Author: @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter and LineStar Chat

⚾ LineStar's 2021 MLB DFS Strategy Guide ⚾

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If yesterday’s minuscule slate (which got whittled down to only four games following the MIL @ CHC postponement) wasn’t your thing, I’m sure you’ll be much more enticed by the massive full slate of games waiting on deck for this evening. Do note that there are a couple of differences between the DraftKings and FanDuel main slates. On DraftKings, two-second legs of doubleheaders will be included (MIL @ CHC and TOR @ LAA) -- remember that both of those games will be scheduled to only play seven innings (pending extra innings needed). On FanDuel, only the 13 non-doubleheader games will land on the docket. I’m still on vacay until tomorrow, so things will be a bit more concise for the next couple MLB newsletters. I am still putting in the groundwork, though! Let’s get itttttttttttt!

Main slate match-ups with implied run totals and moneyline odds:

Weather Outlook ☁️🌦️☁️

There is not much postponement risk today, but some pesky rain situations could bring some late starts/delays into play.

Best hitting environments: DET @ BAL, LAD @ PHI, OAK @ CLE, TB @ BOS, CIN @ ATL, MIL @ CHC, NYY @ KC

Best pitching environments: ARI @ SF, TOR @ LAA, MIA @ SD, TEX @ SEA

STL @ PIT (7:05 ET, 9.5 O/U): Outside chance of some rain (slight delay risk).

DET @ BAL (7:05 ET, 10 O/U): Moderate chance of some rain, mostly towards the beginning of this game. A late start is possible. Otherwise, nice hitting weather with mid/high-80s temps and winds blowing out to left at 10 mph.

LAD @ PHI (7:05 ET, 8/5 O/U): Outside chance of some rain (slight delay risk). Winds blowing out to center at 10 mph.

OAK @ CLE (7:10 ET, 9 O/U): Perhaps the highest chance of a rain delay resides in this game, but it’s still not incredibly likely. Just be a little wary of using starting pitchers here.

WAS @ NYM (7:10 ET, 8.5 O/U): Outside chance of some rain (slight delay risk).

MIL @ CHC (8:05 ET, 8.5 O/U): Warm and humid with 10+ mph winds blowing out to left.

NYY @ KC (8:10 ET, 10 O/U): Similar to yesterday -- 90-95 degree temps with 10-15 mph winds blowing out to left.

Pitchers to Consider ⚾

Eduardo Rodriguez (LHP), BOS | DK: $9.3k, FD: $8k | vs. TB

If you want to err on the side of caution, I’d have no issues paying all the way up for Max Scherzer ($11k/$10.6k) against Philly today. Logan Gilbert ($9.6k/$8.9k), while a touch overpriced in my opinion [on DK], should have one of the better-perceived floors on the slate considering his elevated strikeout rate lately (31.5% L5Gms) and he draws the cake Texas Rangers match-up.

If you’re feeling a little risky, ERod comes into play towards the top of pitcher pricing. In his last seven starts, he has accounted for a lofty 33.6% kRate. His 3.66 ERA in that span may not seem all that great, but he’s been getting quite unlucky when you compare that to his excellent 2.79 xFIP in that same stretch. While they are a capable offense, Tampa Bay offers a considerable amount of strikeout upside to opposing pitchers, and their 26.8% kRate vs. LHPs this season is the 3rd highest K% in the league. Also, he hasn’t shown it consistently this season, but Rodriguez historically tends to pitch better at home. I like him in GPPs today.

Zac Gallen (RHP), ARI | DK: $7.1k, FD: $7.8k | @ SF

The low/mid-range for pitchers is littered with a load of landmines. Gallen, to me, feels like one guy who has a decent chance NOT to blow up. His 27.3% kRate is solid for these salaries, all his statcast data from the last month ranges from “decent” to “good,” he’s thrown 100 and 109 pitches in his last two starts, and he draws one of the better pitching environments on the slate. Now, the bad: he’s playing the same opponent, San Francisco, in back-to-back starts in a span of six days (always a risky situation for any pitcher), he has a 6.17 ERA (4.08 xFIP), 1.52 WHIP, and 1.9 HR/9 Rate in his last five starts, and the D-Backs are huge +195 underdogs today. In 13 starts this year, he’s pretty much either played poorly or played well without much in-between. If we get the good version of Gallen today, he should push for that 20 DKFP/35 FDFP threshold that we look for out of cheaper SPs, with some room for a bit more upside.

Steven Brault (LHP), STL | DK: $6.1k, FD: $6.5k | vs. STL

Brault would be another one of those potential landmines but there’s some reasonable ‘fantasy point per dollar’ potential with him today. In his season debut at Milwaukee last Wednesday, he had a surprisingly long leash following a lengthy stint on the IL (left lat strain) and was allowed a 75 pitch workload. That was enough to span four full innings of work where he allowed just three hits, one walk, and one earned run. He’s never been a huge strikeout guy and only K’d up two Brewers batters last week (12.5% kRate) -- but, more often than not, he’s going to average about a 20% kRate and close to a strikeout per inning. St. Louis has their moments, but in general, they are a fairly mediocre offense and they’ve also posted a 25.4% kRate vs. LHPs over the last two weeks. Since he threw 75 pitches in his 2021 debut, it would be reasonable to expect around 85 pitches this go ‘round as he works on getting fully stretched out for the remainder of the season. Historically, he pitches better at home and in 83 plate appearances, St. Louis is only hitting .183 against him with a .270 wOBA.

