Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

No On Deck podcast this weekend. Back Monday.

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A sold out Citi Field crowd watched their beloved Mets pull off another night of come from behind magic in the eighth inning to take the second game of this critical division series. That's their eighth straight win and their 15th in the last 16 games. A team that was 11 games under .500 a month ago now sits at 61-56, just a half game back from a wildcard spot, and is on the verge of sweeping the Nationals when Jacob deGrom takes the ball this afternoon.

In other news, Houston put up 23 runs last night! No, that's not a typo. It was a fun night of baseball yesterday and I know everyone is excited for NFL (myself included) but as these playoff races start to heat up it's going to get good here down the stretch. Plenty of MLB left to go. We have an eleven game slate today and it's our typical early 1:05pm EST Sunday start. Grab some coffee. Here are the Vegas lines:  

Weather Outlook

Another perfect day in the weather department. Cooler temperatures around the country with many games in the high 70s or low 80s. The warmest game of the day is in Chicago where it will be 86 degrees. Very little wind, none that should have an impact, and very little rain (if any) in the forecast as well.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Justin Verlander, HOU | DK: $12.4K, FD: $12.5K | RHP | @ Baltimore

Expensive? Yes. Worth it? Should be. We don't have as large a pricing gap between the top pitcher on the board today (Verlander) and the second pitcher (deGrom) as we did yesterday (Morton and Syndergaard). Part of the appeal of Syndergaard on yesterday's slate is he came with a price savings we could use elsewhere in our lineups. Verlander and deGrom are much closer together which means I'll likely be trying to find that extra cash in a lot of my lineups to make sure I have as many Verlander shares as possible. He's dialed in right now with a major league leading 15 wins and four consecutive starts with double-digit strikeouts  (12,11,13,10). He has 206 strikeouts in 157.2 innings pitched this season - second best in the league behind his teammate Gerrit Cole. He's going to chew up this Baltimore lineup today who own just a .303 wOBA and .166 ISO against right-handed pitching this season. Verlander and the Astros are ridiculous -351 favorites and the Orioles have the lowest implied total on the board. Take the obvious floor/ceiling here and move on.

Chris Bassitt, OAK | DK: $9.1K, FD: $8.0K | RHP | @ Chicago

Tanner Roark pitched very well last night finishing with a final line of 6.2 IP, six hits allowed, three runs (two earned) and seven strikeouts despite taking the loss due to a complete lack of run support from his teammates. Despite the price, which admittedly feels high for Bassitt, I'm going right back to this Oakland rotation today. He's 7-5 on the year and has been particularly solid since the All-Star break against some very challenging teams. During that span he's had to face the Twins, Astros, and Cubs (all on the road), the Brewers at home, and then a much easier match up against these White Sox. That's three division leaders and a wild card team in his last five starts where he's gone 2-1 with a 2.48 ERA (4.31 SIERA), 1.10 WHIP, and 21.9% strikeouts. The SIERA being nearly two runs higher than the ERA is a bit concerning but given the competition he's faced it's not a total surprise the advanced stats are suggesting he's had a little luck on his side. Against the White Sox today, I'm not overly worried about possible regression kicking in, as the Chicago bats continue to struggle as displayed by their .301 wOBA, .145 ISO, and 87 wRC+. Their league worst 25.8% strikeout rate is also good news for Bassitt who's just an average strikeout pitcher and will benefit from a little help. The downside here is he may be popular today as pitchers against the White Sox typically are and the mid-tier isn't overly strong on this slate. That doesn't make him the wrong choice, it just increases the risk a bit. If you're multi-entering, I would hedge with some White Sox lineups as added protection. He's pitching well right now but he's far from a sure thing.  

Mike Foltynewicz, ATL | DK: $7K, FD: $7.7K | RHP | @ Miami

Everything just went off the rails for him in 2019. His ERA is up over last year by nearly three runs (3.77 vs. 6.26), his WHIP was near elite last season (1.08 vs. 1.40 this year), and even his strikeouts have come way down (27.2% last year vs. 20.1% this year). The 6.37 ERA in 11 starts resulted in his demotion Triple-A where he showed some life again generating a 2.67 ERA with 31 strikeouts to just eight walks in 33.2 innings pitched and earned a right to be recalled back into the rotation (earned might be a little nice - more like forced when Gausman was released). His first start back at the MLB level was solid going 5.1 IP allowing three runs (all in the sixth) and striking out seven in a difficult match up against the Twins. Despite all this, we know he has double-digit strikeout upside when he's on, and it makes him worth the risk in this match up and at this price. Today, he gets an opportunity to build on that momentum against the worst offense in baseball. Miami has just a .284 wOBA, .127 ISO, and 76 wRC+ this season. They also strike out 24.2% of the time. The ROI potential here is huge if we see anything close to the 2018 version of Folynewicz but just know the floor is is scary low given all the uncertainty surrounding him.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Asher Wojciechowski, BAL (RHP)

