though they have struggled a bit lately (91 wRC+ vs. LHPs L2Wks, ranks 21st). Fleming has also had some problems when pitching on the road (2.37 ERA at home vs. 6.40 ERA away) so he’ll have to reverse that trend in order to succeed today. I would likely only consider Fleming as an SP2 GPP option on DraftKings, unless you’re feeling really frisky on FanDuel and want to go after a load of big bats.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

If they avoid the bad weather, the Milwaukee Brewers are in an excellent spot today against Jake Arrieta with very favorable hitting conditions. Dylan Bundy has also looked really bad for a large portion of this season, so the Toronto Blue Jays could offer plenty of upside today as well if you can afford ‘em. 

Secondary Stacks

Detroit Tigers vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Detroit paid off in a similar spot yesterday -- the difference being they were facing a bad LHP as opposed to a bad RHP. So I’m not against the idea of going back to them this evening. Matt Harvey held Detroit in check a couple of weeks ago across 6.1 IP and, in general, he has been pitching better as of late. BUT… I’m still not buying into the notion that Harvey keeps the improved performances going long term. Regardless, he’s only been throwing at most about 80 pitches per game and if Detroit can force Harvey out early, they get some additional at-bats against that bottom five ranked O’s bullpen.

St. Louis Cardinals vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

This Cardinals offense has disappointed more often than not, but they’ll have a solid opportunity to post some strong production today. Wil Crowe is one of the worst SPs on this slate (which hurts to say, because I’m an SC Gamecock fan, which is where he pitched in college) and this season he has amassed a 5.47 ERA, 4.89 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and .373 opp wOBA. He’s also allowed a high amount of HRs per nine innings, particularly to RHBs (2.93 HR/9 Rate). Behind Crowe will be a Pirates bullpen whose 4.81 xFIP over the last month rates out as the 4th worst in the MLB and their 1.62 WHIP in that same span checks in as the 2nd highest.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Seattle Mariners vs. Spencer Howard (RHP), TEX

I doubt many will target this West Coast match-up in search of offense but Seattle could provide some DFS value at low ownership today. Spencer Howard possesses a slate-worst 5.13 xFIP and across his last five starts, he has posted a 7.62 ERA with a 1.77 WHIP. He’s only thrown 44 pitches/gm in that span, so it’s likely that Seattle will face a good number of bullpen arms. That would be a Rangers bullpen, which isn’t terrible but has accounted for the 9th highest xFIP over the last 30 days.

One-Off Bats ☝️

1B Joey Votto | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.2k | vs. Touki Toussaint (RHP), ATL

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.7k, FD: $4k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

SS Willy Adames | DK: $5.6k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Jake Arrieta (RHP), CHC

2B Marcus Semien | DK: $5.2k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Dylan Bundy (RHP), LAA

3B Nolan Arenado | DK: $4.9k, FD: $3.7k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

1B/OF Trey Mancini | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

1B Brandon Belt | DK: $4.2k, FD: $3k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

1B/3B Jeimer Candelario | DK: $3.9k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Matt Harvey (RHP), BAL

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

1B/OF Lamonte Wade Jr. | DK: $3.2k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Merrill Kelly (RHP), ARI

OF Tyler O’Neill | DK: $3.2k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

2B/OF Tommy Edman | DK: $2.9k, FD: $2.9k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Dylan Carlson | DK: $2.8k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Wil Crowe (RHP), PIT

OF Austin Hays | DK: $2.5k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $2.3k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

OF Seth Brown | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.1k | vs. Cal Quantrill (RHP), CLE

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

1B/OF Trey Mancini | DK: $4.3k, FD: $3.2k | vs. Tarik Skubal (LHP), DET

Mancini hasn’t been lighting it up lately but today represents a strong chance for him to get things going. He’s hitting a mere .143 over his last 10 games with zero homers and only a .071 ISO. Fortunately, Skubal is no stranger to giving up the long ball, particularly against RHBs to whom he has a 2.39 HR/9 Rate and .257 ISO against this season. Mancini has been great against LHPs on the season as a whole. In 140 at-bats versus LHPs, Mancini has posted a .384 wOBA, .279 ISO, 147 wRC+, and nine home runs. He has created 58.3% Hard Contact over the last two weeks so, sooner or later, if he keeps hitting the ball that hard, good things will come. They’ll have some nice hitting conditions out in Camden Yards today as well, with temperatures around 90 degrees at first pitch and light winds blowing out at an already hitter-friendly ballpark.

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