Team Stacks to Target 🎯

Disclaimer: There is no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two/three-man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.

⬆️🥞 Top Stacks: 🥞⬆️  

They weren’t exactly sneaky yesterday, and won’t be again today, but a Chicago White Sox offense that is nearing full strength, with Eloy Jimenez and now Luis Robert back in action, will be my favorite stack of the slate.

Detroit Tigers vs. Keegan Akin (LHP), BAL

There are some really nice hitting conditions out in Camden Yards today (warm w/ 10 mph winds blowing out) and Baltimore will be rolling out southpaw Keegan Akin onto the mound. Akin has posted a slate-worst 7.66 ERA (4.85 xFIP) and 1.74 WHIP on the season. Detroit has been excellent against lefty pitching lately as they have accounted for a 150 wRC+, .322 AVG, and .389 wOBA vs. LHPs over the last two weeks (141 PA). A bad O’s bullpen will come in behind Akin, so the attractive match-ups won’t stop once he is retired.

New York Yankees vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

It took nearly seven full innings for the boom-or-bust Yankees bats to finally wake up yesterday, and extra innings were needed for them to reach eight runs, but at least they finally came through. Hopefully, they can get some production in earlier tonight against a poor starter in Daniel Lynch (6.00 ERA, 4.84 xFIP, 1.59 WHIP, 16.4% kRate). The Yankees have a strong 120 wRC+ vs. LHPs in the last two weeks where they are also striking out just 19.8% of the time. A battered Royals bullpen, which allowed nearly all of the Yankees hits/runs and got stretched through multiple extra innings yesterday, will be handed the task of keeping the New York bats in check once Lynch is off the mound. The Yankees can score one or two runs just about as easily as they can score 10+. But this is certainly a great spot for them to succeed today, especially with the 90+ degree temps and 10-15 mph winds blowing out at the hitter-friendly Kauffman Stadium.

Low-Owned Stack That Just Might Work Out 🤔

Colorado Rockies vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

A Rockies stack… outside of Coors? Preposterous, right? Maybe not. The Rockies bats have simply been hot, even on the road at times lately. Their 150 wRC+ (which is a park-adjusted metric) vs. RHPs in the last two weeks leads the Majors and they’re batting .327 with a monster .423 wOBA, .289 ISO, and only a 19.6% kRate in that stretch. Jake Odorizzi has had some passable fantasy performances recently, but that doesn’t mean he’s been “good.” In his last five starts going back to July 9th, he has come away with a 7.25 ERA, 5.77 xFIP, 1.66 WHIP, and allowed eight home runs (3.2 HR/9) while striking out a mere 16.3% of batters. Opponents are hitting .298 with a .416 wOBA against him in that span. There Rockies hot streak could come to a halt today, but there’s plenty of potential for them to keep rolling as well.

One-Off Bats ☝️

OF Starling Marte | DK: $5.3k, FD: $3.9k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

2B Jonathan India | DK: $5.1k, FD: $3.8k | vs. Drew Smyly (LHP), ATL

OF Cedric Mullins | DK: $4.8k, FD: $3.3k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

1B/2B/SS Jake Cronenworth | DK: $3.9k, FD: $3.6k | vs. Braxton Garrett (LHP), MIA

1B Luke Voit | DK: $3.7k, FD: $3.1k | vs. Daniel Lynch (LHP), KC

2B Jorge Polanco | DK: $3.4k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Dallas Kuechel (LHP), CWS

Value Bats to Consider

Note: Value hitters often become more apparent closer to lock when guys either get bumped up in the batting order, get activated after a long stay on the IL, or when recent minor league call-ups get inserted into the lineup. The list below is just some current cheap hitting candidates who are already likely to start and have either been producing or are in strong spots to pay off their affordable salaries.

2B/OF Josh Harrison | DK: $3.1k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Triston McKenzie (RHP), CLE

OF Anthony Santander | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.7k | vs. Casey Mize (RHP), DET

SS Nick Ahmed | DK: $2.6k, FD: $2.4k | vs. Alex Wood (LHP), SF

OF Sam Hilliard | DK: $2.2k, FD: $2.8k | vs. Jake Odorizzi (RHP), HOU

OF Luis Robert | DK: $3.4K, FD: $2.7k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

OF Lewis Brinson | DK: $2k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Craig Stammen (RHP), SD

Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥

OF Eloy Jimenez | DK: $4.4k, FD: $3.4k | vs. Griffin Jax (RHP), MIN

After back-to-back two home run games, it’s officially heat check time for Eloy. Anyone who paid attention to the abbreviated 2020 MLB season is well aware that the White Sox getting Eloy back in the lineup would be massive for them down the stretch, and he didn’t take long to show why. It’s of course a limited sample size, but in 24 plate appearances vs. RHPs this season, Jimenez is batting .458 with an astronomical .688 wOBA and .792 ISO. All five of his homers have been at the expense of righties and if he can get two, maybe three, cracks at Griffin Jax, there is a strong possibility he continues to crush. Jax has shown very poor reverse splits, particularly in the power department where he is allowing a .292 ISO and 3.00 HR/9 Rate to RHBs. As if he needs the help, there are some pretty solid hitting conditions out in Minnesota today so don’t be shocked if Jimenez continues to rake.

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