Ryan Humphries | @N1TRO on LineStar | @NitroDFS on Twitter

🔊 8/1 On Deck Podcast with Joe Pisapia and Chris Meaney

• 9:49 Toronto @ Baltimore

• 12:10 Rays Bats vs. Cashner

• 14:04 Gerrit Cole @ Indians

• 16:15 Flaherty vs. Cubs

• 17:58 Reds @ Braves

• 20:05 Cole or Kershaw?

• 21:35 Betting Lines & HR Calls

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That was a pretty entertaining trade deadline yesterday, no? It was sorta “so-so” and then the Astros made the major grab of the day minutes before the deadline by reeling in Zack Greinke from the Diamondbacks, mid-game no less. There were about 20 other moves that were made which will have at least a small impact on teams moving forward. All-in-all, I’d say the new ‘hard’ deadline added a nice bit of surprise and excitement that the previous deadline format didn’t exactly provide. But now, looking towards tonight’s DFS action, we have a little six-gamer to keep us entertained. The night is headlined by a pair of aces, Gerrit Cole and Clayton Kershaw, as well as four offenses who currently carry an implied run total above five runs (Atlanta, Baltimore, Toronto, and Boston). It may be a struggle to get one of the ace pitchers in your lineups alongside some pieces of the offenses in prime spots, so finding value will be crucial today. Let’s see what we can cook up today!

Match-ups with implied totals and moneylines:

Weather Outlook 🌩️

CIN @ ATL: Our primary weather concerns will come in Atlanta. There’s roughly about a 25% chance of storms rolling through the area. They should be somewhat scattered but SunTrust Park could certainly see one make its way over the stadium. We should have a better idea of the outlook here closer to first pitch. For now, I won’t be avoiding any players here.

Stay up to date on all weather conditions and confirmed lineups as soon as they are released over in LineStar chat & on the Daily Dashboard!

Pitchers to Consider

Addressing the Aces: Obviously, you don’t need me to tell you who the two best pitchers on the slate are. We should expect a strong result from both guys, but if I had to choose one, I’m likely going with Kershaw. You get to save a few hundred dollars and the match-up is definitely more ideal. Kershaw racked up 28 DKFP/49 FDFP at home in his last outing against the Padres and now they’ll be without a guy who has 27 HRs and an above average 117 wRC+ this year with Franmil Reyes shipped off to Cleveland. It’s also nice to have that “late night hammer” with SD @ LAD being the only West Coast game of the evening, but that's more of a personal preference. All that being said, Cole’s pretty much match-up proof and he’s shown to have more upside than CK this season, so the best route is to probably to get exposure to both where you can.

Asher Wojciechowski (DK: $7.1k, FD: $8.1k) | RHP | BAL vs. TOR

I’m finally getting pretty good about spelling “Wojciechowski” without tabbing over to spell check every time I write that name out. So this man is setting up to be fairly popular today, but it’s fully warranted. He’s coming off of two outstanding games against a pair of very good offenses, in the Angels and Red Sox, in which he went 2-0 while allowing just two earned runs across 14.1 innings alongside four hits, three walks (0.49 WHIP), and 16 strikeouts (32% kRate). You absolutely can't count on those sort of numbers to continue, but Toronto is by far an easier opponent to tackle when stacked up against his previous two foes. Against RHPs, the Blue Jays rank either dead smack in the middle or in the lower half of most meaningful offensive categories across the last month: .240 AVG (23rd), .319 wOBA (18th), and 99 wRC+ (15th). They do bring some power to the table, with a .206 team ISO (8th) and Wojciechowski has surrendered five homers in his 30 innings pitched this year (1.50 HR/9). So don’t be surprised if one of the Blue Jays power bats smacks one or two out of the park off of him, especially in a hitter friendly park like Camden Yards. But Wojciechowski’s 3.60 ERA is nearly mirrored by his 3.66 SIERA so I’d expect him to limit any significant damage done against this below average Toronto offense.

Max Fried (DK: $5.8k, FD: $7.5k) | LHP | ATL vs. CIN

The DraftKings pricing here doesn’t make sense, so consider him a leading SP2 candidate today alongside Woj. Keep in mind, this is our one game with poor weather potential so check the forecast for Atlanta before you go too heavy on either pitcher in this game. Fried hasn’t been ultra consistent this season, but over his last six starts (dating back to June 19th), he’s thrown 32.1 innings while posting a strong 3.02 xFIP alongside a 26.6% kRate. His 4.45 ERA and .302 AVG allowed doesn’t look great on paper but when you consider he has a .398 BABIP in that time, some positive regression is due to continue. Cincinnati has some solid offensive weapons throughout their lineup, but remember that they’ll now be without Yaseil Puig and Scooter Gennett. The Braves may be looking to keep their starters’ arms fresh for a playoff run, so don’t be surprised if Fried is capped at around 90 pitches and five innings of work. But, for the price (especially on DK), he should be able to do plenty in that time to return strong value.