I know what everyone is thinking right now. This feels like we are chasing points after the Astros put up 23 runs last night. This isn't chasing. Chasing is when a team, who is not expected to be a top performer, randomly becomes one and then everyone hops on board the next day hoping to catch lightning in a bottle. Will Houston put up 23 runs again today? No. Are they still arguably the best offense in baseball and have a pretty good shot at being the highest scoring team on this slate? Yup, absolutely. Wojciechowski has come back down to earth after two solid starts against the Red Sox and Angels. In his last two starts he's allowed a total of 11 hits, nine earned runs and five home runs in only 8.2 innings pitched. Don't overthink it here. Houston is the top stack on the board once again.

Los Angeles Angels vs. Andrew Cashner (RHP)

It's safe to say the Andrew Cashner experiment has failed in Boston. Miserably. He was having an outstanding season prior to being traded but now owns a 1-4 record in his five starts with the Red Sox including a 7.53 ERA (5.24 SIERA), just 15.6% strikeouts to nearly 10% walks, and a 1.74 WHIP. Not that it's all on him (though he certainly hasn't helped) but Boston has fallen out of the playoff picture winning just three of their last seven and falling to a massive 15 games back of the division lead. The past two games in this series have been total blow outs with the Sox winning 16-4 on Friday night and the Angels handing it right back with a 12-4 win last night. The Angels should have no issue putting runs on the board again today. Trout (1.147 OPS, .456 wOBA, .393 ISO), Ohtani (.367 wOBA, .250 ISO), Upton (.359 wOBA, .227 ISO), and Calhoun (.319 wOBA, .232 ISO) all hit right-handed pitching well. David Fletcher has zero power (.105 ISO) but a solid .327 wOBA and just a 7.8% strikeout rate. Good chance he'll be on base when another piece of your stack steps up to the plate, so don't leave him out.

Minnesota Twins vs Aaron Civale, CLE (RHP)

I see Civale getting a lot of love and I don't understand it. I'm definitely not willing to to draw any conclusions about a pitcher with just two starts under his belt against two teams who are well out of the playoff race. Suddenly we think he can go up against this powerful Minnesota Twins offense (even without Cruz) because he went six innings and didn't allow any runs to the Detroit Tigers? Civale's impressive 0.75 ERA is accompanied by a 3.89 SIERA, a .185 BABIP, and 40.7% hard contact allowed. He's due to regress, likely sooner than later, so I'm going to be all in on Minnesota in this spot. In case you need additional motivation to play the Twins, let's quickly review their lineup against right-handed pitching: Kepler (.376 wOBA, .310 ISO), Rosario (.347 wOBA, .249 ISO), Polanco (.385 wOBA, .241 ISO), Sano (.365 wOBA, .319 ISO), and Garver (.359 wOBA, .313 ISO). The Twins opened as -130 favorites and this has climbed to -144.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack. 

Aristides Aquino, CIN| DK: $4.2K, FD: $3.6K | OF | vs. Jon Lester (LHP)

Levels of hot streaks for major league baseball players:

1. Hot

2. White Hot

3. Surface of the Sun

4. Aristides Aquino

THIS feels a little like chasing in my opinion but what choice do we have at this point? His price is rising but it still hasn't caught up to the level of production he has been putting out the past several games. He has a 1.431 wOBA+ISO in his last 31 plate appearances. His average exit velocity during that span is 99.7 miles per hour, the average distance is 328.1 feet, and he has 4.52 FP/PA. How do we not play him right now?

Hunter Dozier, KC | DK: $4.5K, FD: $3.9K | 3B | vs. Daniel Norris (LHP)

In the month of August, Dozier has put up double-digit fantasy points in five of eight games. During that span he has a 44.4% hard hit rate with a 92.6 mph average exit velocity. In his last 19 plate appearances against left-handed pitching he owns a 1.192 wOBA+ISO and is producing 3.27 FP/PA.

Sam Travis, BOS | DK: $3.7K, FD: $2.9K | 1B | vs. Patrick Sandoval (LHP)

Perhaps the only positive about this brutal stretch the Red Sox are currently going through is it has led to more playing time for Sam Travis. He's making a serious case to be Boston's everyday first basemen next season. In seven starts this month he has four double-digit fantasy performances, a .752 wOBA+ISO, and 2.50 FP/PA.

Best of luck today!

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