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- Top MLB DFS Plays 8/10 | Finding the Midas Touch on a Monday
Top MLB DFS Plays 8/10 | Finding the Midas Touch on a Monday
By: Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @Ryan_Humphries on Twitter
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We’ll kick off the workweek with a healthy nine-gamer to dissect this evening. Perhaps the big question you have to ask yourself for this one is “to Coors or not to Coors?” That’s a primary talking point almost any time Coors Field is in play but today Denver will see near 90 degree conditions at the time of first pitch with some decently strong winds blowing out to left-center around 10 mph. Combined that hitter-friendly weather with the already home run friendly environment, and it’s certainly within the realm of possibility that a slew of dingers get delivered over the wall. So, what’s it gonna be? Are you playing Coors bats tonight or looking to take the leverage route by going underweight or just outright fading Rockies and D-Backs hitters? It’s worth some discussion for sure.
Today’s games with implied run totals and moneylines:
Weather Outlook ☁️☀️
CHW @ DET: There’s a chance we see some storms roll in near game time so a delay or postponement can’t be ruled out. Be sure to keep this game in mind as we get closer to lock. Wind is also set to be blowing in from center at 10+ mph.
TB @ BOS: Fairly warm and humid with winds blowing out to left 5-10 mph. Lower-end chance of some storm coverage in the area.
ARI @ COL: As mentioned in the intro, it’ll be very warm in Colorado this evening (near 90 degrees at first pitch) and the winds will be blowing out to left-center around 10 mph. Obvious advantage for the bats.
Pitchers to Consider ⚾
Kyle Gibson (RHP) | DK: $8.6k, FD: $8.7k | vs. SEA
Really the only stud pitcher on the board tonight is Patrick Corbin (DK: $10.4k, FD: $10.8k), and he’s definitely worth spending up on, but do be wary of the fact that he’s playing the Mets in back-to-back starts. Playing the same team twice within a week has shown to be problematic for many pitchers -- just something to keep in mind. When looking at Gibson, it’s comforting to see that he has been fully stretched out off the rip this season. He threw 93 pitches in his season debut and 103 pitches last week against Oakland. Seattle has shown some occasional offensive pop, but on the season they have just a .289 wOBA vs. RHPs (ranks 24th) alongside a 91 wRC+ and 25% kRate. The Rangers are a heavy -180 favorite and if you’re looking for a guy who should be considered fairly reliable tonight, Gibson looks like he could be your guy.
Dallas Keuchel (LHP) | DK: $7.8k, FD: $7.8k | @ DET
*Remember to check the weather for this game before locking anyone in.* Assuming this game plays without weather issues, Kuechel should probably be on your radar this evening. He already has three starts to his name this season (17.2 IP) and while he’s not exactly lighting things up, he’s been solid. Kuechel has posted a 2.55 ERA (3.41 xFIP), 0.96 WHIP, and .217 opponent AVG. He hasn’t been racking up the strikeouts, with just a 15.5% kRate, but we can likely assume that number will start to rise a bit soon -- though he isn’t exactly known for high K upside with just a 19.1% kRate for his career. In a bizarre twist, the Tigers offense has actually been… pretty good (???) this season and their 168 wRC+ and .407 wOBA versus LHPs ranks 1st in baseball in both categories. However, I’m very tempted to call “BS” on those numbers and I believe we can anticipate some regression from this mediocre lineup soon, maybe starting tonight. Kuechel has allowed an average exit velocity of just 83.8 mph so far in 2020, and combined with the 10+mph winds blowing in, it should be pretty tough for guys to hit homers off of him. So if he can just manage the base runners, he could turn in a solid performance across six or seven innings.
Others to Consider: Dustin May (DK: $7.7k, FD: $7.5k) vs. SD -- May is intriguing at these prices but limited pitch count is always a concern with any Dodger arm and he also has to face a Padres team with a ton of power in the lineup. Jon Gray (DK: $7k, FD: $6.5k) vs. ARI -- Eventually Gray is going to eclipse 25 DKFP/50 FDFP at home in Coors Field this season and hardly anyone is going to have him rostered. The D-Backs have struggled on offense for much of the season so far, so it might not be a bad idea to throw Gray out in a GPP lineup or two.
Team Stacks to Target 🎯
Disclaimer: There’s no rule saying you *have* to stack in MLB DFS. It’s just a super common method that GPP-winning lineups often deploy. Picking a bunch of one-off hitters and/or some two man mini-stacks can certainly take down big prizes as well.
Chalk Stacks: The Rockies, Diamondbacks, Nationals, and perhaps Astros all seem likely to be fairly chalky tonight. As always, there’s nothing wrong with stacking these teams since they’re in great spots, but be aware of the likely high ownership.