Team Stacks to Target

Keep in mind, there’s no rule saying you *have* to roll out four and five man stacks. Sometimes mixing and matching two and three man stacks with some one-off hitters is the better route to take in order to give yourself more exposure to different offenses.

Atlanta Braves (LHBs) vs. Anthony DeSclafani (RHP), CIN

DeSclafani has extreme splits and I would definitely look to attack him almost exclusively with lefties, especially with him pitching on the road. He’s faced 106 left-handed hitters on the road this season to which he has allowed a .337 AVG, .411 wOBA, 1.86 WHIP, and 2.45 HR/9 on 42.5% Hard Contact. That will put Freddie Freeman, Ozzie Albies, Ender Inciarte, and Brian McCann squarely on my radar. For a complete punt, Johan Camargo has a four game hit streak going and may not be the worst guy to save some salary with. However, aside from Freddie, the other Braves lefties previously mentioned are very affordable on both sites so you may not need to go down to Camargo. I’m taking Freeman as my home run call this evening. 💣

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Joey Lucchesi (LHP), SD

I get the feeling that when many people look at this game, they’re pretty much only considering whether or not they’re playing Kershaw (or maybe Machado against him with his BvP history) while ignoring most of the hitters. However, we have to remember that the Dodgers average plenty of runs at home (5.37 runs/game - ranks fifth) along with the most home runs per game at home (1.76 HRs/game). Lucchesi is a quality pitcher, but he has struggled on the road this year en route to a 6.48 ERA, 4.78 xFIP and 1.73 HR/9 while allowing a .290 AVG/.346 wOBA. Very stark differences when compared to his home splits. Aside from Bellinger, I think we’re getting at least a slight discount on most other Dodger bats here, so I’ll look to get some exposure to guys like AJ Pollock, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy. Kristopher Negron has also been swinging freely since being traded over from the Mariners and he’s dirt cheap.

One-Off Hitters

Here I’ll highlight players at [roughly] different price points (high, mid, low) that could be used as a ‘one-off’ piece in lineups -- or perhaps part of a two man mini-stack.

Jose Altuve (DK: $4.8k, FD: $4.3k) | 2B | vs. RHP Danny Salazar

Altuve got off to a bit of a rocky start this season in the hitting department and he was forced to miss a number of games due to injury. As such, I feel he is going a bit overlooked at the moment but he appears to be back to his old, productive ways. The month of July treated Altuve very well where he posted a .388 AVG, .451 wOBA, .265 ISO, 1.087 OPS, and 191 wRC+. He has multi-hit games in 10 of his last 16 starts. Altuve and the Astros will face off with Danny Salazar tonight, who hasn’t made a major league start since 2017. Salazar’s numbers across his six minor league rehab starts look promising but there is still likely some rust to be shaken off at the MLB level. Altuve has had a bit of success against Salazar as well, hitting .273 against him in 12 plate appearances with a home run and three RBI.

Paul Goldschmidt (DK: $4.4k, FD: $4.3k) | 1B | vs. LHP Jon Lester

If you haven’t been paying attention, Goldy is back! In his last nine games, he is hitting .378 with a soaring .558 wOBA, .622 ISO, and SEVEN home runs with 14 RBI and a 254 wRC+. Is that sustainable? Maybe for 2001 Barry Bonds. But still, ya want to strike while the iron is hot, and Goldy’s bat is definitely scorching. Oh, and Goldschmidt also has a .545 AVG against Lester in 14 plate appearances. Lester is obviously a very good pitcher but away from Wrigley Field this year, he has a very average 4.42 ERA and 4.81 xFIP while allowing 42.5% Hard Contact and 38.5% Fly Balls. Goldy is under-priced on DraftKings given his latest resurgence.

Jose Martinez (DK: $3.5k, FD: $2.7k) | OF | vs. LHP Jon Lester

Going back to the Cards here with Martinez, who simply hits lefties too well to be this cheap. Against southpaws, Martinez has a .386 AVG, .473 wOBA, .333 ISO, and a .429 OBP with an excellent 192 wRC+ and he strikes out just 12.7% of the time. Martinez has 10 HRs this year, five have come against lefties. Note that he has has 199 fewer plate appearances against LHPs (63) than he has RHPs (262). Martinez rarely breaks through for a huge fantasy day but he also seldomly puts up a goose egg. Martinez and Goldschmidt will bat right next to each other at second and third in the order, so I can really get behind a little two-man stack here.

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Best of luck today! Don't forget to check out the "On Deck" podcast with Joe Pisapia & Chris Meaney. You can find it linked at the top of the page!

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