Written by Greg Landry | @glandry on LineStar | @GP_Landry on Twitter

No On Deck podcast this weekend. Back Monday.

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It almost feels like hell has frozen over doesn’t it? The biggest series of the weekend got off to an exciting start as the surging New York Mets are 9-1 in their last ten games after an incredible come from behind victory last night. They had been 0-187 in games they trailed by three runs or more in the ninth inning before yesterday. The last time they won a game like that was on September 13, 2015. Game two should be another one worth watching in what’s shaping up to be a pitcher’s duel between Syndergaard and Corbin. As far as DFS goes, today’s slate brings us ten games. There are some notable differences in salary on several of the pitchers today between the two sites. I’ll highlight the ones that stand out to me below but also be sure you’re checking out the salary comparison tool as it will help you see which players are a better option on one site versus the other. Here are the Vegas lines:

Weather Outlook

The weather is quiet today. Zero threats of rain. No impact from the winds. The game in St. Louis between the Cardinals and Pirates has expected temperatures that will push 90 degrees with Wainwright and Musgrove on the hill. This could result in some sneaky offense with the bats getting a little lift from the heat. Outside of that, there’s really no advantage or disadvantage today weather wise but, as always, be sure you check again before lock as things can change throughout the day.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Noah Syndergaard, NYM | DK: $10.5K, FD: $10.7K | RHP | vs. Washington

A critical weekend series in New York got off to an incredible start last night with that comeback victory by the Mets. Syndergaard’s overall season numbers are “fine” but not up to the standards we typically expect from the one they call Thor. He has a 4.10 SIERA, 1.20 WHIP, 23.6% strikeouts. Much of this is driven by his performance during the first half of the season. Before the All-Star break he had a 4.68 ERA (4.32 SIERA), 1.28 WHIP, 22.8% strikeouts, 6.8% walks, and 45.7% ground balls forced. All of these numbers are worse than the 2018 season. Not sure if it was the threat of being traded (or possibly a desire to be traded?) that got him to flip a switch but he has been absolutely lights out since the All-Star break with a 1.78 ERA, (3.38 SIERA), 0.99 WHIP, 27.9% strikeouts, 5.7% walks, and 57.6% ground balls forced. Washington holds just a slim one game lead on the first wildcard spot and the Mets are just a half game out of the final wild card spot. The Nationals are middle of the pack against right-handed pitching this season with a surprisingly low .319 wOBA and .177 ISO given some of the talent they have on this roster. At home, in the most pitcher friendly park in all of baseball, with their winning streak on the line and the wild card spot within reach, I like Syndergaard to keep his momentum going with a strong performance today. Charlie Morton is your top option with a high floor against a weak Seattle roster. Syndergaard is a close second for me and I’ll gladly pivot from Morton in tournaments and take the savings to invest elsewhere in my roster.

Tanner Roark, OAK | DK: $8.2K, FD: $7.3K | RHP | @Chicago

The mid-tier is full of risk/reward options today so you can pretty much take your pick and just know the upside is there but the floor is low. Paddack is likely to get the most attention and rightfully so given what he’s shown us this season and the excellent match up against a poor Rockies team, particularly on the road. My concern with Paddack is the innings inconsistency. The Padres are concerned about his workload and he’ll be on short leashes the rest of the way. He’s made it past five innings just twice in his last 10 starts. That’s concerning for someone in his price range. Hendricks is pitching well right now but he has red flags all over him. Since the All-Star break he has a 1.72 ERA but a 4.48 SIERA and only a .172 BABIP. Odorizzi against Cleveland? Gray against the Reds? We can do better.

That brings me to Roark, who is intriguing in this spot. Normally, he falls into the “better real-life than fantasy pitcher” but against a struggling Chicago lineup I think we can make an exception here. The White Sox are at or near the bottom of every major category including a .295 wOBA (28th), .142 ISO (29th), .692 OPS (28th), and 83 wRC+ (28th). Perhaps most importantly, they have a 26.4% strikeout rate – most in the majors against right-handed pitching. His stats don’t jump off the page, but his 22.5% strikeout rate should get a lift in this spot and Oakland is a heavy -175 favorite. He has a reasonable floor/ceiling combination today for this price.

Aaron Sanchez | DK: $6.9K, FD: $8.2K | RHP | @Baltimore

I’m going to keep riding this train until it crashes in a fiery inferno. Sanchez has been outstanding since the All-Star break with a 4.39 ERA (3.92 SIERA), 1.16 WHIP, 24.6% strikeouts, and just 4.4% walks. His last two starts include a ten strikeout gem against the Rays and then being the lead man in a combined no-hitter in his Houston debut where he went six innings, allowed no hits (obviously) and struck out six. This has been enough to keep him in the rotation after he was originally expected to take a role in the bullpen upon being traded. Instead, it appears that Brad Peacock will go to the bullpen once he’s activated from the injured list. This is the perfect match up for Sanchez to keep the hot streak going against a Baltimore offense that, like Chicago, is near the bottom of the league in most categories against right-handed pitching. They have a .303 wOBA, and .166 ISO with 22.7% strikeouts. The Astros, unsurprisingly, are massive -260 favorites. NOTE: His price on FanDuel sky rocketed which makes him a much tougher sell. There’s still room for him to exceed salary expectations on DraftKings which is where my interest primarily lies today.