Oakland A's vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA
The A’s are a downright good team, and are winners of nine straight games, but there is definitely a ‘boom/bust’ aspect to their offense. Regardless, they have a ton of great bats in their lineup with plenty of pop. Against RHPs, they’re creating 43.3% Hard Contact (ranks 8th) with a 44.4% Fly Ball Rate (ranks 2nd). Julio Teheran likely isn’t fully stretched out yet, after tossing just 52 pitches across 2.2 innings in his season debut last week. So if he can only manage around three or four innings of work tonight, the A’s will get plenty of at-bats against an Angels bullpen that has posted a 4.91 xFIP this season -- the 6th worst in the league.
Texas Rangers vs. Justin Dunn (RHP), SEA
Dunn has only pitched a total of seven innings across his two starts (while giving up five earned runs and three homers) so it seems pretty likely he pitches maybe four or five innings tonight, at most. While he is a pitcher worth attacking, the real appeal with a Rangers stack here is the fact that they’ll get to face an awful Mariners bullpen for much of this game. Seattle’s bullpen has a terrible 6.78 ERA, 5.63 xFIP, 1.56 WHIP, and is giving up 2.18 HR/9. The Rangers offense hasn’t been great by any means but this will be perhaps one of the best spots they’ve been in thus far in the season.
The “Kinda Crazy Stack That Just Might Work Out”
New York Mets vs. Patrick Corbin (LHP), WAS
There really isn’t a team that stands out as a wildly insane stack option today so in this case, it’s never a terrible idea (from a GPP standpoint) to attack the top arm of the slate by stacking his opponents. If Corbin happens to come out sluggish or just doesn’t throw his best stuff, any Mets player that finds success is very likely to be <5% owned. As I mentioned previously, this will also be the second time the Mets are facing Corbin in the last week, which is a situation that often times benefits the hitters. These Mets hitters do have 12 HRs against Corbin, alongside a .347 ISO, in 130 plate appearances. The Nationals bullpen has also been pretty mediocre, so once Corbin is retired there is a window of opportunity there as well.
One-Off Hitters ☝️
OF Charlie Blackmon | DK: $5.8k, FD: $4.4k | vs. Robbie Ray (LHP), ARI
If you’re just looking to take a single piece of Coors tonight you have to imagine Blackmon is a good bet to put some fantasy points up. His .458 AVG is tops in baseball right now (min. 40 PA) and in 48 PA against Robbie Ray, Blackmon has a .435 AVG, .927 wOBA+ISO, five homers, 12 RBI, with three stolen bags. He has no problem hitting lefties and his career averages against both RHPs & LHPs is above .300, so he’s always a really trustworthy hitter even when opposing teams go to the bullpen to try to get a match-up advantage. Obviously, he’s not cheap, but Blackmon can easily reward you with some major production tonight.
3B Yoan Moncada | DK: $4.5k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Michael Fulmer (RHP), DET
Moncada has been pretty ‘feast or famine’ when it comes to production in games this season but he’s still sporting a .300 AVG with a .371 OBP, .381 wOBA, and .206 ISO. He’s swatted a couple homers out in the past week and has a shot to do the same again tonight. Fulmer may not go too deep into this game, but since the start of last season he’s allowed a slate-worst .215 ISO to LHBs. Moncada is a switch hitter but has historically fared better hitting lefty versus righties and has a career .213 ISO and 126 wRC+ versus RHPs.
2B Starlin Castro | DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.6k | vs. Steven Matz (LHP), NYM
Castro versus a lefty for these low salaries? Yes, please! Castro is hitting .333 against LHPs over his last 150 games and, in the early goings of this season, he is 8-for-10 against southpaw pitchers. Matz is certainly a pitcher worth attacking tonight, and gave up five earned runs on seven hits (two HRs) in his last start, which was against the Nats, so he may be in for another rough outing tonight. Castro should, once again, be batting out of the three hole and has a very wide pathway to returning value.
Home Run Call of the Day 💣💥
1B Matt Olson | DK: $4.7k, FD: $3.5k | vs. Julio Teheran (RHP), LAA
I mentioned this in his player chat this morning, but Olson is gonna be my guy to go yard tonight. He may be hitting just .164 this season but his .125 BABIP indicates that he is getting very, very unlucky (even more so against RHPs with a .080 BABIP split). Despite the low hitting average, he is still holding a 126 wRC+, largely due to the fact that he has still been able to knock some balls out of the park (5 HRs on the season). Historically, Teheran has struggled more with lefty hitters and gives up a considerable amount of power to that side of the plate, so Olson will have a solid opportunity at finding his sixth dinger of the season this evening.
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