Team Stacks to Target

Quick Note: Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to go in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Houston Astros vs. Aaron Brooks, BAL (RHP)

Even if Sanchez doesn’t have his best stuff today it shouldn’t matter because his teammates will be teeing off on Aaron Brooks. In his last three starts, he’s 0-2 with an 8.56 ERA, 1.90 WHIP, and 16.4% strikeouts. Today, he’ll take on the first place Astros who own a 75-40 record and are 9-1 in their last ten games. The entire lineup is in play but the highlights include Springer (.391 wOBA, .308 ISO, 48.2% hard hits vs RHP), Alvarez (.442 wOBA, .325 ISO, 51.3% hard hits vs RHP), Brantley (.390 wOBA, .220 ISO vs RHP), and Bregman (.386 wOBA, .242 ISO vs RHP). Altuve is significantly better against lefties and makes for an interesting fade if you’re doing single entry but you should definitely sprinkle him in if you’re rolling out multiple stacks. Correa, Gurriel, and Chirinos all have plenty of upside as well.

Oakland Athletics vs. Reynaldo Lopez, CWS (RHP)

Looks like all the pitchers I like most are going to be set up with plenty of run support today. Roark is another example of someone who should have the opportunity to pitch with a lead throughout this game while his teammates take batting practice against Reynaldo Lopez. For the second year in a row Lopez is inside the top ten in all of baseball for home runs allowed with 24 in 129 innings of work. Matt Olson stands out with his .348 wOBA, .236 ISO, and 49.7% hard hits against right-handed pitching. Semien (.361 wOBA, .210 ISO), Chapman (.340 wOBA, .222 ISO), Canha (.380 wOBA, .264 ISO), and Laureano (.361 wOBA, .248 ISO) all make excellent floor/ceiling options today. We can also address the elephant in the room otherwise known as Khris Davis. He was awful in July going just 14-82. Personally, I’ll be overweight on him, as I think much of the league has given up hope. His upside is undeniable and the potential ROI on his current salary is drool worthy. This is a great spot for him to have massive fantasy day. But I recognize he’s ice cold, so play him at your own risk.

San Diego Padres vs. Chi Chi Gonzalez, COL (RHP)

Somehow, Chi Chi Gonzalez is getting another spot start for the Rockies today. He’s lost all four of his starts with a 5.95 ERA, just 13 strikeouts in 19 innings, and a whopping 5 home runs allowed (2.29 HR/9). The risk of having exposure to a strikeout prone lineup like the Padres should at least be mitigated today against Gonzalez who has just a 14.3% strikeout rate (and a 13.2% walk rate). Tatis (.385 wOBA, .280 ISO), Hosmer (.348 wOBA, .196 ISO), and Renfroe (.317 wOBA, .261 ISO) are my top three players here. Machado has pretty drastic splits between left and right-handed pitching the season and obviously we prefer him against lefties, but he’s certainly in play in this spot.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Jose Ramirez, CLE | DK: $4.3K, FD: $3.5K | 3B | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP)

Ramriez’s last four games from a fantasy production standpoint (DraftKings scoring): 23, 21, 18, 24. His salary, despite this success, has hardly moved. In his last 66 plate appearances against right-handed pitching he has a .911 wOBA+ISO and 3.14 FP/PA including seven home runs and 19 RBI. He has solid history against Odorizzi as well. In 23 plate appearances he has an .877 wOBA+ISO, 2.6 FP/PA, and three home runs.

Manny Pina, MIL | DK: $3.1K, FD: $2.5 | C | vs. Pedro Payano (RHP)

The obvious caveat here is Pina has to be in the lineup first so make sure you check that out. I love to punt the catcher position and Pina is a great option to do that with. He’s a cheap source of upside. In his last 19 plate appearances against right-handed pitching he has an .839 wOBA+ISO and 2.95 FP/PA with two home runs and eight RBI. He gets a great match up today against Pedro Payano, who owns a 1.53 WHIP, and the Brewers have a massive 5.5 implied run total.

J.D Davis, NYM | DK: $3.8K, FD: $2.7K | 3B/OF | vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP)

I’m not typically in the business of recommending hitters against top tier pitching but there is a lot to like here about Davis. For starters, he’s on fire right now and playing a big role in the Mets success down the stretch. He has double-digit fantasy points in four of his last six games. During that span he owns a .902 wOBA+ISO against left-handed pitching including 2.82 FP/PA. He even has some surprisingly strong history against Corbin. As always, these are small samples, but in 16 plate appearances he has a .977 wOBA+ISO with 2 home runs. He’s an inexpensive one-off that should be virtually unowned today against Corbin.

Best of luck today! Don't forget about the Weekend Edition On Deck Podcast with Joe and Chris. There's a link at the top of the newsletter!

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